Our latest fundamental analysis and where our forecasts differ from USDA's.
| | Corn
Last week’s price action served as a fresh reminder of bearish power over the corn situation and outlook. Not only did Conab and two Argentine grain exchanges reduce their estimates of Brazilian and Argentine corn production, USDA also trimmed its 2023-24 U.S. carryout forecast by 50 million bu. But corn futures hit two-week lows, due in part to traders expecting a larger cut to ending stocks.
USDA cut 2023-24 ending stocks 50 million bu. from last month to 2.122 billion bushels. USDA made no change on the supply-side of the balance sheet. On the demand-side, USDA increased feed & residual use 25 million bu. (to 5.7 billion bu.), and food, seed & industrial use 25 million bu. (to 6.805 billion bu. with all the increase going to corn-for-ethanol production, which now stands at 5.4 billion bushels). Exports were unchanged from March at 2.100 billion bushels.
Our corn ending stocks forecast is 2.025 billion bu. for 2023-24. We continue to have a more optimistic outlook than USDA for feed use, corn-for-ethanol use and exports. Additional details for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle and hogs are available to subscribers. Start a 1-month trial for just $1.
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