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| Wednesday, October 9, 2024 |
| It's Wednesday, which means it's matchup day for FFT Newsletter readers! This week's matchup notes will span both Wednesday's and Thursday's newsletter, and the research will be derived entirely from the Fantasy Points Data Suite! The Fantasy Points Data Suite crew will be joining Dan and I on Thursday's Beyond the Box Score podcast, and so I decided to lean entirely on their product for this week's research to hopefully learn a bit more about it and spark ideas for our Thursday conversation. |
| Before we dive in, here are a few reminders for the FFT fam: |
| 1. If you did not catch the Beyond the Box Score podcast episode on FFT that I record with Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier every Monday, you can listen to that here! |
| 2. This Thursday's Beyond the Box Score guests will be Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints Data. If you follow me on Twitter, these two need no introduction. They're two of my favorite analysts, and the Data Suite is my favorite Fantasy football research resource. We're going to cover a ton of ground in that episode to introduce listeners to the capabilities of the Data Suite and give actionable Fantasy takeaways as we look forward to Week 6 and beyond! |
| 3. Each Friday, we'll go 'In The Lab' in this space: |
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| If you want to be part of Friday's newsletter post, feel free to join us in the lab! Fill out this google form, and then check back on Friday! |
| Under Pressure -- how might blitz/pressure rates impact Week 6? |
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| First things first, check out this cool tool that I did not know existed in the Data Suite: |
| If you scroll over the 'Team' tab, you'll find 'Coverage Matrix' and 'OL/DL Matchups' options. I use the Coverage Matrix for the matchups notes write-up every week! I haven't spent any time with the OL/DL Matchups tool, though! |
| This appears to be a simple tool that attempts to adjust for context regarding pass rush pressures and rushing yards gained before contact. I plan to ask the FP Data team more about how it's calculated on Thursday's episode. Below, you'll find the defenses that have generated pressure at the highest rate relative to expectations. |
| Best pass rushes: |
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| Worst pass rushes: |
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| We saw the Colts' lack of pressure in full display in Week 5. |
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| On the opposite side of the ball, we can quantify the lines that are doing the best/worst job at protecting their quarterbacks. Only the Browns have a worse pressure rate over expectation than the Patriots, and New England turns the keys to the nearly broken-down car to Drake Maye for a matchup against a Houston pass rush that is the second-best in the NFL according to the FP Data Suite. |
| Worst pass protection: |
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| Notice that the Commanders rank sixth in this adjusted metric and have a much lower pressure rate than the teams immediately surrounding in the rankings. That's a good exemplification of why adjusting for average time to throw is important. When not improvising, Jayden Daniels gets the ball out extremely quickly in the Kliff Kingsbury-designed offense. The overall pressure rate looks low as a result, but I don't believe that is actually representative of the quality of Washington's pass protection. |
| Best pass protection: |
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| Another great way to evaluate defenses and pass rushes using the Data Suite is to click on the 'Passing' tab at the top and then choose the team view: 'Defense' in the 'Advanced Passing' section. You'll find all sorts of dope metrics here. |
| Some of my favorite metrics from the advanced pass defense offering: |
| TTP -- Time to pressure. You can sort by TTP and find that the Browns lead the NFL with an average time to pressure of just 2.32 seconds. Terrifying! Meanwhile, the Panthers rank dead last with a time of 2.85 seconds. It might not seem like much, but that additional 0.5 seconds makes all the difference in the world when it comes to throwing with timing. |
| 1Read% -- Opponent first read target rate. You can sort by 1Read% and find that the Browns, again, are an outlier. Cleveland has a league-high opponent first-read target rate of 79%. Makes sense! Quarterbacks know that the pressure is coming quickly! And the Browns use a ton of man coverage, so a quarterback's first read may often face one single defender to beat and create an open target. At least, that's the hope! If not, the quarterback is in trouble vs. this pass rush. |
| aDOT -- Average depth of target. You can sort by aDOT and see that -- you guessed it -- the Browns have a top-three opponent aDOT of 9.5 yards. Compare that to defenses like the Chargers (5.3 yards), Falcons (5.7), and Seahawks (5.8), and it's clear how different matchups can be on a week-to-week basis. |
| We're really only scratching the surface here. You can also use advanced filters to look at specific subsets of plays. For instance, you can look at how often opposing offenses have passed the ball to the deep middle area of the field against each defense and how effective those passes were. |
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| There are so many cool capabilities! I have to create a ton of content each week, so I really don't have the time that I'd love to spend playing around with the Data Suite's filterization each week. The correct way to phrase that surely is filter customization, but I initially typed filterization, and I like it. It feels fitting when talking about the seemingly endless possibilities to be found in the Data Suite. |
| Please, if you have the time to dig for your own nuggets in the Data Suite, do it! Send me any cool findings that you unearth! If you have never tried it out, you can use promo code "GIBBS25" at signup for 25% off. |
| I'm not here to sell you anything! I'm just giving you options if you are interested. I'm here to show you how dope this information is. It really adds to my football experience. I don't have a football background (I joked about my middle school experience yesterday. Surely none of you super serious folk mistook that for real commentary on what life as an NFL athlete is like), and so data has been a way for me to slowly peel back the layers in understanding what I'm seeing on the field. I hope to help you further enjoy your own football journey, too! |
| Here are the Week 6 pressure-based matchup notes that I found: |
| Jalen Hurts' first matchup out of the bye week: The Cleveland Browns |
| That scary Browns defense that I just highlighted is fresh off of a humbling loss to Jayden Daniels and a Washington Commanders offense that put up 34 points in Week 5. What can we expect from Jalen Hurts fresh off of his bye week as both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith presumably make their return to the field? |
| The Fantasy Points Data Suite's Offensive/Defensive Line Matchup Tool has the Eagles pass-blocking graded as being at the third-largest disadvantage of any team in Week 6. |
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| Even though the Eagles have a decent pressure over expectation, Cleveland's pass rush is imposing enough to push this into top-three territory. Interestingly, we see the opposite story told with Cleveland taking the fourth spot -- the Browns' pass protection has been so bad that even Philly's middling pass rush grades out as being in one of the most advantageous spots. This tool is so cool! |
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| Hurts has been respectable when pressured, especially considering he's been without his top target. In 2023, Hurts was above league average in most metrics when pressured. His underlying rates (proprietary Fantasy Points Data metrics such as highly accurate ball, catchable ball, etc) have dipped slightly, but I think that's mostly due to a seriously diminished first-read target rate, which is a product of being without A.J. Brown (and DeVonta Smith in Week 4). Hurts is actually one of 11 passers with a completion percentage over expectation when pressured in 2024. If Hurts is able to hold up and deliver accurate strikes, I think that Brown and Smith will carve this defense up. |
| Rookie Spencer Rattler may face Todd Bowles in his first start |
| Okay, I lied. In this one instance, I used Tru Media. The FP Data Suite doesn't have collegiate data. |
| When blitzed at the collegiate level, Rattler had the third-lowest off-target rate among 63 quarterbacks drafted in Round 5 or higher since 2017. He got the ball out quickly and was much less likely to attack deep when blitzed. This was the case at both Oklahoma and South Carolina. He was significantly more likely to target the RB position and TE position than the rest of the recent QB prospects when blitzed. |
| If starting in Week 6, Rattler will face one of the biltz-heaviest defenses in the NFL. If his collegiate data is any indication, he won't be rattled. We'll likely see a lot of Alvin Kamara in this matchup. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and the play-action downfield attacking that we've seen from the New Orleans pass game. |
| Keep Captain Kirk clean! |
| When not pressured, Kirk Cousins has the third-highest accurate ball rate and is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the lowest off-target rate. Cousins has focused on the short and intermediate areas of the field to start his Falcons tenure; only Deshaun Watson has a lower average depth of target when not facing pressure. |
| Carolina's time to pressure is the highest in the NFL, and only the Colts have a worse pressure rate over expectation than the Panthers. This is probably the worst pass rush in the NFL. |
| Below, you'll find the Atlanta Falcons receiving breakdown from the plays on which Cousins has not been pressured: |
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| Drake London's per-route rates (0.35 TPRR = 35% target per route run rate. He also has a 2.91 yard per route run rate) really pop, but it's noteworthy that just about every player is going to see an increase to efficiency when a QB is kept clean. I'm actually a bit concerned that this could be a spot where London doesn't deliver a high Fantasy point total, but we'll get to that in more detail later. |
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| Green Bay's pass rush needs to step it up |
| According to the Data Suite, the offensive line at the biggest advantage over its opposition in Week 6 is Arizona's. Green Bay's pass rush has lowkey been a colossal disappointment in 2024. The Packers rank fourth-worst in pressure over expectation and eighth in time to pressure, and I know that ESPN Analytics had them ranked dead last in pass rush win rate going into Week 5. We're talking FP Data today, though! |
| According to the Data Suite, Trey McBride is one of the few players who has been more efficient when his QB has been pressured. Kyler has been much improved vs. pressure in 2023 after posting some of the league's worst data vs. pressure in 2023. Historically, he's not dealt well with pressure. When pressured in 2024, Murray has leaned on McBride and Greg Dortch. Marvin Harrison Jr. has just a 12% target per route run rate when Murray has been pressured. That rate climbs to 29% when Murray has been kept clean. I'd expect to see Murray take more downfield shots to MHJ and Michael Wilson (27% TPRR without pressure) in this matchup. |
| Is this the Dontayvion Wicks week we've been looking for? |
| On the other side of the ball, Jordan Love and company face an Arizona defense that ranks third-to-last in pressure over expectation and second-to-last in time to pressure. When the QB has not been pressured, Jayden Reed's target per route run rate spikes to 30%, while Wicks, of course, has a 40% rate. Do what you will with that information! |
| My guess is that the Packers lean on the ground game in this matchup. Offenses typically don't throw deep a whole lot vs. Arizona. I'll cover that in more detail as a Josh Jacobs-focused highlight in tomorrow's newsletter. |
| Either or both Bucs receivers could put up a big Week 6 point total |
| Target per route run rate when Baker Mayfield has been kept clean: |
33% - Chris Godwin
28% - Mike Evans |
| Yards per route run with Mayfield clean: |
3.25 - Godwin
2.27 - Evans |
| The Bucs face a Saints defense that ranks 12th in pressure rate over expectation but has the seventh-highest average time to pressure. New Orleans has gotten pressure, but not necessarily quickly. Chase Young has been a revelation, but he'll square off against Tristan Wirfs and a Bucs offense that gets the ball out extremely quickly. I'd expect a ton of Chris Godwin targets against a Saints defense that often is gashed by slot receivers. JuJu Smith-Schuster just totaled 130 yards against New Orleans on Monday night. |
| Week 6 Coverage Data |
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Surely, this has to be the Bijan get-right game, right?!
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| The Panthers have a league-low situation-neutral (score within seven points) opponent pass rate of just 43%. Offenses have chosen to go super run-heavy vs. this defense. The league average is 55%, and only six teams have a rate below 50%. |
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| We saw in Week 5 that Carolina's defense can be beaten down the field. With little pressure presented by the Panthers, Caleb Williams finally got his season on track. Maybe we see Kirk Cousins keep slinging it! Atlanta has one of the highest situation-neutral pass rates. |
| The Falcons are 6.5-point favorites in this game, though. We could see an early lead, in which case maybe Atlanta takes this as an opportunity to get the run game going. |
| As mentioned earlier, Cousins has not looked to attack deep this season. Carolina uses a ton of single-high coverage. Specifically, the Panthers present the most Cover-3-heavy scheme. They just overtook Gus Bradley's Colts for the top spot following Week 5. I bring this up because Drake London has surprisingly subpar splits throughout his career vs. this coverage type. I don't know what to make of it. Typically, Cover-3 leads to more opportunities for opposing WR1's. |
| Displayed below is Atlanta's 2024 receiving data vs. Cover-3: |
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| London has just a 20% target per route run rate to go with a 1.85 yard-per-route-run rate. Mooney's rates are even worse! For whatever reason, we've seen Cousins lean more heavily on Ray-Ray McCloud and Bijan Robinson when facing Cover 3. |
| In 2023, London had a 17% TPRR vs. Cover-3. Kyle Pitts had a 24% rate; maybe he'll have another decent game. My guess is that we simply see a much more boring game from Atlanta than in Week 5. And that will probably be a good thing for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. |
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| The Panthers have given up SIX touchdowns to the RB position over the past two games. You can find defensive game logs for free here! |
| A.J. Brown to make up for missed time? |
| Only Tyreek Hill (4.81) and Nico Collins (3.83) averaged more yards per route run vs. single-high safety coverage than A.J. Brown (3.77) in 2023. In 2024, DeVonta Smith has been Philly's top target (36% target per route run rate) vs. single-high looks, but of course, we know how dangerous AJB can be. |
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| It is malicious behavior to ask a cornerback to exist on an island with Brown and no extra safety help, but this Browns organization clearly cares not for morality. The Browns have used single-high safety coverage 76% of the time in 2024, and the Panthers (71%) come in a distant second. |
| If ever there's a matchup to start Calvin Ridley in... |
| Calvin Ridley just had an opportunity to rest up and watch some football from home this Sunday. There's a chance that he was tuned into NFL Red Zone for Brian Thomas Jr.'s big catch-and-run down the sideline vs. Indy's single-high safety coverage just as FFT Newsletters were celebrating another big W. I like to think to myself that Ridley imagined himself doing the sideline striding knowing that next up on his schedule was the same Indianapolis Colts defense that his former QB shredded in Week 5. |
| The Colts get next to no pressure and use Cover-3 at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence threw for 371 yards just one week after Justin Fields threw for 312 yards just one week after Caleb Williams threw for 363 yards vs. this defense. Maybe there's hope yet. Maybe even Will Levis can do it. |
| In 2023, Calvin Ridley had a 28% TPRR and 2.29 YPRR vs. Cover-3. When facing any other coverage type, his rates were 20% and 1.39. That's a massive difference! |
| In 2024, it is DeAndre Hopkins who has the highest target per route run rate among the Titans when facing Cover-3, but the team has not faced much Cover-3. This is a coverage type that Hopkins has performed well against in the past, and it's possible that we'll see his role expanded following the bye. Ridley is, of course, a risky start. But this is possibly the most inviting coverage matchup available to him. |
| BTJ fever burns on |
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| Next up is a much tougher defense in the Chicago Bears. Jacksonville's pass protection has been surprisingly competent and certainly has momentum after manhandling the Colts in Week 5. This matchup will likely come down to the battle in the trenches, as BTJ has proven capable of winning against any secondary. And the Bears secondary is banged up heading into this game, to boot. |
| So, why are we talking about BTJ this late in the write-up and not in the 'Under Pressure' section? Would you believe that Thomas Jr. is a vehement David Bowie hater? Not true, I made that up. Blatant slander seems to be the only way to find fault in this man at the moment. |
| BTJ is featured in the coverage matchup section because he again faces a defense that specializes in Cover-3. And after last week's eruption, only Ja'Marr Chase has a higher yards-per-route-run rate vs. Cover-3 than BTJ in 2024. Perhaps more importantly, Christian Kirk has been invisible to Trevor Lawrence vs. Cover-3, dating back to 2023. And perhaps most importantly, Trevor Lawrence has been at his least-bad when facing Cover 3. |
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| When facing two-high safeties, Lawrence's top targets have been Kirk and Travis Etienne. Thomas Jr. has just a 20% target per route run rate vs. two-high. When facing single-high, BTJ has a 27% TPRR. That's WR1 stuff. He is again a top-20 Fantasy WR in my rankings, even though I hold a healthy amount of respect for Chicago's perimeter CB pairing of Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. |
| Ladd McConkey's breakout season might just keep hummin' along |
| The Chargers again face a top cover corner in Week 6. I very much doubt that we see Justin Herbert go out of his way to test Pat Surtain Jr. in coverage against Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston. Fortunately, Surtain has spent over 90% of his time on the perimeter this season. |
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| Ah, crap. That screenshot is Tru Media sourced, that's not Fantasy Points Data. I'm sorry. I lied to you. Not all of the research in this write-up was from data.fantasypoints.com. |
| Oh well. I already tweeted it. And I need to wrap this up and get started on the show notes for the FP Data podcast. |
| To quote Deshaun Watson, "No one's perfect." So true, Deshaun. What an honest guy. |
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| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Adam, Dan, and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! We do a weekly recap on Mondays and a deep dive with a guest every Thursday; you can find those on YouTube! |
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