| | | | Thursday, April 4, 2024 | | We spend a lot of time talking about who you should add in both this newsletter and on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, but we probably don't spend enough time talking about who you should drop. | | That's tough, of course, because there are thousands of you out there with thousands of different rosters and leagues, and not all of you have the same players available to drop. But before we recap Wednesday's action, I do want to provide a general overview of how you should view potential drop candidates for the early season. | | We'll start at the top of your draft: You probably shouldn't really even consider dropping any top-100 picks until May at the earliest. That's not always the case, of course – if you don't have IL spots in your league, you might have no choice but to drop Royce Lewis, whose recover from a quad strain might extend multiple months. But, absent injury or something really concerning – like, say, getting sent to Triple-A, as happened to Esteury Ruiz, you're probably hanging on to all of your first, say, 10 picks. | | And you probably shouldn't be thinking about dropping your top-200 picks, either, though obviously the deeper you go, the easier it's going to be to justify. Players picked in the 150-200 range probably have closer to a coin-flip's chance of ending up dropped for one reason or another than you'd think over the course of the long season, but if you liked someone like Daulton Varsho enough to invest a 15th-round pick on him, I wouldn't give up after a week or two. | | | | After that? It's pretty much open season. Your late-round picks should have trended toward upside plays like A.J. Puk, who were inherently volatile picks to begin with. I still think there's a chance Puk figures it out, but with two pretty underwhelming starts under his belt after a loss to the Angels Wednesday, there really isn't anything to point to in his profile right now to justify hanging on to him. I wouldn't drop any player without an intriguing alternative to add, so don't just drop Puk because Ross Stripling had a good start Wednesday. But if Ronel Blanco, Tanner Houck, Luis Gil, Garrett Whitlock, or Jordan Hicks are available in your league? Yeah, you can go ahead and cut Puk for them, or one of the other promising (ideally young) pitchers who has popped up in the early going. | | So there you go: One player you can drop! | | In all seriousness, I hope this helps guide some of your roster decisions over the next week or so. These are just general guidelines, but it's how I'm approaching my teams, and how I think you should approach yours as well. | | Before we get to the rest of today's newsletter, make sure you check out Scott White's Bullpen Report column from Wednesday to help guide some of your add/drops, while my Week 2 Trade Values Chart has recommendations for how to go about valuing Shane Bieber and Garrett Crochet, along with values for over 250 players in H2H and Roto leagues. | | And now, here's what you need to know from Wednesday's action: | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals (61%) – On the whole, Wednesday was not a great day for waiver-wire targets, so I'm just going back to the well again with Garcia, who homered yet again. He's now one homer away from matching last season's total, and while I don't think he's suddenly a threat to hit 30, or anything, he's elevating the ball to the pull side and already hit it plenty hard, so at this point I don't see any reason he shouldn't be universally rostered – just in case this power surge is for real. | | Jeremy Peña, SS, Astros (57%) – Peña is one of those guys who reworked his swing this offseason, but he didn't get much hype for it during the spring because he didn't hit even a single homer in 14 games. Well, now he's got two in his past three games and is hitting .400 in the early going this season with just three strikeouts in 27 trips to the plate. He had 22 homers and 11 steals as a rookie and was universally rostered that season. Maybe he can get back to that level. | | Taylor Ward, OF, Angels (46%) – Last year, Ward was was a top-120 pick in most leagues, and he really wasn't that bad – a 24-homer, 179-R-plus-RBI pace before a HBP cost him the final two months of the season. He's off to a very strong start to 2024, with three homers and a bunch of hard-hit balls, including a 410-foot bomb and two more hits Wednesday. He's still hitting cleanup behind Mike Trout, and probably matters more than you think for Fantasy. | | | | Logan Allen, SP, Guardians (34%) – There have been so many brilliant pitching performances by waiver-wire eligible players already this season, that it's kind of hard to get excited about a merely good one. But Allen was a prospect of some renown when he made his debut last season, and I had him as a sleeper entering the season so this was noteworthy, even if he's no Garrett Crochet. Allen handled a pretty solid Mariners lineup, and is probably under-rostered at 34%, if you missed out on some of the buzzier pitching breakouts from the first week of the season. | | Alex Kirilloff, 1B, Twins (25%) Kirilloff has hit safely in each game so far this season, with Wednesday against the Brewers clearly his best showing, with four hits in four at-bats – plus a walk! He had three hard-hit balls in this one, and he has struck out just twice in his first 20 trips to the plate. Injuries have made it tough on the once top prospect, so I'll take any signs of life here in deeper leagues. | | Miguel Sano, 3B, Angels (2%) – Alright, now here's one for truly deep leagues. Sano lost 58 pounds this offseason in his bid to make the Angels roster out of spring, and he showed enough to at least clear that low bar. He was 1 for 10 with six strikeouts to open the season, but he showed some signs of life Wednesday against the Marlins, going 2 for 3 with a couple of doubles, a couple of walks, and three batted balls of at least 100 mph. Don't say I don't ever do anything for you AL-only players. | | News and Notes | | Turns out Josh Jung's timetable is more like 8-10 weeks after more extensive damage was found during his wrist surgery. That could keep him out until June, though we'll see if the Rangers put him on the 60-day IL or not. Ezequiel Duran started at third base Wednesday against righty Aaron Civale. | | Jeimer Candelario exited with a hyperextended elbow. As of late Wednesday night, I've seen no speculation on a timetable, and I can't really find many examples of position players dealing with this kind of injury, so I won't speculate on how much time he might miss. What I can say is that the Reds really don't have the depth to handle this kind of injury right now, and might be forced into using Santiago Espinal a lot more than they might otherwise prefer. He probably won't do enough to matter for Fantasy. | | Walker Buehler (delayed start to manage innings) will make his second minor-league rehab appearance Saturday at Triple-A. He allowed four runs over 3.1 innings and his velocity was down in his first rehab outing, but I remain pretty optimistic about his return, which should come some time in late April. | | Justin Verlander (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Sunday. He's expected to throw 70-75 pitches. The team is confident Verlander will need just two rehab starts, so he could be back in about two weeks. | | Jameson Taillon (back) will also begin a rehab assignment at Double-A on Sunday. I'd expect at least a couple of weeks before he's activated. | | Brandon Lowe was removed Wednesday with left side tightness. Rays manager Kevin Cash said he's confident Lowe will be back by Saturday, but given his history, I'll hold my breath until he's back. | | Matt Manning is set for a spot start Thursday in their doubleheader against the Mets. He'll be the 27th man for the double-header and head back to Triple-A, but we should be watching this start very closely after his promising spring. | | Brewers reliever Trevor Megill was placed on the 7-day concussion IL. Joel Payamps struggled in a setup role Wednesday, and Abner Uribe's hold on the closer job looks pretty locked in. | | The Dodgers placed Jason Heyward on the IL with lower-back tightness. They claimed Taylor Trammell off, and Chris Taylor started in LF. | | So much for Mets pitching prospects. They signed Julio Teheran, and he is likely to debut Monday in Tylor Megill's absence. | | The Pirates finally faced a right-handed pitcher. Oneil Cruz was moved up to leadoff. He should be there more often than not this season. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles vs. KC: 5.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – "Chris, doesn't this middling outing make you feel a little silly for declaring Burnes is 'back to ace form '?" Absolutely not, dear reader! In fact, it only strengthens my commitment, because nights like this are part of why I was so excited about the trade to Baltimore. Burnes wasn't nearly at his best and still nearly had a quality start, and he avoided a loss as the Orioles rallied late to win the game. He's in a stadium that will cover up some of his flaws and backed by a team that will lift him up when he isn't at his best. And we saw how good he can be when he is at his best in that first start. | | George Kirby, SP, Mariners vs. CLE: 3.2 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 2 K – I've made my Kirby skepticism pretty well known at this point , but this is no time for a victory lap. Kirby probably lived in the heart of the zone a bit too much in this one, and the Guardians' lineup full of contact hitters might be especially well-suited to take advantage of that. Still, the defense behind him wasn't great, and his 20 balls in play had just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity, with only four batted balls over 95 mph. He wasn't great, but I don't think this is a reason to think he'll be a bust. | | Cole Ragans, SP, Royals @BAL: 6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Two starts, two opportunities for Ragans to look like an ace. He had 10 swings and misses on his changeup this time around, after spreading them around with all of his pitches in his first start, which might just be a sign of something we suspected in his brief but brilliant stretch to close out last season: Ragans might just have a whole arsenal full of swing-and-miss pitches he can lean on in any given outing. He's the real deal, folks. | | Carlos Rodon, SP, Yankees @ARI: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Rodon's velocity was actually up, as he averaged 96.1 mph with his fastball in this one. But his slider still looks like it isn't quite where it needs to be, with his velocity up on that pitch even more than his fastball, with less horizontal and vertical movement. Which is to say, it's acting a bit more like a cutter, which is concerning because he also introduced a cutter to his arsenal this spring, and I worry the two pitches are kind of blending into one another. Rodon probably can't be a difference maker without his best slider, and he doesn't have it right now. I'm not trying to buy, at least. | | Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates @WAS: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – The thing about Keller is, I do trust him to tinker his way back to success at some point when things aren't going well. It just might take some time where he has to sit on your bench. I wouldn't drop him. | | Cristian Javier, SP, Astros vs. TOR: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 3 K – The results through two starts have been pretty good, with no earned runs allowed in 11 innings. But we've also only gotten nine strikeouts and six walks from him, and and just 10 swinging strikes on 97 pitches. The new focus on his changeup is interesting, but I'm not sure it's working for him yet. I would think about selling high. | | Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Rangers @TB: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – As long as Eovaldi can stay healthy and keep his velocity up, I think he's going to be very good. He just hasn't been able to do that for a full season in a long time. Keep a close eye on his starts and look to sell once it looks like things are taking a turn for the worse; it happened around June and July the previous two seasons. | | Aaron Civale, SP, Rays vs. TEX: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – That's two good starts in a row for Civale, but I'm not sure how much I buy it. He's changed his curveball movement profile a bit, and it was his best swing-and-miss pitch Wednesday, so that's something to keep an eye on over his next few starts. The Rays obviously have a well-deserved reputation for maximizing pitchers, so I remain intrigued, if not fully bought in. | | Nick Pivetta, SP, Red Sox @OAK: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Facing one of the best matchups in the game, this was a pretty disappointing showing from Pivetta, if we're being honest. 12 whiffs on 90 pitches is pretty good, especially when his sweeper wasn't working as well as it did in his first outing, but Pivetta really needs to be an outlier in terms of strikeouts to be a successful pitcher, given how much he has historically struggled with hard contact. Three Ks in five innings isn't going to get the job done. | | Frankie Montas, RP, Reds @PHI: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – After leaning heavily on his cutter in his debut, Montas looked more like himself Wednesday, throwing his splitter 27% of the time in this one. He got eight whiffs with it, and it may have helped the fastball play up, as his four-seamer got seven whiffs. His velocity is still down more than 2 mph across the board, and I'm skeptical Montas can really succeed at that level, but this was a more promising showing than his debut, I thought. | | Ross Stripling, SP, Athletics vs. BOS: 7 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K – File this one under, "Sometimes bad pitchers have good games, too!" There's a reason I didn't include him in the waiver-wire section. | | Will Smith, RP, Royals: Smith blew the save, allowing two runs on two hits and a couple of walks against the Orioles, and I just have a hard time believing he's going to remain the Royals closer for long. He hasn't really had a good season since 2021, and seems to be in clear decline – his velocity is down about 2.5 mph right now, too. The problem is, there really isn't an obvious next man up here. I'd lean John Schreiber over James McArthurt, but I'm not sure this is a situation where it really makes sense to speculate on outside of deep Roto leagues. | | | | | | | | UEFA Champions League | | Beyond the Arc | Only 8 teams remain in the fight for the UEFA Champions League trophy. Watch as the battle continues next Tuesday with Arsenal taking on Bayern on CBS and all matches streaming on Paramount+.
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