This was a pretty terrific weekend of pitching performances, which made writing today's newsletter even tougher than a typical Monday.

I usually try to limit myself to writing about 20 standout performances from the weekend as a whole every week, including both good and bad pitching performances, as well as hitters and relievers. But that's harder to do when there were 20 different pitching performances from Friday through Sunday of at least seven strikeouts and two or fewer runs allowed. That was 22.2% of all starts this weekend; entering this weekend, only 17.5% of starts met those qualifiers this season. 

My initial list of just the good standout pitching performances came out to 24 that I wanted to write about. So, with apologies to Tarik Skubal, Shota Imanaga,  Logan Gilbert , and a few others, I had to make some cuts. I wanted to write about even more than I did. And I'm going to have to skip over the hitters entirely today, or else this newsletter would be about 8,000 words long. So, apologies to Tyler O'Neill, Ceddane Rafaela, Alex Verdugo, and the rest. We have to make some sacrifices here. 

Because I could have easily gone to 8,000 words about this weekend's action, and we could have done three hours easily on this morning's Fantasy Baseball Today episode. We did hit on some of the stuff I wasn't able to in today's newsletter there, so make sure you tune in for Frank Stampfl and Scott White's thoughts, too.

Alright, that's enough throat-clearing. Let's get to it. 

We've got a nice balanced schedule on the way in Week 6, with every team playing at least six games and only the Nationals, Yankees,  Marlins,  Cubs, Mets and Orioles  playing seven games. There are obviously some big names on some of those teams, but I don't think you need to be forcing too many Marlins in your lineup just because they've got one extra game (though the Marlins do have pretty good matchups, so there might be room for a sleeper or two).  

The headliner this week is Astros outfield prospect Joey Loperfido, who is set to get the call from Triple-A this week. He was a fringe-ish prospect, more like a low-end top-10 organizational guy coming into the season, but he's seen a huge improvement in his quality-of contact metrics that make him look a lot more interesting:

"Loperfido has hit 13 homers in 25 games at Triple-A, which is impressive even for the Pacific Coast League. And he's doing it while notably hitting the ball much harder than he did a year ago; in his 32 games at Triple-A last season, Loperfido's average exit velocity was just 86.9 mph, while his hardest-hit ball was 107.6 mph. This season? Well, he's already hit three balls harder than his hardest from last season, peaking with a 113.9 mph blast back on April 12 that traveled 440 feet. And it's not just playing up at the high end, as Loperfido's average exit velocity so far is 92.3 mph, up more than 5 mph from last season."

He might strike out too much for the power to play, or he might have a prohibitively poor batting average, or any number of other potential pitfalls. But he probably needs to be added in as many leagues as possible this week, just in case he carries that ridiculous power over. 

I'll also point out that I didn't write about Erick Fedde or Reese Olson in today's newsletter, because I covered them in the waiver-wire piece. In short: Yes, I'm very impressed with both of them, and yes, you should add them if they are available. 

Here's the rest of the top players to consider adding ahead of Week 6:

• C: Ryan Jeffers, Twins (58%)
• 1B:  Nate Lowe, Rangers (70%)
• 2B:  Edouard Julien, Twins (69%)
• 3B:  Luis Rengifo, Angels (42%)
• SS:  Vaughn Grissom,  Red Sox (39%)
• OF: Andy Pages,  Dodgers (51%),  Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (53%), Jesse Winker, Nationals (44%)
• SP:  Erick Fedde,  White Sox (40%), Taj Bradley,Rays (34%),  Reese Olson, Tigers (48%)
• RP:  Hector Neris,  Phillies (38%), Jason Adam, Rays (31%)

For more deep-league targets, plus my thoughts on each of those players and more, head here. 

Best hitter matchups for Week 6:

1. Marlins WAS1, COL3, @OAK3
2. Cubs @NYM4, MIL3
3. Pirates @OAK3, COL3
4.  Athletics PIT3, MIA3
5. Rangers WAS3, @KC3  

Worst hitter matchups for Week 6:

1. Red Sox SF3, @MIN3
2. Angels PHI3, @CLE3
3. Braves @SEA3, @LAD3
4.  Mariners ATL3, @HOU3
5. Astros CLE3, SEA3  

Top sleeper hitters for Week 6:

1. Nate Lowe, 1B, Rangers (65%) WAS3, @KC3
2. Edouard Julien, 2B, Twins (61%) @CHW3, BOS3
3. Jesse Winker, OF, Nationals (45%) @MIA1, @TEX3, TOR3
4. Joc Pederson, OF,  Diamondbacks (23%) LAD3, SD3
5. Will Benson, OF,  Reds (48%) @SD3, BAL3

You can check out Scott's two-start pitcher rankings here, too. He ranks every projected two-start pitcher for the upcoming week, tiering them from must-starts to no-thanks. 

Top sleeper pitches for Week 6

1. Jon Gray, Rangers (68%) vs. WAS, at KC
2. Jack Flaherty, Tigers (78%) vs. STL
3. Reese Olson, Tigers (48%) vs. STL
4. Erick Fedde, White Sox (40%) at STL
5. Edward Cabrera, Marlins (75%) vs. COL

Good pitching

Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays  vs. LAD: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K – Fewer than a strikeout per inning isn't ideal, but the context matters, obviously: He did this against the Dodgers lineup. It's been a frustrating start for Gausman coming back from that spring shoulder injury, but on the whole, it's been more good starts than bad from him, so I'm still mostly operating under the assumption he'll be fine moving forward. But we'd love to see a true ace performance from him at some point. 

George Kirby, Mariners  vs. ARI: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 12 K – Like this one! It's been a bumpy ride for Kirby so far as well, but he does have the strikeout rate up to 28.4%, and while that isn't the highest mark for a six-game stretch, it's very close. The biggest change from last year to this year is his curveball, which has jumped up from a 15.9% whiff rate to a 33% mark, but Kirby is still leaning on the four-seamer as his primary putaway pitch, with 21 of his 38 strikeouts coming via that pitch. I'm not sure how sustainable a 28% strikeout rate with this approach is, but Kirby's control is good enough that he can be an ace if he settles in more around a 25% strikeout rate moving forward. Honorable mention to Logan Gilbert, who has been every bit as good as Kirby so far this season with a fraction of the hype. He had another excellent start Sunday, striking out nine against the Diamondbacks. 

Aaron Nola, Phillies @SD: 8 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Nola has pitched into the eighth inning three starts in a row to lower his ERA for the season down to 3.20 through six total starts. And the best thing here is that the strikeouts have been there, with 26 over those three starts. Nola's velocity is still down about 1 mph from last season, and maybe that will matter at some point, but I don't see much to be worried about here with the way he's pitching right now. 

Jared Jones, Pirates  @SF: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – If you're looking for an explanation for why Jones had his least effective start of the season here, I don't really have one – his velocity was down about 0.5 mph overall, but I'm not sure that's enough to explain why baseball's premier whiff artist had just seven on 83 pitches Sunday. I'm willing to chalk it up to "He just didn't have it," and within that context … three earned runs in 5 innings isn't so bad, is it? 

Chris Sale, Braves  vs. CLE: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – I feel like I haven't written about Chris Sale much this season, mostly because he's pretty much doing exactly what I expected. He had one poor start where he allowed five earned runs, but otherwise has at least six strikeouts in each outing, with a very solid 3.69 ERA and some underlying numbers that suggest even better might be on the way. He's not quite the guy he was at his peak – his 35.7% whiff rate with his slider, while still good,  especially stands out as well shy of peak Sale – but on the whole, I'm buying Sale as a must-start pitcher moving forward. 

Tanner Bibee, Guardians @ATL: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – I mentioned Bibee as someone I wanted to see  reasons to be optimistic from in this start , and he sure delivered. I especially highlighted his struggles to put opposing hitters away, and then he went out and struck out 41% of the Braves he faced. He mostly leaned on his slider for that, picking up 10 of his 16 swinging strikes with it. I don't know if that's the answer for Bibee moving forward, but it was nice to see a much-needed reminder of his ace upside these past two starts. 

Carlos Rodon , Yankees @MIL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – I've been very skeptical about Rodon in this newsletter this season, and Saturday's start went further to quieting my concerns than any other. Because he actually, mostly, looked like the elite version of Rodon we saw in 2021 and 2022, leaning on his fastball and slider for 80% of his pitches; it was 93.3% in 2022, but just 75.4% entering Saturday. That may not sound like a big difference, but the biggest thing is that Rodon mostly traded cutters for sliders, dropping his usage rate for the cutter from 15.1% to 8% while raising his slider from 17.7% to 27%. The loss of his slider has been the biggest change for Rodon, so this was an especially promising performance. For all my concerns about Rodon, I never dropped him as low in my rankings as either Scott White or Frank Stampfl did, and after this outing, I'm glad I kept the faith. It's not proof that he'll be himself again, but it's the first time this season I've had real faith. 

Tanner Houck , Red Sox vs. CHC: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – The, "He looks like a right-handed Chris Sale!" comps used to be purely aesthetic judgements, but they're starting to look more reasonable these days. Houck's fastball will probably never be as good as Sale's – righties throwing in the low-90s need to be a lot funkier than lefties throwing in the mid-90s – but his slider and splitter combo look pretty killer right now, both in terms of whiffs (five each Sunday) and results on contact (sub-.220 expected wOBA with each). Houck is leaning on that splitter more and his fastballs less, but the biggest question here still is how sustainable this improved control is; he had walked 8.9% of opposing hitters in 2022 and 2023, but he's down to 3.2% so far. He had never been below 5.5% in a six-start stretch before, so this is already an outlier. I'm inclined to buy in, at least as an SP3/4. 

Hunter Greene, Reds @TEX: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – On the surface, it has felt like the same old, frustrating, inconsistent Greene as before. But, as I noted Friday , Greene was generating much better results on balls in play, and that continued in this one, as his expected wOBA on contact is down to .292; league-average is .369, while his career mark is .381. The biggest improvement has come from Greene's four-seam fastball, which has given up just one homer so far in six starts; he gave up 12 in 22 starts last season. The problem with buying in here is that, pitcher quality of contact allowed is one of the factors that takes the longest to stabilize, so this could just be noise. One red flag: Per PitcherList.com's data, Greene is  throwing more fastballs in the middle-middle part of the zone than ever before. 

Ranger Suarez , Phillies @SD: 8 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – That's now five straight starts of at least six innings and no more than two earned runs allowed, with by far the highest strikeout rate of his career (27.8%). Suarez hasn't made any drastic changes to his pitch mix, and his velocity is actually down almost 2 mph from last season, so I'm not entirely sure what to make of this. My guess is that he's just executing exceptionally well, in a way that is unlikely to prove sustainable, but that doesn't mean I'm entirely out on Suarez; it just means I don't think he'll pitch like an ace forever. He was a very useful Fantasy pitcher in 2022, and I think he can continue to be one this season, though obviously my hopes are a little higher than a 3.65 ERA and 1.33 WHIP after this start. 

Jordan Hicks, Giants  vs. PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Another guy I wrote about wanting to see more from Friday, Hicks responded in a big way, with his new splitter becoming the star of the show. After throwing it just 18.3% of the time in his first five starts, he used that splitter 42% of the time against the Pirates and racked up 11 whiffs with it. Hicks has been looking for a secondary to go with his worm-burning sinker, and if he can thrive with this Kevin Gausman impersonation, he might have something going here. He's definitely a hold after I was admittedly pretty unimpressed by his fast start prior to this one. 

Brandon Pfaadt , Diamondbacks @SEA: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 11 K – Just when we think we're out … well, Pfaadt has actually been pretty good this season if you can manage to look past the 4.63 ERA. That's inflated by two really bad starts, when he gave up 11 of his 18 runs, but he responded to that combo meal of yuk by allowing just six runs over his next three starts, including two quality. Sunday was his first big strikeout outing, though, and he's still given up five homers in six starts, so let's not start getting the trophy case ready, or anything. But Pfaad did throw his sweeper 40% of the time Sunday, and that's probably going to be key for him finding success, so that's a good sign. 

Kyle Harrison, Giants vs. PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – Okay, I was actually fully ready to give up on Harrison, going so far as to say that, "through the first four weeks of the season, he hasn't given us much reason to think he's still worth rostering." Well, my mistake here was simply that we weren't through four weeks until Sunday. Gosh, Chris.  Harrison came into the start throwing his four-seam fastball nearly 70% of the time, but that dropped to 54% Saturday, and he got six whiffs with his changeup and slurve combined. It was by far the most promising start of Harrison's season from a process perspective, and one that makes me inclined to hang on to him if I hadn't dropped him yet. 

Seth Lugo, Royals  @DET: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – How unexpected was Lugo's nine-strikeout showing? Entering Friday, his strikeout rate was just 11.1%, a mark better than only one qualified pitcher right now; even after this one, he's 71st out of 75 qualifiers in strikeout rate. It was the same kitchen-sink approach Lugo typically leans on, and even his 13 whiffs on 103 pitches didn't stand out, so I'm inclined to chalk this one mostly up to randomness. He's just a streamer, despite a superficially pretty ERA. 

Brady Singer , Royals @DET: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Someone asked me on Twitter this weekend why I didn't have Singer ranked inside my top 125 at starting pitcher, and I'll admit, it was an oversight. But even after updating my rankings to reflect my true feelings about Singer, I find it hard to have much to say about him. He's traded a few sinkers every game for a few four-seamers, and that's generally been a less dangerous pitch for him, so that's probably an okay tradeoff. But he still needs to rely on his slider almost exclusively for whiffs, and while it's a good pitch, it's probably not enough to prop up his entire profile. His xERA right now is 4.34, and that I think that probably says it all. He's just a guy. 

Dane Dunning, Rangers vs. CIN: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – So, here's the problem I run into with this section of the newsletter on a Monday. I don't believe that what Dunning did here was sustainable, but I feel like I'm doing you, the reader, a disservice if I don't address it. This was a pretty tremendous start, with Dunning racking up 18  whiffs on just 69 pitches. That's a massive rate. And his cutter was especially effective, as he upped his usage rate to 28% (from 16%) and got seven whiffs on 13 swings. But the thing is, Dunning's been throwing a cutter forever, and if that was the key to sustainable success, wouldn't we have seen something like this from him more consistently? He had two starts in a three-start stretch with double-digit strikeouts last August, and then had a 5.40 ERA and 21.1% strikeout rate over his final nine starts from that point on. You understand my lack of enthusiasm, yes? Yes. 

Bad Pitching

Pablo Lopez, Twins @LAA: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It was another frustrating outing from Lopez, who was cruising until the fifth inning, when he gave up two doubles and two homers in a span of four plate appearances. Lopez was terrific otherwise, but … "Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" Lopez's stuff still looks more or less like it did last season, so I still tend to assume better days are ahead, and I'm treating him like an ace. But it sure would be nice to get a real ace showing from him. 

Zac Gallen , Diamondbacks @SEA: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Gallen left this one with hamstring spasms, which hopefully won't be too big of an issue moving forward. If you have Gallen, it does feel a bit like a ticking time bomb, with his velocity still down about 1 mph from last season, but on the whole, it's been hard to tell in the numbers – his strikeout, walk, and groundball rates are nearly identical to last season, and even the quality of contact remains about as middling as it was a year ago. There are certainly red flags here – most notably, a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and 52.3% hard-hit rate allowed – which makes me tend to lean toward the "sell-high" side of things. Though, coming off his first two bad starts of the season, and with that little injury tag next to his name, now probably isn't the time to actually try to sell him.  

Joe Musgrove, Padres vs. PHI: 3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I dunno. Musgrove's velocity is down a little bit from last year still, but it's within 1 mph, so it doesn't seem like it should be that big of a deal. But he's just getting crushed right now, with an expected wOBA over .400 against his four-seamer, curveball, and cutter; for some context, Yandy Diaz was seventh in the majors in wOBA at .402 last season. His command doesn't seem to be too big of a problem, and Musgrove's movement profiles more or less look like they did last season, so I'm inclined to hit him with that "buy low" tag and move on, but … man, I wish I could say I was more confident in it. Don't drop him, at least. 

Michael King , Padres vs. PHI: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Now, here's a guy I might just be ready and willing to drop. He's at least getting strikeouts lately, with 25 over his past four starts, though he has also had multiple walks in each of that stretch, more importantly eight homers allowed, including three Sunday. It's been a bunch of pretty tough matchups, if you're looking for reasons to be optimistic, but … I'm not, really. I'll hang on to King in leagues where his RP eligibility gives him a little boost in value, but other than that, I think he's just a streamer and matchups play. The problem is, his next four matchups look like @ARI, vs. LAD, @ATL, and vs. NYY. So … see you in in June? 

Edward Cabrera, Marlins vs. WAS: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – I know we've gone down this disappointing road with Cabrera before, but … I'm still kind of buying him. He made one really bad pitch in this one, leading to a grand slam, but he's not going to have every baserunner who reaches come around and score against him too often. The control has been significantly better early on and he's getting the strikeouts, so I'll keep believing in Cabrera, especially with either the Rockies in Miami or the A's in Oakland as his next start. How's this for a hot take: I would drop King before I dropped Cabrera. 

Jesus Luzardo was scratched for Friday's start and placed on the IL with left elbow tightness, retroactive to April 23. Luzardo downplayed the injury as best as he could, but given his history – Tommy John surgery in high school and a 2022 forearm strain that cost him two and a half months most notably – I'm preparing for the worst, hoping for the best, and just stashing Luzardo for now. 

Zac Gallen was pulled from his start Friday due to right hamstring spasms. It sounds like he'll make his next start … against the Dodgers. I wouldn't call him an outright "sit" for that one, but I could see it. 

Tyler Glasnow was removed from his start Saturday due to cramping in his right hand. I'm assuming he'll make his next start … against the Braves. That's not ideal either, though I'm still planning to start Glasnow at this point. 

Kyle Bradish is returning to the Orioles' rotation this week. If he stays on schedule, he could return Wednesday at home against the Yankees. I wouldn't start him the first time out, but I'm very interested to see what he looks like. 

Jackson Holliday was optioned back to Triple-A on Friday. He was 2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts, a 50% K rate. He is 89% rostered, and if you are the type of person who tends to stash prospects, Holliday should probably remain on your bench for the time being. There's a decent chance this ends up like Jordan Walker a year ago, where he returns relatively soon and ends up being very useful for Fantasy. 

Paul Sewald will have his rehab slowed a bit due to soreness in his injured oblique, though it sounds like there is too much concern here. It just may mean his return doesn't come this week, as we had hoped. Kevin Ginkel will remain the closer here until Sewald is back. 

Josh Lowe was expected to be activated Saturday … and then he wasn't. He's now dealing with hamstring tightness and will have an MRI done on Monday. Nightmare start to 2024, but let's cross our fingers and hope this doesn't turn into a lingering injury. 

Justin Steele will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday, and while I'd been assuming he would need at least a few rehab starts, apparently the plan (for now) is for Steele to return from his hamstring injury after just one outing in the minors. 

Kodai Senga threw an up-and-down bullpen Thursday and is slated to face hitters Monday. He's still likely at least a month, and possibly more, away from returning from his shoulder injury. 

Craig Kimbrel was removed Sunday due to upper-back tightness. If he has to miss time Yennier Cano would have to be the next man up for the Orioles. 

Luis Robert could be back in mid-May. He's on the IL with a Grade 2 right hip flexor strain, but this timeline seems like a best-case scenario if he can manage it. 

Triston Casas was transferred to the 60-day IL, which means he'll be out until at least June 21st. The Red Sox acquired Garrett Cooper, who should see some time at first base for them. He's certainly worth an add in AL-only leagues. 

Yandy Diaz left Friday after getting hit by a pitch on his hand. X-rays came back negative and he was back in the lineup by Sunday.

Jordan Hicks said he experienced a bit of side tightness during his start Saturday. It doesn't sound like too big of a concern, and Hicks was terrific in his most recent outing, so it's worth starting him if he's available. 

Nick Pivetta is penciled in to make a rehab start Thursday. He threw 50 pitches in a live batting practice on Saturday, so it's possible he could be back next week. 

Vaughn Grissom could be activated on Tuesday. 

Wade Miley was diagnosed with a torn UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery. His season, and possibly career, is over. 

Jonathan Aranda joined Triple-A on Friday to begin a rehab assignment. 

Joey Gallo was placed on the IL with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder

Jordan Wicks was placed on the IL with a strained left forearm