| |
|
| Friday, May 9, 2025 |
| Happy Friday! Just 17 Friday's from now, we will be reflecting on the Thursday night NFL regular season opener. Maybe Saquon Barkley will slide untouched beneath a would-be tacklers legs. I've never seen that before. There's only so much left for him to do on a football field that would surprise me. That would do it! Yeah, I'd say that would do the trick! |
| Barkley is just one of the many NFL players who will work with a new offensive coordinator in 2025. Kevin Patullo will call plays for the Eagles. As I write this intro, I know nothing about Kevin Patullo. We gonna learn today! |
| |
| Who's new around the NFL in 2025? |
| Below is a helpful graphic that I pulled from this article on thehuddle.com. The coaches that have a zero next to their name and are highlighted are new hires. |
| |
| |
| Some new and some old! Pete Carroll is back to bless us with more of his never-ending energy supply. The universe has reciprocated his boundless joy by giving Carroll an opportunity to go to work with Ashton Jeanty every day! |
| The 2025 season is shaping up to be a very entertaining one! |
| |
| |
| Here's who we're going to focus on in today's newsletter: |
| Ben Johnson and the Chicago BearsLiam Coen and the Jacksonville JaguarsKlint Kubiak and the Seattle SeahawksPete Carroll, Chip Kelly, and the Las Vegas RaidersMike Vrabel, Josh McDaniels, and the New England PatriotsTommy Rees and the Cleveland BrownsBrian Schottenheimer and the Dallas Cowboys Kellen Moore and the New Orleans SaintsKevin Patullo and the Philadelphia EaglesJohn Morton and the Detroit LionsTanner Engstrand and the New York JetsJohn Grizzard and the Tampa Bay BuccaneersNick Caley and the Houston Texans |
| Okay, that's actually a ton. That's too much for one newsletter. I keep pushing these topics too far to the point that one email can't even properly display them and the reader has to expand into a separate window. That's obnoxious. It forces the reader to view the newsletter without dark mode background enabled. Not okay. |
| I'm going to cover a reasonable amount of the new coaching hires today and get to the rest on Monday. I hope that you enjoy your weekend and it's beautiful wherever this is reaching you. It's going to be sunny and in the 70's in Kansas City this weekend! A great time to be alive, and as always, a great time to talk some ball! |
| Ben Johnson to save Da Bears? |
| |
| Dan Campbell's first year as head coach of the Detroit Lions was 2021. The Lions won three games that year. The following season, Johnson's first with the team, Detroit won nine games! |
| Detroit Lions yearly ranks during the Dan Campbell era: |
| Passing Success Rate |
2021 -- 16th
2022 -- 6th
2023 -- 3rd
2024 -- 1st |
| Rushing Success Rate |
2021 -- 26th
2022 -- 17th
2023 -- 8th
2024 -- 3rd |
| Offensive Plays |
2021 -- 19th
2022 -- 12th
2023 -- 2nd
2024 -- 1st |
| Key changes that I noticed from 2021 (no Ben Johnson) to 2022: |
| 1. D'Andre Swift's snap rate dropped from 69% in healthy games in 2021 to 43% in 2022. Jamaal Williams was on the roster both seasons. He played more in a near-even backfield split with Johnson calling the shots in 2022, and that was the season that Williams scored 17 touchdowns. |
| 2. Jared Goff got the ball out quickly more often. His average time to throw didn't meaningfully change -- it rose, in fact -- as the Lions took more deep shots in 2022 than in 2021. But the percentage of Goff's attempts that took 2.5 seconds or fewer increased from 38% in 2021 to 43% in 2022. |
| 3. The Lions ran the ball more. I noticed a rather drastic increase in run rate across the board -- on first down, in the red zone, etc -- my initial thought was that this was a result of playing with more leads. The 2021 team only won three games, after all. And the 2023-24 teams had David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, so of course they ran the ball more. But the 2021-2022 teams had the same backfields. And even on plays where the score was within six points, Detroit ran the ball at a notably higher rate in 2022 than in 2021. I'd expect the 2025 Chicago Bears offense to center around the passing pieces, but I'm at least intrigued by the idea of cheap Fantasy points that might come from the backfield. |
| 4. There was not a clear change in personnel usage, at least not one that stuck. Johnson's offenses were agile and adaptive, in terms of the number of WR/TE/RB that took the field, depending on the players on the roster. |
| 5. More play action. More motion. |
| |
| YKB, Ben Johnson. |
| During the Ben Johnson era, Amon-Ra St. Brown had the NFL's sixth-most PPR points scored as a pre-snap motion man. I was curious which players were benefiting the most from Johnson's use of motion and found that, basically, the best players benefited. Before Sam LaPorta was drafted, the tight ends were minimally used in pre-snap motion, but then LaPorta ranked second on the team in motion routes in 2023 and 2024. |
| The other notable takeaway from Detroit's pre-snap motion data is that the result was often short-area targets. Even Jameson Williams had just a 5.8-yard average depth of target when thrown to as the pre-snap motion man. The team average was 4.9 during the Johnson era. That's typical, but is not the case for every team. The Rams often use motion to spring open free releases for downfield shots, for example. |
| Okay, let's reel it in here -- I've laid out a bunch of information, but what does it mean for Fantasy? Here are my best guesses: |
| 1. We'll see a drastic increase in total offensive play volume, which provides a boost to everyone. Caleb Williams is simplest way to gain exposure to this boost. |
| 2. The backfield may be an untapped source of value. We may see a near-even backfield split, in which case, I want to bet on the cheaper player. Roschon Johnson seems like a prime candidate to return value at this moment in time. |
| 3. I can't help but imagine the two players that Ben Johnson handpicked as the most-likely to benefit from the pre-snap motion and short-area catch-and-run opportunities created in this offense. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland offer huge upside. |
| |
| Horizontally-breaking routes are a low-key cheat code for Fantasy football. The difference in Fantasy points per route run and targets per route run compared to vertical-breaking routes is staggering. This is why I've spent so much time focusing on Johnson's influence. Someone is about to play an extremely Fantasy-friendly role in the Chicago offense. |
| Liam Coen and Duval |
| |
| The topic of horizontally-breaking routes provides a seamless segue to Liam Coen. |
| |
| Chris Godwin (51%) had the highest H-Break route rate in the NFL (minimum 100 routes run). Jalen McMillan (46%) wasn't far behind. Mike Evans even had a 40% rate. This presents an exciting potential change for Brian Thomas Jr., who mostly worked on the vertical plane as a rookie. |
| |
| Another clear change for this offense comes in the form of Coen's screen-designing. Only the Dolphins scored more Fantasy points on screens than the Bucs in 2024. Jacksonville ranked 22nd. |
| Rachaad White ranked third with 29 total screen targets, and Bucky Irving (25) was also top-10. And, of course, Chris Godwin was crushing on screens (2.7 PPR points per game on screens ranked top-10) before his injury. BTJ was good in the screen game (1.9 PPR points per game), and Travis Hunter was excellent as a tackle-breaker in college. We didn't see Bhayshul Tuten used in this way much as a CFB player, but Tuten's stellar avoided tackle numbers are exciting. Maybe Travis Etienne will be unlocked in this offense? I'd bet on him benefitting from the RB screen usage before Tank Bigsby. |
| Let's talk about the run game. This is "the Bucky Irving guy," after all. Tampa Bay used pre-snap motion on run plays extremely effectively under Coen. When using pre-snap motion, Tampa only passed 51% of the time. That was the 7th-lowest rate. Not all pre-snap motion is the same. It's often used to make life easier on receivers who struggle vs. press, it's also used to give a QB an idea of what type of defensive coverage might be being played. Some teams -- like the Rams, which is where Coen was in 2022 -- use motion to aid the run game. No running back had more runs with pre-snap motion than Kyren Williams in 2024. He's been notably more effective on those runs, and the same was true for Bucky Irving as a rookie. Irving averaged 4.8 yards per static rush, compared to 5.8 yards on rushes involving pre-snap motion. |
| Bucky is a stud, 4.8 yards is still really good, but it was clear as I watched every run of his each week that he benefited in a big way from playing in Coen's offensive design. His explosive run rate fell from 11.4% on motion runs to 6.9% on static runs. He was the actual motion man and received a handoff 13 times as a rookie, only De'Von Achane and Josh Jacobs had more of such runs. Irving averaged seven yards per rush on those plays. These designs scream Bhayshul Tuten's name. He could be so dangerous on outside zone designs working from one slot to the other side of the field and building up speed pre-snap. |
| Klint Kubiak and the Seahawks |
| |
| |
| Does anyone remember me losing my mind as Klint Kubiak's Saints set the NFL on fire to begin the 2024 season? The wheels fell off quickly with most of the offense missing time to injury, but wow, that was fun! |
| To recap: |
| New Orleans scored 47 and 44 points in Weeks 1 and 2 (vs. Carolina and Dallas)Alvin Kamara had 198 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground through two gamesKubiak spammed pre-snap motion on 69% of offensive plays and 87% of dropbacks through two weeks |
| He truly came in and used the cheat codes (play action and motion) on almost every play. |
| |
| Kubiak settled down and employed a more traditional offense as the year went on, but of course. He was forced into using his QB2 and QB3 and had to run out inexperienced receivers and offensive linemen. And he wanted to save all of his mind-bending innovations for his new gig in 2025! Or, at least, that's what I like to imagine. |
| I am beyond excited to see what Kubiak unleashes in Seattle. His new QB, Sam Darnold, specialized in a similar offense under Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings ranked eighth in motion and seventh in play action rate on dropbacks in 2024. And only Lamar Jackson had a higher passer rating on play action passes than Darnold. His average time to throw (3.4 seconds) on play action attempts was nearly identical to Derek Carr's (3.3) under Kubiak. Darnold was comfortable taking deep play action dropbacks to attack down the field. He had the most play action throws of 20+ air yards in 2024, and 48% of those targeted the middle of the field. Compare that to a league average of 29%. Darnold has the wherewithal to operate this offense. Who will he find open deep over the middle? |
| It's gotta be Jaxon Smith-Njigba, right? That is often where I saw him putting in work last year. Whether from the slot or perimeter, JSN is a technician who has a good feel for space over the middle and can gash defenses in the intermediate and deep area. Rookies Elijah Arroyo and Tory Horton could make some noise as deep threats, too, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has already proven capable of winning in this way in Kubiak's offense. JSN is the player who I am the most intrigued by in this design, though. |
| JSN ranked ninth in PPR points on throws to the middle of the field. He didn't get many opportunities to work the deep-intermediate middle, but he did crush the chances he got. On four targets to the deep middle, JSN turned in 2-49-1 receiving. On 11 targets of 15+ air yards that were inside the numbers, JSN's catch rate and yards per catch were both well above the league average. He saw 15 of such targets at Ohio State and caught 13 of them! Only CeeDee Lamb, Jameson Williams, and Jaylen Waddle posted a higher yard per target rate on such opportunities among receivers drafted since 2017. My guess is that he's the WR1 in this offense and taps into a new type of upside under Kubiak. |
| The real winner, if he can stay healthy, would appear to be Kenneth Walker. Alvin Kamara was ripping off explosives in this run design early in the season. His explosive rush rate under Kubiak was his highest since 2020. |
| For his career, Walker has averaged 4.4 yards per zone rush, compared to 3.8 yards on non-zone rushes. He's been at his best on outside zone runs, averaging 4.7 yards. In 2024, Kubiak's Saints ranked third with a 46% outside zone run rate. For his career, Zach Charbonnet has just a 3.7 yard average on outside zone runs. On non-zone runs, Charbonnet has averaged 4.4 yards. His collegiate data tells a similar story -- Charbonnet is better as a man/gap runner. He likely will not see many of those opportunities in Kubiak's system. |
| Who is Kevin Patullo? |
| |
| |
| Apologies for hyping this up, the Patullo reveal isn't actually all that exciting. He's worked as the pass game coordinator in Philly for the past four seasons. Before that, he was the pass game specialist for Indy under Frank Reich, a promotion he received after working as the Colts wide receivers coach for two years. He also has past experience as a quarterbacks coach. As far as I can tell, this will be his first opportunity to work as a play-caller. He's worked with a ton of offensive minds and soaked up a lot of information, so it will be interesting to see if he implements anything new to the passing game. |
| I'd be surprised if much of anything changes for the run game after the season that Saquon Barkley just turned in. What I'm most intrigued by is to see if the route designs change or if there's any significant change in pre-snap motion use. Kellen Moore was the play-caller for the Eagles in 2024, and he's adept at freeing up his top weapons for clean looks with pre-snap motion use. In fact, the top-scoring Fantasy producer as a motion man in both 2022 (CeeDee Lamb) and 2023 (Keenan Allen) came from Moore's offense. In 2024, Moore used both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith creatively in motion before the snap. Among players with double-digit pre-snap motion targets, none averaged more Fantasy points per target than AJB. His 11.9-yard aDOT on such targets was more than double the league average. Brown caught 9 of 11 such throws for 210 yards! |
| Fantasy points per target leaders when used in pre-snap motion: |
3.8 -- A.J. Brown
2.9 -- Marvin Mims
2.7 -- Jalen McMillan
2.7 -- Chris Godwin
2.5 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown |
| Will Brown benefit from these designs in the same way in Palluto's offense? And who might be the beneficiary at Moore's next stop? |
| Kellen Moore and the New Orleans Saints |
| |
| It could be Rashid Shaheed, or both, but Chris Olave is who I would guess is the most-likely to benefit from Moore's design. He's deadly working the intermediate-deep area of the field, and that's where Moore loves to attack. This stat comes on a small sample size, so take it for what it's worth -- among players with 50+ pre-snap motion routes (2022-24), only Puka Nacua has a higher yard per motion route run than Olave. |
| Olave has 25 targets as the motion man as a pro, with an aDOT of 11.1 yards. That's higher than Shaheed's (7.7 yards) aDOT as a motion man and is way above the league average. Olave has hauled in 17 of 25 targets as the motion man for 9.2 yards per target. |
| Thanks for reading! Check back on Monday for updates on the Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Cowboys, Jets, Bucs, and Texans! |
| Here are links to the most recent podcast appearances that I was able to make: |
| Players who I am higher than consensus on for 2025 with the FFT crew |
| Dynasty rookie mock draft with the Draft Sharks crew |
| If you want to watch film on the rookie RB class, check this thread out! |
| |
| | | | | LPGA | | Truist Championship | Nelly Korda defends her title with an elite field at the Mizuho Americas Open! Watch live this Sunday at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Rory McIlory shoots for his fifth win at the Truist Championsip this weekend. Watch live this Saturday and Sunday at 3 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+!
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
