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Wednesday, September 4, 2024
A couple of left-handed starting pitchers who weren't on Fantasy radars a month ago put up two arguably the two best starts of the night Tuesday. Both are still pretty widely available in CBS Fantasy leagues, though if you're looking to add just one of them, I'm going to tell you to go for the one who is 20% rostered over the one who is 68% rostered. Even though the one who is 68% rostered has been a lot better than the other one this season. 
I'm talking about Reid Detmers and David Peterson, if you weren't watching the box scores last night, by the way. Peterson is the one who is more widely rostered right now, and after his 11-strikeout performance against the Red Sox, is now down to a 2.75 ERA for the season and a 1.81 mark since the start of August. Detmers, on the other hand, was a bit less effective than Peterson Tuesday (10 strikeouts in six innings against the Dodgers with one more earned run allowed) and has been significantly worse than Peterson this season, earning a trip back to Triple-A after posting a 6.14 ERA through the beginning of June. 
So, why am I still higher on Detmers? 
Partially, it's just a lack of faith in Peterson, who has never really shown this kind of strikeout upside before. Even during this excellent stretch, he's been enjoying, Peterson has had just one start in his previous six with more strikeouts than innings pitched. His success of late hasn't been a complete fluke – even before Tuesday, he had a very solid 3.46 FIP over those six starts – but I also think we've seen enough of Peterson to know that he probably isn't an ace, or even a solidly above-average major-league pitcher at this point. It's a nice run, but not one I want to bet on lasting forever.
And, to be fair, I certainly don't think anyone should be betting on Detmers, either. We've all been burned by that one before, and for as good as Detmers was Tuesday night, we're talking about a guy who went down to Triple-A and had a 5.54 ERA in 14 starts. Even accounting for the offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, that's pretty brutal.
But, man, Detmers was really good Tuesday night, and it wasn't the first time. In his final three starts at Triple-A, he had 29 strikeouts and three runs allowed over 21 innings of work. And it was more of the same against the Dodgers Tuesday, as he returned to limit them to just two earned runs over his six innings of work with 10 strikeouts to two walks. That he did that while facing the top of the Dodgers lineup three times only makes it even more impressive. 
Detmers did it with 18 swinging strikes, including eight each on his fastball and slider. The slider velocity was up a bit since his first time in the majors, and he told reporters before the game he did rework the pitch to try to get it back to where it was a few years ago when he looked like one of the best young pitchers in baseball. 
He probably isn't that. It would be unfair to expect that. We've been faked out by Detmers plenty throughout his career. But if I'm looking for someone who could be a difference-maker the rest of the way, I'd rather bet on the guy who has shown significant strikeout upside before Tuesday night. 
That's Detmers. You're probably skeptical, and you're right to be. But Detmers has always clearly had the talent, and if there's a chance he's putting it all together, I think the upside is way higher than with Peterson. 
Maybe I'll be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time with this specific pitcher, after all. 
Wednesday's waiver targets
Kyle Manzardo, 1B, Guardians (22%) – For a while there, it felt like Manzardo might be turning into one of those Quad-A types who dominate the minors but just never gets it done in the majors. He hasn't had a big sample size at the MLB level, but the Guardians' hesitance to call him back up this season raised those questions for me. That still may end up being the case, but right now, Manzardo looks every bit like he belongs, going 5 for 10 with two homers in three games since returning from Triple-A, including 3 for 4 with a double Tuesday. Manzardo has started all three games since returning, and if he plays every day down the stretch, he could absolutely have a breakout month and put himself squarely on Fantasy radars for 2025. 
Taylor Ward, OF, Angels (61%) – It's mostly felt like a lost season for Ward, but he is kind of in the midst of salvaging it. He went deep for the third time in four games Tuesday and has hit safe in 13 straight games and 26 of his past 30, with an OPS over .800 in that stretch. It hasn't come with many runs (13) or RBI (15), which is a bummer, but Ward is at least hitting for some power and batting average right now. We've seen Ward be a very useful option for Fantasy in the past, and with his xwOBA up to .353 over the past 100 PA, maybe he can be one yet again down the stretch. 
David Festa, SP, Twins (43%) – The Twins have had a pretty short leash with Festa, which is really the only thing keeping me from getting more excited about him. Since coming back from the minors on July 24, Festa has gone six innings just once in seven tries, which is frustrating because he has a 3.13 ERA with 50 strikeouts in 37.1 innings of work in that span. His big frame makes his mid-90s fastball play up, and both his changeup and slider look like at least solid secondaries, so I think Festa has the makings of a pretty useful Fantasy option. The only concern here might be that it might not fully come to fruition until 2025 if the Twins don't give him a longer leash down the stretch. I hope they do. 
Cade Povich, SP, Orioles (11%) – I don't want to write a young pitcher going for 10 strikeouts off, especially with how excited I got about Reid Detmers doing the same. But, of course, the big difference here is that Detmers did it against the Dodgers, while Povich did it against the White Sox. Povich finally got the chases he's been looking for at the major-league level, but it's fair to ask if pitching against this current White Sox team actually counts as pitching in the majors, at least from a quality of competition standpoint. Still, Povich has shown flashes in the minors, and the thing about pitching for the Orioles is there are plenty of wins available even against the non-White Sox of the world. So, if you're in a deeper league and looking to speculate on some upside (and Detmers and Festa aren't available, at least), you can give Povich a look. 
News and Notes
Corey Seager will have his workload managed over the final month of the season. He was out of the lineup Tuesday and Bruce Bochy added that Seager isn't 100% healthy. It's kind of impossible to say how to play this one until we see how the Rangers actually deploy him, so keep a close eye on his presence in the lineup the rest of the week; if he misses more than one more game this week, you might need to start seriously considering other shortstop options. 
Tyler Glasnow is scheduled to throw a bullpen session later this week. He's still hoping to be back before the end of the season, but that's going to be tough. 
Ozzie Albies is no longer wearing a brace and took fielding practice Tuesday, but has not yet been cleared to hit. He still feels like a long shot to make much of an impact this season.
Justin Steele, who was scratched from his start on Tuesday, has been diagnosed with left elbow inflammation. He'll undergo additional imaging, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him shut down. 
Bo Bichette ran the bases Monday and will do so again Wednesday. If all goes well, he's expected to be ready for a rehab assignment soon. It'd be really nice to see some signs of life from Bichette the rest of the way after almost a totally lost season. 
Alec Bohm likely won't play during the Phillies' current series against the Blue Jays due to inflammation in his left hand.
Christian Walker was reinstated from the IL and in the lineup, batting cleanup. Josh Bell was also in the lineup as the DH, but that was against a LHP. Given how good Joc Pederson has been as their primary DH against RHP, I have a hard time seeing Bell taking PA from him, so unless they're willing to try Pederson in the OF, Bell might be droppable here soon. 
Xavier Edwards was reinstated from the IL and returned to the leadoff spot Tuesday. Connor Norby moved down to second in the lineup.
Vinnie Pasquantino underwent successful surgery for his fractured right thumb. He faces a 6-8 week recovery timeline, so his regular season is over. 
Luis Gil will return Friday with Clarke Schmidt returning on Saturday. Nestor Cortes is expected to pitch in relief behind one of Gil or Schmidt, before being re-inserted into the Yankees' rotation. It's not yet clear whether the Yankees will roll with a six-man rotation the rest of the way, but it wouldn't be a surprise, given Gil's innings concerns. 
Lourdes Gurriel was placed on the IL with a left calf strain.
Austin Wells was out of the lineup Tuesday due to hand soreness after getting hit by a pitch on Monday. X-rays came back negative.
Reds pitching prospect Rhett Lowder will stay in their rotation and is scheduled to start Thursday against the Astros.
Jon Gray was placed on the IL with a foot injury.
Tuesday's standouts 
Paul Skenes, Pirates @CHC: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – On Tuesday night's Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, Frank Stampfl asked me if Skenes should be the No. 1 SP for 2025, and I don't think I can go there. He hasn't been so much better on a per-inning basis than Tarik Skubal or Chris Sale , both of whom will throw 40-50 more innings than Skenes at the MLB level. I don't have many doubts about Skenes' ability – in this start, he decided to throw his changeup a season-high 19 times and got 10 whiffs on 11 swings with it, which is a bonkers number – but I'm not so convinced that he's better than Skubal or Sale that I'm willing to write off the bigger sample sizes. That being said, I can't see myself ranking a healthy Skenes any lower than fourth at this point – him vs. Zack Wheeler is a really interesting one, and I probably lean Wheeler's way in points leagues. 
Carlos Rodon, Yankees @TEX: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – We've spent the whole season hoping each great Rodon start would be the turning point, and I just don't see much reason to keep doing that. He's still obviously capable of brilliance, and this might have actually been his best start of the season. But I don't see much reason to think this time is going to be any different. If he proves me wrong in September, maybe we'll be able to have some interesting discussions about Rodon's upside for 2025, though. 
Tanner Bibee , Guardians @KC: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Bibee's fastball was enough to get the job in this one, accounting for 11 of his 14 swinging strikes. But the problem this season has been the rest of the arsenal, especially the curveball and changeup, which combined for just one whiff on 13 pitches in this outing. Bibee's fastball is a pretty good (though typically not this dominant) pitch, and his slider has actually been a bit better than last season. But his changeup has taken a big step back as a swing-and-miss pitch, and the curveball hasn't taken a step forward to counter it. The whole package looks a bit less impressive than it did last season, though I will note that his overall strikeout rate is still up for the season; the regression has mostly been due to quality of contact losses. Bibee is still young enough to turn it around and become an ace, and hopefully, he spends the offseason working on those third and fourth offerings to take that step.  
Jeffrey Springs, Rays vs. MIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – Springs' value feels pretty scoring system dependent right now. In Roto leagues, he looks like a solid source of ratios, with a 2.22 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his past five starts. The problem is, this was just his first outing this season with more than five innings pitched, and lest you think this was the start of the Rays giving him a little extra rope, he threw just 82 pitches. This means his chances of a quality start and even a win are pretty slim, and that's a huge loss in H2H points leagues. Even in a likely two-start week next week, he's still a pretty low-end option in points leagues, but I'd be starting him in all categories leagues. 
Kutter Crawford, Red Sox @NYM: 6 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Crawford is leaning more on his cutter recently, which makes sense; it's generated both more whiffs and better results on balls in play than both his four-seamer and sweeper, this season. It's worked out well so far for him, though this outing was certainly an outlier in terms of results, as he had just 10 strikeouts in his previous three outings. Crawford has turned his season around after it looked like it was falling apart around the All-Star break, but I still don't view him as anything like a must-start Fantasy option. 
Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays vs. PHI: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – I can't get any sense of who Bassitt is at this point. Which maybe says something about who he is. He spent years confounding expectations, both by excelling as a late-career breakout and by doing so by routinely outrunning his peripherals. Well, now his peripherals are a bit worse for the second year in a row and he isn't outrunning his peripherals – his ERA and xERA are within 0.10 of each other this season. It mostly comes down to worse results on balls in play this season, and wouldn't you know it, he gave up 11 batted balls with an xBA of at least .450 in this one. It's a tough matchup, but this might just be more of who Bassitt is than his nine-strikeout gem the previous time out. 
Andrew Heaney , Rangers vs. NYY:  5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – The problem with Heaney is the same as the problem with Springs, except Heaney isn't coming off major elbow surgery. The Rangers just don't trust him to face the third time through the order very often, and probably for good reason – he has an .869 OPS allowed the third time hitters see him this season, compared to a .536 OPS the first time. He has a limited repertoire and a tendency to give up loud contact, so even in his good starts, Heaney's chances of a quality start are pretty limited. He has a 3.46 ERA in 11 starts since July 1 and just a single quality start in that time. He's useful, but there are clear limits to his utility. 
J.T. Ginn, Athletics vs. SEA: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Ginn's second career start went a lot better than his first, and that's worth keeping an eye on moving forward. But it was also against one of the most exploitable matchups in the game, which allowed his mostly two-pitch approach to thrive. Will that work against a team without a historically high strikeout rate? I'm pretty skeptical, given Ginn's very underwhelming minor-league career. 
Max Meyer, Marlins vs. WAS: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – We're at the point where I'm not sure Meyer is worth using even in NL-only leagues, so I'm just going to ask what we would need to see from him, either the rest of the way or in the offseason to have any interest in him in 2025. Meyer is, after all, still a fairly recent top prospect, so I don't want to give up on him entirely. I see basically nothing to really be optimistic about with Meyer right now, but if I were looking for something, it'd be some signs of life from the changeup in his next few starts. He had just one swinging strike with it in this one, so that doesn't seem likely. In the offseason, I'd like to see reports of Meyer working to improve that changeup, but I'd especially like to see improvement on the fastball. His velocity was mostly back to where it was pre-surgery, but given his pitiful whiff rates and quality of contact with the pitch, that's not enough. I need to see some reports of increased velocity and, ideally, better shape from the pitcher, along with a strong spring, before I'll even give Meyer a second look in 2025. 
 
 
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