| | | | Monday, April 28, 2025 | | Before we get to the meat of today's newsletter, a couple of injuries to know about about two very high-end pitchers. | | First up, we had Logan Gilbert exiting his Saturday start due to a right elbow injury. It ended up being relatively minor, as far as these things go, as Gilbert was diagnosed with a Grade 1 flexor strain, an injury that did land him on the IL and will see him shut down for two weeks. He'll be re-evaluated then to determine if he can resume throwing, but as a general rule, you shouldn't assume the best-case scenario when it comes to pitchers and their elbows. The average pitcher misses 57 days due to a flexor strain, per BaseballProspectus.com's Recovery Dashboard tool -- with just five of 21 players in the database returning in fewer than 30 days. We probably won't see Gilbert until June even if there are no setbacks. | | The other significant pitcher injury was to Tyler Glasnow, and I'd anticipate a similar timetable, though that is just speculation at this point. Glasnow left his start just hours ago on Sunday at this point, so maybe it isn't even worth speculating on. It's just, given Glasnow's injury history -- which includes nine IL stints in the majors, though no shoulder issues since 2016 -- I expect the Dodgers to take every precaution with him, even if it's relatively minor. | | One problem with both injuries? There just aren't many good pitching options widely available on the waiver-wire right now. I wrote about the top waiver-wire targets Sunday afternoon, and starting pitcher was especially hard to find good options for, especially if you need immediate help. If you do need immediate help, we've got Scott White's top sleeper pitchers for Week 6 in the rest of today's newsletter, along with everything else you need to know before setting your lineups. | | Let's get to it: | | | | Week 6 Preview | | | | Before we get to everything you need to know from this weekend's action, let's get those lineups set, with some help from Scott White and I. | | Week 6 waiver targets | | The actual highlight of this week's waiver wire is on the relief pitcher side, where a couple of high-end closers lost their jobs (temporarily) while a few other situations have come into focus unexpectedly. So, if you need saves, there are plenty available right now, at least: | C: Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins (48%)1B: Pavin Smith, Diamondbacks (53%)
2B: Jorge Polanco, Mariners (56%) 3B: Noelvi Marte, Reds (55%)SS: Josh H. Smith, Rangers (51%)OF: Austin Hays, Reds (62%), Jordan Beck, Rockies (28%), Andy Pages, Dodgers (13%) SP: Reese Olson, Tigers (78%), Colin Rea, Cubs (65%), Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers (28%), Ryan Weathers, Marlins (24%) | | For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. | | Week 6 sleeper hitters | | Best hitter matchups for Week 6 | 1. Twins @CLE4, @BOS3
2. Giants @SD2, COL4
3. Mets @WAS1, ARI3, @STL3
4. Reds STL4, WAS3
5. Brewers @CHW3, CHC3 | | | | Worst hitter matchups for Week 6 | 1. White Sox MIL3, HOU3
2. Diamondbacks @NYM3, @PHI3
3. Padres SF2, @PIT3
4. Angels @SEA2, DET4
5. Rays KC3, @NYY3 | | Top sleeper hitters for Week 6 | | Austin Hays, OF, Reds STL4, WAS3 (55%)TJ Friedl, OF, Reds STL4, WAS3 (64%)Sal Frelick, OF, Brewers @CHW3, CHC3 (70%)Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins @LAD3, ATH3 (38%)Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds STL4, WAS3 (38%) | | Week 6 sleeper pitchers | | You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. | | Top sleeper pitchers for Week 6 | | Reese Olson, Tigers at HOU, at LAA (78%)Griffin Canning, Mets at WAS, at STL (42%) Justin Verlander, Giants vs. COL (61%) Jose Soriano, Angels vs. DET (75%)Hayden Wesneski, Astros vs. DET (61%) | | | | Weekend Standouts | | Good pitchers | | Paul Skenes, Pirates @LAD: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – I was hanging out with some friends on Friday, and someone asked me, "What's up with Paul Skenes?" Skenes had, to be clear, a 2.87 ERA and 0.80 WHIP at the time of the asking, albeit with 30 strikeouts in 31.1 innings, so there's no way you could say he had been bad or even struggling. But the strikeouts had been slightly less plentiful right up until he faced that vaunted Dodgers lineup. The strikeout rate is still down 5.6 points from 2024, but he still has seven different swing-and-miss pitches, all of which limit damage, and he continues to pound the strike zone – an effort to be more efficient and give the Pirates more innings. Maybe he won't be the league leader in strikeouts if he keeps pitching to contact, but here's the thing: There's still a ton of strikeout upside even if Skenes isn't intentionally seeking them out. He's fine. | | Joe Ryan, Twins vs. LAA: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K – It feels like it's been a bit of an up-and-down season for Ryan, but the truth is, the good has far outweighed the bad so far – he has given up one or fewer run in four of his six starts, with 10 of 12 coming across the other two. Otherwise, his strikeout rate and walk rates are within spitting distance of last year's, and even the loud contact he has given up has mostly been off his two least-used pitches – everything but the sinker and slider has an expected wOBA of .292 or less. Despite diminished velocity, Ryan mostly looks just fine to me, and if there's any kind of buy-low window here, I'd take it. | | Shane Baz, Rays @SD: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – That's now at least six innings and no more than two runs allowed in four of his five games this season. Baz is missing a ton of bats with his curveball and changeup, and when he isn't, he's generating a ton of weak contact, often in the former of either grounders or weakly hit fly balls (his 13.4% pop-up rate is nearly double the league average). I will note that Baz is maintaining his 32% strikeout rate despite the fact that he is pitching in the strike zone a ton (56.8% of his pitches have been in the zone; 48.7% is MLB average) and generating chases at a very low rate (24.1%; average is 28.5%). That's a lotta called strikes he's relying on, and I don't know if that's the most sustainable path to success. The good news is that hitters simply aren't taking advantage of it right now, and he's continued last year's success on balls in play, sporting a .321 xwOBA on contact, a sign that hitters are struggling to pick him up despite pitching in the zone as often as he has. I have my concerns, but alarm bells certainly aren't going off yet. | | Robbie Ray, Giants vs. TEX: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – The Ray-heads out there needed this one. He mixed in his curveball more than he had in any other start this season, and maybe that helped the rest of the arsenal play up – or maybe he was just facing a Rangers lineup that hasn't really been up to snuff this season. He had 23 swinging strikes, so the rest of the arsenal was working, including that new changeup, which had five swinging strikes on nine swings and generated a bunch of awkward swings on pitches out of the zone. Given his command struggles to open the season, this was all a welcome sign, and hopefully enough to make sure none of you dropped him. | | Seth Lugo, Royals vs. HOU: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – The results are more or less right where you hoped they would be, with a 3.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP for the season now. But Lugo hasn't been the same guy. His key metrics have all moved in the wrong direction – his strikeout rate is down from 21.7 to 19.6%, which isn't a huge deal, but his walk rate is up 3.4%, and his expected wOBA on contact allowed is up from .354 to .394. The latter was the key argument for why Lugo could continue to outrun his peripherals so that especially looks like a red flag. I'd be looking to sell high on Lugo – though, to be fair, I wasn't especially high on him, either last season or this preseason. | | Nathan Eovaldi , Rangers @SF: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – There have been some bumps in the road, but Eovaldi is sitting here with a 2.21 ERA, thanks in large part to career-best strikeout and walk rates. Whether you think that is especially likely to prove sustainable is a point on which reasonable people can disagree, and it is at least worth noting that Eovaldi has continued to eschew his four-seamer for his splitter and curveball, both of which are excellent swing-and-miss pitches. Given his decline velocity, this is probably the right move, though count me on the side of those who don't expect this to continue. He's another fairly obvious sell-high candidate without even taking into account his usual tendency to fade after hot starts. | | Nick Lodolo, Reds @COL: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Lodolo continues to be one of the more confounding pitchers in baseball, this time following up his two worst starts of the season with nine strikeouts over seven shutout innings at Coors Field. His control continues to be much better than it's ever been, but even after the big showing Sunday he still has just an 18.9% strikeout rate, by far the lowest of his career. His curveball shape remains significantly different than it has been in years past, generating significantly less horizontal break than ever before, which is probably the primary reason for the strikeout dip. If he can continue to run elite walk rates while generating weak contact, this approach can work, but it's not one I want to bet on with someone whose command has been as inconsistent as Lodolo's in the past. | | Clay Holmes , Mets vs. WAS: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – It's a good thing Holmes has that changeup because his primary pitches have not managed the transition to the starting rotation particularly well. His slider and sweeper were once really good swing-and-miss pitches for him, but not his whiff rate on his sweeper is down 14 points from last season, while the slider is down from 40.7% to 16.1%. I'm inclined to think those numbers will go up moving forward, but that's a total hunch, given the role change. I suspect Holmes will remain pretty useful moving forward, but I don't buy him as a sub-3.00 pitcher moving forward, especially as the innings continue to pile up – he's already thrown about half as many innings this season as in any of his previous four. I think we're more likely to see an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00. | | Tyler Mahle, Rangers @SF: 5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K – I bet you're tired of me calling successful pitchers "sell-high candidates," but we've got one more for you here. Mahle has an ERA near 1.00 through six starts, despite more than five strikeouts just once, leading to a K-BB% rate of just 10.7%, the 62nd-highest out of 85 qualified starters. I think Mahle is a lot more likely to be dropped at some point than to be a must-start pitcher moving forward. | | Justin Verlander, Giants vs. TEX: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Verlander took a tough-luck loss in this one, but this was probably the best he's looked all season. There's still been some loud contact, including seven hard-hits over 95 mph in this one, but Verlander is still showing some interesting skills, including a 12.9% swinging strike rate and 3.83 xERA. As underwhelming as he's been, I don't know if Verlander is totally finished – and I would stream him against the Rockies this week. | | Tylor Megill, Mets @WAS: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K – Megill is a solid pitcher capable of some really impressive strikeout numbers, but there's a ceiling to how much value he can provide in Fantasy thanks to often iffy command – this was his first start finishing the sixth inning so far this season. | | Colin Rea, Cubs vs. PHI: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I don't have much interest in Rea in a vacuum, but I think he's got a pretty decent chance of being useful over the next few weeks thanks to the schedule. He gets the Pirates this week and then follows that up with an iffy home date against the Giants, followed by a likely two-start week against the Marlins and White Sox starting May 12. I think he might be worth using for at least that stretch. | | Bad pitching performances | | Dylan Cease, Padres vs. TB: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – Nothing looks especially bad under the hood for Cease, despite his 5.76 ERA. His underlying numbers aren't quite where they should be, but they aren't far off, either – a 3.78 xERA especially looks fine, if not dominant. I think this is just life with a pitcher who has always been pretty inconsistent. He might strike out 10 in his next start and I wouldn't be at all surprised. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays @NYY: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 2 K – Gauman was clearly not at the top of his game in this one, and he ultimately earned an early exit after arguing balls and strikes with the umpire. The feel for his secondaries clearly wasn't there, and he had to throw his four-seamer 70% of the time, which isn't an approach that's going to work. Gausman's splitter hasn't really been there for him all season, unfortunately, and I've been waiting for that to catch up to him. We'll see if he can right the ship the next time around. | | Kris Bubic , Royals vs. HOU: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Bubic has been a little underwhelming in two of his past three starts, and it's not like we have a long track record of him being a dominant force to go on. His changeup continues to be a very good pitch, but he is weirdly struggling a bit against lefties, with just a 20.5% strikeout rate against them – his slider and sweeper just aren't on the same level as the changeup, which could explain that issue. I don't have too many concerns moving forward, but I'd like to see a good start the next time around to assuage my concerns. | | Jack Leiter, Rangers @SF: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – We'll give Leiter a pass in his first start back from the IL, but this wasn't impressive at all. He had just four swinging strikes and struggled with his command. That being said, it was mostly just a bad first inning, and Leiter settled in after that, so hopefully his next outing shows more of that upside we saw before the blister. I would sit him in the next start against the Mariners and hope for better days. | | Grant Holmes, Braves @ARI: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – We really haven't seen one start yet where Holmes put it all together. He had the 7.2-inning outing against the Blue Jays a few starts ago, and while that was impressive, it was just four strikeouts to two walks in those 7.2 innings; in his next start, he got the strikeouts (seven), but walked four and was unable to finish the sixth inning. In fairness, Holmes did have to deal with a rain delay in the middle of the first inning in this one, which surely raised the degree of difficulty, and there have been some weird circumstances throughout his season that make it hard to draw too many firm conclusions. But, I'm also just not sure Holmes is all that good. He's talented, though his slider/curveball combo hasn't been nearly as effective so far as a full-time starter as it was out of the bullpen last season. I think he's probably just a guy, at this point. | | Jeffrey Springs, Athletics vs. CHW: 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I think we can probably drop Springs, who really hasn't looked very good since his very first start of the season. He isn't literally a one-pitch pitcher, but nothing here looks particularly good outside of the changeup, and until he shows something else consistently, I think you have to drop him. | | Yusei Kikuchi , Angels @MIN: 2 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K – I just don't understand why Kikuchi can't ever just settle on the versions of himself that actually find success. An inveterate tinkerer, Kikuchi has dropped his arm slot significantly this season after finding a formula that worked in Houston late last season. His pitch mix is still mostly the same as it was last season, but the whiff rate on each of his pitches has fallen since last season, while the quality of contact has gotten worse on all but the four-seamer. Maybe Kikuchi will tinker his way back to success, but I don't think you need to hang on to him in most leagues until he does. | | Andrew Abbott, Reds @COL: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K – I know I've been more skeptical than most of you on Abbott. And I know the Rockies have still been a pretty good matchup, even at Coors Field. But … c'mon, you didn't actually start Abbott at Coors Field, right? | | Mitchell Parker, Nationals vs. NYM: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 0 K – There are always pitchers who put together good stretches without a good explanation for why they are succeeding, and it's often met with a, "Yeah, but just ride the hot hand until it burns out." And you see the downside of that approach here. We saw in the second half last season how bad things can go for Parker when they turn, and his underlying numbers were even less impressive in his hot start to this season, so he felt like an easy fade to me. I hope you avoided this land mine. | | Notable hitting performances | | Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals – Crews didn't have any kind of track record to go on, so I understand why there was such a strong response to his slow start to the season. But after he struck out 10 times in his first four games, Crews has struck out just 14 times in the past 21. And after he had six hits and a homer this weekend, he's now hitting .382 with four homers and two steals over the past nine games. Patience is a virtue for everyone, but especially with young, high-upside hitters. | | Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Diamondbacks – When Suarez is cold, he looks like someone you barely want on your Fantasy team. But you do want him on your Fantasy team because few hitters can carry a lineup like he does when he gets hot. His four-homer game Saturday (the 19th in MLB history) pushed him back into the MLB lead for homers. His hot-and-cold nature is tough for some to handle, but Suarez is the kind of hitter you ride through the cold spells because missing the make-up games will hurt even more. If you can't stomach the ride, now's your chance to try to get off via trade. | | Zachary Neto, SS, Angels – I was pretty certain it was going to be a slow start to the season for Neto, and I suppose in a way, it was – he had just two hits in his first five games. In four games since, he has eight hits, including two homers and three steals, and all of a sudden he has a .961 OPS through his first nine games. I still have my concerns about how sustainable all this is coming off shoulder surgery, but it's hard to ask for more from Neto than we've gotten, especially with the excellent underlying numbers, including a massive 96 mph average exit velocity. | | News and notes | | Cole Ragans was diagnosed with a mild left groin strain on Friday. He wasn't put on the IL, but I'd prefer not to start him this week if I can help it, given how much he struggled in his last start before the injury. There's still a chance they decide to put him on the IL, anyway. | | Some good pitching news: George Kirby will throw live batting practice on Monday. He's missed the start of the season with right shoulder inflammation and is probably still at least three weeks away. | | Luke Keaschall suffered a fractured forearm after getting hit by a pitch on Friday. He's looked awesome and was one of the highest priority adds in recent weeks, so this is a real bummer. He's probably out at least a month, likely longer. | | An MRI on Blake Snell's left shoulder revealed no new damage. He received an injection to help treat the inflammation and doesn't have a timetable to return to action at this point. | | Tyler O'Neill went on the IL with neck soreness. Dylan Carlson was recalled. | | Ketel Marte hit a pair of home runs and played three innings in the field in an extended spring training game Saturday. He's traveling with the Dbacks on their six-game road trip and it sounds like he's targeting a return next weekend. | | The Rays transferred Shane McClanahan to the 60-day IL on Saturday. He's out with an inflamed nerve in his left triceps and doesn't have any kind of timetable as far as I can tell. | | Jordan Westburg was out of the lineup Sunday due to hamstring soreness. He's been struggling, too, which makes for an easy sit this week, with the hope he gets past this issue and gets going soon. | | Adley Rutschman was out of the lineup Sunday due to right hand soreness. He suffered the injury while blocking a ball behind the plate. He's also been slumping, but unless you picked up Agustin Ramirez, you probably don't have an interesting enough alternative to consider sitting Rutschman unless he's placed on the IL. | | Brandon Woodruff tossed five scoreless innings Thursday in his latest rehab start at Triple-A. He's already 86% rostered, and honestly, that might be too high. | | Eury Perez threw a scoreless inning with two strikeouts in his rehab start at High-A on Saturday. It was his first since undergoing TJ surgery. He's 40% rostered on CBS and is worth stashing anywhere you have an IL spot to play with. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | 24/7 Sports News | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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