Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter!

I hope you like hearing about Tom Brady, because I have a feeling that's all we're going to hear about for the next three months now that he's out of the playoffs following Tampa Bay's loss to the Cowboys on Monday night.

Will he retire? Will he change teams? Will he quit football and hang out with Gronk full-time? No one seems to have any idea at this point, so expect the Brady speculation to get crazy over the next month or two. 

Before we get started here, I'd like to congratulate the NFC East. Two years ago, you were the worst division in football,  but now, you've got THREE teams heading to the divisional round. This marks the first time an NFL division has sent three teams to the second round since 1997 when the NFC Central did it. It also means the NFC East is the first division to pull this off since the NFL realigned the divisions in 2002. 

Alright, we've got a lot to cover today, so let's get to the rundown. 

As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them.  

If we learned one thing Monday, it's that it might be time for Tom Brady to retire. For the first time in his career, the Buccaneers quarterback looked overmatched and old on a night where his team got beaten down 31-14 by the Cowboys. The win by Dallas was the team's first ROAD playoff win since the 1992 season, which ended with a Super Bowl win. 

After the game, Ryan Wilson, Will Brinson and I spent nearly one hour talking about the Cowboys' blowout win and I have to say: Unlike the Buccaneers, we did not have our worst performance of the season. 

Here are three topics we touched on during the podcast: 

• Dak Prescott has a historical night. One of the biggest questions surrounding the Cowboys heading into the postseason revolved around Dak Prescott and whether he could carry them to the promised land, and it seems the answer might be yes. Prescott played what was easily his best game of the year. After throwing three straight incompletions to start the game, Prescott proceeded to complete 25 of his next 30 for 305 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Prescott also added a rushing TD, which made him the first QB in Cowboys history -- and fourth player in NFL history -- to throw four touchdowns and rush for another one in a playoff game. After leading the NFL in interceptions in 2022, it seemed like Prescott might still be having issues with his surgically repaired thumb, but he finally seemed to put those issues behind him on Monday night. 
• Tom Brady looks old. If this was Brady's last game with the Buccaneers, it's definitely not one that he's going to remember fondly. The Buccaneer offense was non-existent for the better part of three quarters before Brady was able to lead them to two garbage-time touchdowns in the second half. The first half was especially ugly: The Buccaneers didn't get a first down until their third possession, a possession that ended with Brady throwing the first AND ONLY red zone interception he's ever thrown during his three years in Tampa Bay. The pick came on a play from the Cowboys' five-yard line and Dallas would score a TD on the ensuing possession, and after that, it felt like the game was over. Brady ended up throwing 66 passes, which was the second-highest single-game total in NFL postseason history, but in the end, that just wasn't enough for the Bucs.  
• Cowboys kicker has a meltdown. If there's one thing that should definitely be concerning the Cowboys today, it's the mental state of kicker Brett Maher, who suffered one of the worst meltdowns by a kicker in NFL history. Maher made just ONE of FIVE extra points in the game, which made him the first kicker in the 103-year history of the NFL to miss four extra points in a game. Things got so bad that Mike McCarthy decided to go for it on fourth down instead of attempting a 36-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. McCarthy made it sound like the Cowboys plan to stick with Maher for this week's game in San Francisco, which will create a kicking mismatch of sorts. The 49ers have Robbie Gould, who holds the NFL record for most postseason kicks without a miss (25) while the Cowboys will be rolling out a kicker who somehow whiffed on four different extra-point attempts in Tampa. 

 To listen to today's episode -- and to subscribe to the best daily NFL podcast out there -- be sure to click here. You can also WATCH today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.

For just the second time in his career, Tom Brady, who turns 46 in August, is set to be a free agent his offseason. Right now it's hard to predict what he's going to do, but we've decided to do that anyway. Cody Benjamin took a look around the NFL to try to come up with some landing spots that would make the most sense for the seven-time Super Bowl winner. 

Let's take a look at Cody's list. 

Tom Brady landing spots

• 1. Dolphins. "Miami was literally penalized by the NFL last offseason for impermissibly contacting Brady about a potential team-up both in 2019 and 2021. So it's not like both sides haven't already dreamed this up. ... Brady is already in Florida, he'd get at least two shots at his old pals in New England, and he'd have premium weapons out wide. Also, his arrival as a quick fix for a contender wouldn't necessarily erase Tua's prospects of reclaiming the job down the road."
• 2. Raiders.  "Derek Carr has already said goodbye in anticipation of a trade or release, marking the end of a long and gritty but mostly disappointing era of Raiders football. Who better to reset expectations as Josh McDaniels enters Year 2 than the coach's longtime partner in crime from the Patriots? Las Vegas will have money to spend thanks to Carr's eventual split, and Davante Adams is already in tow as a No. 1 target, with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller also due for rebounds. Making another title run wouldn't be a cakewalk in the same division as the Chiefs, but in terms of system familiarity and big-market appeal, the silver and black make sense (and reportedly already plan to be aggressive in pursuit)."
• 3. Titans. "The Titans pursued Brady in 2020 free agency before re-signing Ryan Tannehill, whose pricey contract is now fully expendable after an injury-laced letdown. With general manager Jon Robinson gone and coach Mike Vrabel, Brady's friend and former Patriots teammate, taking command of the ship, this ever-physical AFC South contender would offer the QB a chance to return to New England-like roots, relying on a bruising ground game to win cold-weather games that matter in a winnable division."
• 4. Patriots. "It'd be wild, yes. Bill Belichick is probably more likely to go all out for a spicier upgrade (can you imagine Lamar Jackson here?) as he enters his age-70 season desperate for his first real playoff run post-Brady. But no one should ever rule this out completely. Brady built his legacy here, and mutual respect remains, regardless of popular opinion."

Cody listed seven different teams as a possibility for Brady next season, and you can check out his full list by clicking here. 

It's Tuesday, and that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks. 

Although the Buccaneers choked in the playoffs, I definitely didn't. I went 5-1 with my picks during Super Wild Card Weekend, but I won't brag about that too much, because two of my colleagues went 6-0 (Shout-out to Pete Prisco and Dave Richard). Last week, I took two underdogs to win (Jaguars and Giants) and this week, I'm getting a little crazier: I'm taking THREE underdogs. 

With that in mind, here are my picks for the divisional round. 

• (1) Chiefs 31-24 over (4) Jaguars. If there's one thing I've learned in life, it's that you never pick against Andy Reid when his team is coming off a bye. In his 24-year coaching career, Reid is 28-5 coming off a bye, including playoff games. If you only include the games where Reid has had Patrick Mahomes, then he's actually even better. Mahomes has a career record of 9-1 off the bye and the Chiefs have averaged 30.1 points in those 10 games. LINE: Chiefs (-8.5)
• (6) Giants 23-20 over (1) Eagles.  The Eagles are a huge favorite, but I'm not sure if I can trust them right now due mainly to the fact that I watched them play three straight bad games to end the season. The Eagles struggled with the Giants' backups in Week 18 and I think they're going to have even more problems with New York's starters in this game. LINE: Eagles (-7.5)
• (3) Bengals 27-24 over (2) Bills.  The Bengals are 0-3 this year when Joe Burrow gets sacked five or more times, but 13-1 when he's sacked fewer than five times, so this game feels like it's going to come down to whether the Bengals' patchwork offensive line can protect Burrow. The Bengals QB is 6-0 all time in the month of January and I can't bring myself to pick against perfection. LINE: Bills (-5) 
• (5) Cowboys 34-31 over (2) 49ers.  Only four rookie quarterbacks -- Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez -- have ever made it to a conference title game and I don't think Brock Purdy is going to be the fifth. There's a reason rookie quarterbacks almost never lead their team to the conference title game and it's because they're eventually going to play a bad game. That hasn't happen to Purdy yet, but I think it happens on Sunday. LINE: 49ers (-4) 

That's right, I'm picking three underdogs to win and taking all four underdogs to cover. To get my full take on each game, be sure to check out my divisional round picks by clicking here. 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL during Super Wild Card Weekend to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement: Tom Brady will not be back with the Buccaneers in 2023. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Tampa Bay was blown out by the Cowboys on Monday. Brady probably doesn't want to go out like this and he'll have his options in free agency with better rosters and coaches around him, so an exit from Tampa seems like the most likely scenario."

Statement: Josh Allen's turnovers will cost the Bills. 
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Allen led the NFL in giveaways this season and if he commits three turnovers against a team that's not forced to start its third-string quarterback, the Bills probably lose that game. Allen will have to keep the mistakes to a minimum the rest of the way, or the Bills will be going home earlier than expected."

Statement: Daniel Jones is a franchise quarterback. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Jones was impressive in Minnesota, but he was also facing a Vikings defense that was 31st in yards allowed and 31st against the pass. They allowed 2.07 points per possession, which was 27th in the NFL. This wasn't an elite defense Jones played, facing a 13-win team with a negative point differential. Maybe a win over the Eagles and this topic will be revisited."

There are plenty more overreactions from Super Wild Card Weekend and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

With the NFL regular season now in the books, that means you're going to be hearing a lot more about the NFL Draft over the next three months. To help you get ready for the draft, we've started a new podcast here at CBS Sports, "With the First Pick," that covers the draft in-depth (listen and subscribe here).

If you want to know the needs for each team and who they should take, then you'll definitely want to be listening to this podcast every Monday from now until draft day. 

• The show is co-hosted by Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six" podcast, then you already know Wilson. He's the guy who keeps the podcast afloat with his common sense. If you've followed football at all over the past decade, then you already know Spielman, who was the Vikings GM for 10 years. He also played a big part in constructing the current version of the team. 

For this week's podcast, Spielman and Wilson were joined by CBSSports.com draft gurus Chris Trapasso and Josh Edwards, and the four of them proceeded to hold a mock draft. Here are the top-18 picks from that draft: 

1. Bears (Rick) - Jalen Carter - DL, Georgia
2. Texans (Ryan) - Bryce Young - QB, Alabama
3. Cardinals (Chris) - Will Anderson - EDGE, Alabama
4. Colts (Josh) - Will Levis - QB, Kentucky
5. Seahawks (Rick) - Tyree Wilson - EDGE, Texas Tech
6. Lions (Ryan) - Myles Murphy - DL, Clemson
7. Raiders (Chris) - CJ Stroud - QB, OSU
8. Falcons (Josh) - Peter Skoronski - OT, Northwestern
9. Panthers (Rick) - Anthony Richardson - QB, Florida
10. Eagles (Ryan) - Paris Johnson - OT, OSU
11. Titans (Chris) - Trenton Simpson - LB, Clemson
12. Texans (Josh) - Bryan Bresee - DT, Clemson
13. Jets (Rick) - Broderick Jones OT Georgia
14. Patriots (Ryan) - Quentin Johnston - WR, TCU
15. Packers (Chris) - Brian Branch - DB, Alabama
16. Commanders (Josh) - Joey Porter Jr. - CB, Penn State
17. Steelers (Rick) - Kelee Ringo - CB Georgia
18. Lions (Ryan) - Christian Gonzalez - CB, Oregon

C.J. Stroud just declared for the draft on Monday and he ended up being the third QB off the board in this mock draft, going behind Bryce Young and Will Levis. 

Although I've only got the first 18 picks here, the four guys mocked the entire first round and if you want to know how the rest of the mock draft turned out, then you can listen -- or subscribe to the podcast -- by clicking here. You can also watch the mock draft on YouTube by clicking here. 

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Browns tab Jim Schwartz to serve as DC. The Browns have finally filled their open DC job and they did it by bringing in a coach with some Super Bowl-winning experience: Jim Schwartz. The 56-year-old last served as a DC from 2016 to 2020 with the Eagles, which included their Super Bowl-winning season in 2017. Schwartz was also previously a head coach for the Lions (2009-13). Most recently, he served as a defensive assistant on Mike Vrabel's coaching staff in Tennessee for the past two seasons. 
• Chargers fire their offensive coordinator. After blowing a 27-point lead in the wild-card round, it seemed pretty clear that someone was going to lose their job in Los Angeles and that someone turned out to be offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who has been fired. Lombardi came under fire after the game for his refusal to run the ball during a second half where the Chargers were up 27-7 at one point. Austin Ekeler got just five carries in the game's final two quarters when the Chargers should have been looking to burn some clock. The team is also dumping QB coach Shane Day. 
• Cardinals hire a general manager.  The Titans have been raided over the past 24 hours. Not only did they lose Schwartz, but they also lost Monti Ossenfort, who has been hired as the new general manager of the Cardinals. Ossenfort spent the past three seasons as the director of player personnel for the Titans. Before that, he spent 15 seasons in New England working for a Patriots' front office that helped build a team that won four Super Bowls during his time there. With Ossenfort's hire, one name to watch in the Cardinals' coaching search could be Brian Flores, who spent 12 seasons with Ossenfort in New England. 
• Jonah Williams suffered dislocated kneecap. One of the big names to watch this week will be Jonah Williams. The Bengals left tackle dislocated his kneecap in the wild-card round and might not be able to play on Sunday against the Bills. Zac Taylor said Wiliams is "week-to-week," which seems to be a sign that there's at least a small chance that he could play. 
  
• Saints expecting a mid-to-late first-round pick for Payton. Sean Payton spent some time breaking news about Sean Payton on Monday. During an interview with Colin Cowherd, Payton revealed that the Saints will likely want a mid-to-late first-round pick in return for any trade that involves Payton. This should be a busy week for Payton, who interviewed with the Texans on Monday and is scheduled to hold multiple other interviews this week. 
  
• Jim Harbaugh staying at Michigan .  After flirting with the NFL for several weeks, Jim Harbaugh has decided to stay at Michigan for at least one more year. There's been a lot of speculation that Harbaugh has been looking to get back to the NFL after leading the 49ers to three straight NFC title games during his first stint as a coach, but if he's going to return, that's not going to happen until 2024 at the earliest.  
• Patriots targeting Bill O'Brien for OC.  After a disastrous season on offense with Matt Patricia calling plays, the Patriots will be hiring an offensive coordinator for 2023 and it appears they have their eyes set on Bill O'Brien. According to NBC Sports Boston, Bill Belichick is hoping to hire his former assistant, who has served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama for the past two seasons. 

In other coaching news, the Colts are planning to interview both Wink Martindale (Giants defensive coordinator) and DeMeco Ryans (49ers defensive coordinator) for their open coaching job. We're not going to list every bit of coaching news here, because it would quadruple the length of the newsletter, but if you want the latest updates on every coaching and GM interview being held this offseason, then be  sure to click here so you can follow along in our tracker.