What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data

What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data Things looked good for the bond market earlier this morning. While yields were still quite a bit higher than those seen earlier in the week, there was an immediate, positive response to the on-target PCE data. The gains didn't last long with sellers running the table mostly between 10am and 11am ET. While some of the move could be due to traders moving to the sidelines ahead of near-term potential political developments, month/quarter-end positioning likely had a much bigger impact. Bonds ended the week at their weakest levels, but this pull-back doesn't inform next week's trading in the slightest. That honor goes to the active slate of bigger ticket economic data. Econ Data / EventsCore M/M PCE0.1 vs 0.1 f'cast last month revised to 0.3 from 0.2 Core Y/Y PCE2.6 vs 2.6 f'cast Market Movement Recap08:39 AM slightly weaker overnight and slightly stronger after data. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.267 11:08 AM Tanking now. 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.34. MBS down an eighth on the day and a quarter point from rate sheets. 03:04 PM Still near weakest levels. 10yr up 6bps at 4.346 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

June 28, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data What to Make of Week's Weakest Levels After Solid PCE Data Things looked good for the bond market earlier this morning. While yields were still quite a bit higher than those seen earlier in the week, th... (read more) Rob Chrisman Website Compliance, Warehouse, Fee Collection Tools; Investor and Lender News “They” say that as you age, life is like a toilet paper roll: the closer you get to the end, the faster it goes. Dang. But… 2024 almost half over? What the heck? Certainly, it doesn’t seem like all years are equal, that’s for sure. Not all home equit... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.07% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.07% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.51% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.26% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.02% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.52% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/28 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.45% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.86% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/27 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.05 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.15 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.18% -0.03 0.54 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/12 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.55 -0.39 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.55 -0.39 UMBS 6.0 100.24 -0.30 GNMA 5.5 99.13 -0.41 GNMA 6.0 100.37 -0.24 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3838 +0.0969 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.740 +0.030 5 YR Treasury 4.361 +0.055 7 YR Treasury 4.359 +0.074 10 YR Treasury 4.384 +0.097 30 YR Treasury 4.550 +0.124 Pricing as of: 6/28 5:31PM EST Latest Video San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: PCE data shows us that monetary poli... Key inflation gauge matches estimates Inflation is going to fall like a rock, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee Chicago PMI rebounds in June, best read since November Around the Web CNBC Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected Eye on Housing CBO Boosts Deficit Estimate By 27% Eye on Housing Mortgage Rates Declined in June but Remain High CNBC There's a big Fed inflation reading coming Friday; here's what to expect Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 5.5% YoY in May Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.5% in May; Spending increased 0.2% Marketwatch Chicago PMI rebounds in June but remains in contractionary territory for seventh straight month Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: 1.7% to 2.2% Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in May; Up 5.9% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.1% YoY CNBC Fed and European Central Bank could cut interest rates in September, Morgan Stanley strategist says CNBC U.S. oil trades near two-month high, heads for third-straight weekly gain on Israel-Hezbollah war fears CNBC Treasury yields inch higher ahead of PCE inflation data

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