Polling the early weeks of a new administration can be difficult for a whole host of reasons. The short version: Things are moving fast, and voters may take their time processing the changes since the election. But a few things stand out from the early polls on President Donald Trump’s second term. Most show his standing slightly improved from when he first entered office in 2017, and there is broad popular agreement among the public with some of his major proposals. Still, there are real warning signs about the mandate Trump is claiming amid a deeply divided electorate, the surveys show, as well as the risk of losing sight of one of the key issues that got him back to the White House: frustration with rising prices. The polling pros for Trump: Trump’s approval rating right now is in the high 40s and low 50s in different polls, overall a few ticks higher than it was in early 2017. (We saw a similar pattern in the polling released right before and just as Trump took office.) Unsurprisingly, these numbers are powered primarily by overwhelming partisan differences and a deep split among independent voters. But a recent Pew Research Center study shows Republicans more confident with Trump than they were in 2017 on issues like his mental fitness and his ability to act ethically and pick good advisers. Polling broadly shows support for some of Trump’s major priorities. Majorities across multiple polls say they back widespread deportations (59% in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll). And pre-inauguration polling found support for prioritizing domestic problems over international ones and for banning transgender women from playing women’s sports. The polling cons for Trump: But where Trump has pushed his issue agenda toward his party’s right flank, he loses support. His decision to pardon those who were convicted of violent crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol is clearly unpopular, as polls from Pew and The Economist/YouGov show. YouGov polling with both CBS and The Economist found Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada are unpopular, too, and that under one-quarter of those polled want billionaire Elon Musk to have a lot of influence on the Trump administration. And while Trump told “Meet the Press” in December,“I won on the border and I won on groceries,” 66% of Americans said in the CBS News/YouGov poll that the administration isn’t focusing enough on “lowering the prices of goods and services,” despite the economy topping the list of most urgent issues in a recent Quinnipiac University poll. And 51% of Americans in the CBS News/YouGov poll say Trump’s policies will make grocery prices increase, while only 28% think they’ll push prices down.
Bottom line: It’s all a reminder that despite Trump claiming a sweeping mandate after an election that put Republicans in full control of Washington, we’re still living in the same divided country we were before Election Day. When Pew asked Americans whether Trump would make government better or worse, 41% said better, 42% said worse — and a small, decisive middle portion wasn’t sure which way to lean.
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