| What Does a Dying Bull Market Look Like? | | By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud | | Tuesday, May 30, 2017 |
| Last week, thousands of readers tuned in to hear Porter Stansberry and me talk about the day the bull market ends.
My take is that this market still has upside – and stocks still have room to run.
Why do I think this? In short, the market isn't "acting" like a market that's at the top yet…
The last truly great boom in U.S. stocks was the dot-com bubble of 1999. I expect this great boom in stocks will end in a similar way.
So how does today's market compare to 1999?
Almost any way you size it up, today's bull market has a long way to go on the upside before it resembles 1999…
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One interesting way to compare them is through the "health" of the markets…
In a strong bull market, more stocks should be going up than going down – right? Sounds basic.
Well, what if the overall market was going up… but more stocks were falling each day than rising?
That's what was happening at the end of 1999.
You can see this in the chart below. The blue "advance/decline" line is a simple indicator… You take the number of stocks that went up in a day, and you subtract the number that went down. If more went up, this line goes up. If more went down, this line goes down. Take look…
In a typical bull market, as the market goes up, the advance/decline line goes up too.
So what happened in 1998-1999 is interesting… The overall stock indexes were going up. However, more stocks were falling than rising.
That was not a healthy market. On the contrary – that's what a dying bull market looks like.
How does this compare to today?
Today's advance/decline line looks nothing like the late 1990s. Take a look…
Today's market is still "healthy."
The number of advancing stocks is still higher than the number of declining stocks each day. Based on this indicator, the market is not looking "weak" yet.
This isn't the only indicator I look at, of course. It's just one of many, showing a similar conclusion. This one isn't foolproof either – it didn't give any advance warning at all in some market downturns.
Again, it's just one indicator… one piece of evidence among many that tells me we still have more upside ahead.
Yes, this is the second-longest bull market in history. No, it doesn't feel like a top – yet.
Invest accordingly.
Good investing,
Steve
P.S. I want to give credit where credit is due… Ben Carlson of Bloomberg.com and Ritholtz Wealth Management wrote a great story on this. You can read it by clicking here.
Editor's note: Last week, thousands of folks tuned in for our live event with Steve, Porter Stansberry, and TradeStops founder Dr. Richard Smith. They revealed how to safely capture the gains of a "Melt Up"... when to sell some of the market's most popular stocks... and how TradeStops' specialized tools can boost your profits – with less risk. If you missed the event, you can view a full replay right here. |
Further Reading:
Steve believes we're entering the final innings of this great bull market – and we could see explosive gains ahead. Catch up on his essays detailing the "Melt Up" in stocks right here: |
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NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK Lockheed Martin (LMT)... "offense" contractor Southwest Airlines (LUV)... airlineUnited Continental (UAL)... airline Citigroup (C)... banks MasterCard (MA)... credit cards Alphabet (GOOGL)... "FANG" stock Best Buy (BBY)... TVs, computers, appliances Electronic Arts (EA)... "addictive" games Domino's Pizza (DPZ)... pizzaWeight Watchers (WTW)... weight-loss programs Humana (HUM)... health insurance UnitedHealth (UNH)... health insurance Quest Diagnostics (DGX)... "one of the world's greatest tailwinds" NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK AutoNation (AN)... America's largest auto retailer Advance Auto Parts (AAP)... auto parts Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)... home goods Ralph Lauren (RL)... clothing Urban Outfitters (URBN)... clothing Barnes & Noble (BKS)... bookstores AMC Entertainment (AMC)... movie theaters |
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| Why Porter's buying this discount retailer... The U.S. bull market is in great shape. And that means it's a good time to invest in great businesses. Today, Porter Stansberry recommends a company that's trouncing its competition... |
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During the live event last Wednesday, Steve revealed an ingenious way to invest in the "Melt Up" stage of this market. In short, he shared a way to squeeze all the gains out of this bull market. And LOCK THEM IN just before it bottoms out. Get the details here. |
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| | I never dreamed that a classic investing disaster could have been instrumental in getting a president elected. It's an astonishing tale. And we can learn from it today... |
| | This Simple Investing Tool Can Help You Beat the Market | | By Richard Smith | | Tuesday, May 23, 2017 |
| | Today, individual investors can access more information than ever, more quickly than ever. Yet they continue to dramatically underperform the markets... |
| | What Happens to Stocks After Panics Like Wednesday's | | By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud | | Monday, May 22, 2017 |
| | I asked our True Wealth Systems computers a simple question... "What has happened to stocks in the past after one-day falls as big as Wednesday's (or bigger)?" |
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