White House Watch: What Will Trump Do with Syria?

Mueller Watch—From the Wall Street Journal: "The special counsel investigating alleged links between Trump campaign associates and Russians is looking into longtime adviser Roger Stone's 2016 claim that he had met with WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, according to a person familiar with the matter."

As financial markets continued to sag Monday, the White House trotted out a new spin, with trade adviser Peter Navarro appearing on CNBC to chew investors out for allowing the slump. "Look, the market is reacting in a way which does not comport with the unbelievable strength in President Trump's economy. I mean, everything in this economy is hitting on all cylinders because of President Trump's economic policies," Navarro said. "I'm looking at this market and this economy and thinking, the smart money will buy on the dips here because the economy is as strong as an ox."

Invoking Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Navarro said investors and observers should "relax and look at the chessboard here."

"The president's focus, singular focus, is on economic growth, rising wages, and a strong manufacturing and defense industrial base," he said. "If we hit all the points of that compass, the market will go up."

In response to Monday's news of China implementing new tariffs on American goods, Navarro downplayed the possibility of a trade war, saying, "I don't think this is going to be an action/response, action/response . . . that just leads to escalation spirals." But he warned China against further economic provocations. "Look, they steal our stuff, everybody knows that," Navarro said. "Are we supposed to not defend ourselves, and then when we defend ourselves, are we supposed to take another punch from them? I think the Chinese side needs to think very carefully about how they respond, because the American people are not going to stand for that kind of response."

My colleague David Byler has a good description of President Trump's current polling as it relates to Republican fortunes for this November's midterm elections: it resides in the "Goldilocks zone."

"He's not unpopular enough to guarantee a Democratic takeover in the House, and he's far from popular enough to make a Republican hold certain," says Byler. Here's more:

Other elections analysts have estimated that Democrats need to win the national House vote by about seven points (with a sizeable margin of error) in order to take back the lower chamber (Republicans can hold the House while getting fewer total votes because of a combination of geography and gerrymandering). And for the last three weeks, the polls have been hovering within about a point of that seven-point advantage.

If the president were much less popular (if, say, his approval was at 31 percent) then there would be only a very small chance that Republicans would hold the House, and a two-point bump wouldn't matter much. And if the president were much more popular (say, at a 53 percent approval rating), the GOP's House majority might be safe regardless of whether Trump bumped his approval up another two points.

But the generic ballot is close to seven points. That makes Democrats the favorites to win the House in November, but it's not a guarantee. So it's worth keeping an eye on these relatively small movements. If one of them becomes permanent or comes at an inopportune time for Democrats, it could complicate their math in the House.

President Trump met on Monday with his new National Economic Council director, Larry Kudlow. In a readout released following the meeting, the White House praised Kudlow's "decades of experience in both the private and public sectors, including at the White House under President Reagan" before running down a list of the administration's successes: GDP growth, job creation, and pay raises or bonuses for millions of Americans.

Notably, the readout made no mention of Trump's latest economic push: a slate of tariffs he has implemented over the past few months that have spooked investors and stirred mutterings of trade war with China. Kudlow himself has been an outspoken critic of Trump's tariff policy, publishing an op-ed just last month warning of their unintended economic consequences.

2018 Watch—Elizabeth Esty, the Connecticut Democrat who mishandled a credible sexual harassment claim against her chief of staff, will not run for reelection to the House this fall. "In the terrible situation in my office, I could have and should have done better," said Esty in a Facebook statement. "To the survivor, I want to express my strongest apology for letting you down. In Congress, and workplaces across the country, we need stronger workplace protections and to provide employees with a platform to raise concerns, address problems, and work to reduce and eliminate such occurrences, in the first place."

Esty's district has a two-point advantage for Democrats, making it the most Republican district in the state.