| | | | Tuesday, November 10, 2020 | | Welcome to Week 10! We're closer to the final week of the Fantasy season than the first, which means it's time to start thinking about the playoffs. If you've got a big lead in the standings, it's time to start consolidating your strengths to make sure you've got the best team possible for when the games start to really matter -- go put in a buy-low offer on Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler and see if you can snag them from a desperate player. | | The rest of us, well, every game matters already. You know your roster's strengths and weaknesses by now, so that's where you start. We'll have a trade mailbag in Wednesday's newsletter -- send your questions to me directly at Chris.Towers@CBSInteractive.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to get answers -- but first, let's see what moves you can make on waivers. Jamey Eisenberg's Waiver Wire Priorities column will guide you through all of the adds and drops you need as you get ready for the stretch run. I'll have more on the top targets later in today's newsletter, along with answers to some of your biggest questions heading into Week 10 and a breakdown of Monday night's game between the Jets and Patriots. But first, here's Monday's biggest news you need to know about. | | Christian McCaffrey is day to day with a shoulder injury -- Apparently the injury happened sometime during the final drive of the game Sunday, and though Matt Rhule called him "day to day," initial reports indicated it might be a long shot for McCaffrey to play in Week 10. We'll have a better idea when the Panthers start practicing, but prepare for having to play without McCaffrey once again -- and prepare for the possibility of starting Mike Davis again. David Montgomery and David Johnson are in the concussion protocol -- Both backs left their games Sunday after shots to the head, so this is no surprise. They'll have to go through to protocol to be cleared to play. Thankfully, that process doesn't have a lot of grey area in it -- you're either cleared or you aren't -- so we should have a pretty good idea of their chances of playing in Week 10. If they can't, Ryan Nall and Duke Johnson figure to step into increased workloads. Kendrick Bourne was placed back on the Reserve/COVID-19 list -- This is a confusing situation, because Bourne was believed to have been a false positive in Week 9, and it's not clear whether this was due to a positive test, a contact tracing situation or what. Considering how the NFL treats close contacts -- Brandon Aiyuk had to miss Thursday's game last week after Bourne's positive test -- this is certainly something to watch. Ben Roethlisberger has a knee injury and is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list -- Vance McDonald tested positive for COVID-19, but it's not clear if Roethlisberger's close contact determination was with McDonald or someone else. McDonald's test was taken before Sunday's game, where he played 20 snaps, so it's certainly possible. Roethlisberger has to be on the Reserve list for five days, after which he can rejoin the team if he tests negative, but he'll spend that time rehabbing his knees after injuring both in Week 9. He is expected to be able to play through the knee issue, but it's not 100% certain at this time. | | Here's what else you need to know to kick off Week 10: | | | | Week 10 Waiver Wire Priority List | | | | Before waivers run tonight, check out Jamey Eisenberg's Waiver Wire priorities column, with the best targets for every position. Here are Jamey's top-five targets for Week 10: | | Duke Johnson -- If David Johnson's concussion keeps him out in Week 10, Duke Johnson figures to get a ton of work as the lead back for the Texans. We haven't seen many instances of Duke Johnson being trusted with a No. 1 workload -- just five games in his career with 10-plus carries -- but he's a competent runner and an excellent pass catcher. If he isn't splitting targets against the Browns, he figures to be a No. 2 Fantasy back. My FAB bid: $15 J.D. McKissic -- Alex Smith has thrown the ball 49 times this season, and 18 of them have gone to McKissic. That is skewed some by the fact that McKissic primarily works passing downs for Washington and Smith has come into two games with a deficit, but it's still instructive. Smith played five games with Chris Thompson in 2018, and 20% of the targets went his way in those five. Antonio Gibson could also see an increase in targets with Smith, but you can't ignore McKissic's usage. My FAB bid: $7 Dallas Goedert -- Goedert's return in Week 8 was disappointing when he had just one catch against the Cowboys. However, I like to give players coming back from multi-week absences a one-week grace period, and he had the bye to get back to full strength. Zach Ertz isn't anywhere close to being ready to return, so Goedert should be one of the top targets for Carson Wentz in Week 10 against the Giants and beyond. My FAB bid: $15 if I need a tight end. Austin Hooper -- If I can't get Goedert, Hooper would be a fine consolation prize. The absence of Odell Beckham should make Hooper and Jarvis Landry (91% rostered, so look for him, too) the top targets in the passing game. The Browns don't pass much, but there should still be enough for both to be close to must-start options moving forward. My FAB bid: $10 if I need a tight end. Curtis Samuel -- It's no secret Samuel has plenty of potential, and the Panthers might be figuring out how to best use him. He's lined up in the backfield a few times every week the last few games, and saw a season-high nine targets in Week 9, racking up 105 yards and a touchdown. He's used in many ways as an extension of the running game -- that touchdown was on a pop pass Sunday -- but he's a capable downfield playmaker if given the opportunity. The Panthers want the ball in his hands, so let's see if Week 9 was the start of a new role. My FAB bid: $5 | | Head here to see who else Jamey is targeting for Week 10, and check out Tuesday's episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast for more on the top targets. | | | Week 10's Biggest Questions
| | | | I went to Twitter Monday night to seek out your biggest questions for Week 10, and there was no shortage of responses. Here are my answers to just some of these questions: | | Anthony: James Robinson has a tough playoff schedule and a few tough games leading into it. Trade or ride the wave? | | It's about time for the Fantasy playoff schedule discussions to start, so I figure I should take the opportunity to plant my flag here: I basically don't care about playoff schedules until we get close to the playoffs, and five weeks away isn't close enough. Too much can change in five weeks to start making moves specifically because of playoff schedules. As I write this, I'm watching Joe Flacco pick apart a pretty hapless Patriots defense, if you need an example of why I feel this way. But you also just need to look at the 49ers, Bills or Chargers to see how much things can change in our perceptions of defenses; alternately, the Cowboys are allowing 24.0 points per game over their past three, a far cry from their historically inept 36.3 per game through six games. | | The truth is, for as much as we talk about matchups every week, most Fantasy value still comes from a player's skill set and his situation. Robinson seems to be a pretty talented player, and I don't think his situation is likely to look too much different in Week 14 than it does in Week 10. That's no guarantee -- and his lack of usage in the passing game in Jake Luton's first game is a minor red flag -- but it's the best guess I can give you right now. | | Dave: So, I need help at WR (I have Terry McLaurin, and then pure garbage) would you trade Dalvin Cook for a lesser RB1 and a top WR in a full PPR league? | | We talked about the topic of trading Cook a bit on Monday's episode of FFT -- listen and subscribe here! -- and the topic came up because of a tough playoff schedule, ironically. On the one hand, Cook might just be the best player in Fantasy right now, so trading a weekly sure thing like that is awfully hard to justify. He might just be having one of those seasons. On the other hand, while Cook is good, he's certainly not this good; he won't keep scoring once every 12 carries (he was at 19.2 last season) and he won't keep rushing for 6.0 yards per carry (4.5 last year, 4.6 for his career, pre-2020). You would unquestionably be selling high on Cook, so if you could get something like A.J. Brown or Allen Robinson and Miles Sanders or Ezekiel Eliott (which seems realistic to me), you would have to consider it. | | Jay: It's Patrick Mahomes' bye week. Do I go with Cam Newton next week, or are there any legit streamers? | | There are always streamers at QB unless you play in a deep league, and I don't see how you can trust Newton against this Ravens defense. If you're looking for a streamer, here's how I would prioritize them for Week 10: Jared Goff vs. SEA (81% rostered, if he's available), Tua Tagovailoa vs. LAC (52%), Drew Lock at LVR (35%), Jake Luton at GB, Baker Mayfield vs. HOU (33%). | | Joe: What your honest to goodness gut think that we should do with the Colts backfield rest of season? Such a nice schedule ... What do we do with Jonathan Taylor? | | I think it's fairly simple: Unless Jonathan Taylor is a true lead back in this offense, there probably isn't much upside to be found here. My assumption is that Taylor will end up in that role before long, but it's clear right now the margin for error is extremely slim, so he'll need to get hot quick. I believe the talent is there for him to do that, but there's more than a little blind faith involved there. If the price is low enough, buying low is the way to go on Taylor. If you have him, try to hang on. | | Joel: What is D.J. Moore's value right now? | | If you're trying to trade him, it's very low. Moore has seen a wholesale change in how he is being used in the Panthers offense, and it's led to him being a much less predictable player as a result. When your game is built around deeper passes, you're going to have some stretches where would-be big play is a few inches out of your grasp or you'll run into a defense like the Chiefs in Week 9 looking to take away the big play. As frustrating as it has been at times, Moore has significant upside every week -- and don't forget he just finished off a stretch with 93 yards in three straight games, with three touchdowns in that stretch. Unless Curtis Samuel has just usurped him in the passing game -- and given that Moore led the team with 57 routes run in Week 9, I doubt it -- Moore is going to have better days ahead. Perhaps as soon as Week 9 against a Buccaneers defense that looked lost against the Saints on Sunday? | | Cam: I've got two dilemmas. 1. Should I be looking to trade Adam Thielen? 2. With Travis Kelce on a bye, which TE should I be picking up and plugging in this week? | | I'll answer the questions in reverse: If Dallas Goedert (63% rostered) is available, he's the guy to grab at tight end. If he isn't I would prioritize the following in this order: Austin Hooper (40%), Trey Burton (40%)/Mo Alie-Cox (8%), Jimmy Graham (52%), Jordan Reed (34%). | | As for Thielen, I think you just have to keep things in perspective. He's not a No. 1 Fantasy WR, but you never should have expected him to be -- Stefon Diggs led the Vikings with 94 targets last season, so Thielen was never going to see huge target totals. Thielen relies on hitting on big plays in the play action game, and he hasn't done that in a few weeks, but let's not forget that he had 80 yards and a touchdown in three of the first five games. Both he and Justin Jefferson are in the rather large bucket of boom-or-bust wide receivers with guys like Moore, Darius Slayton, Marquise Brown, Will Fuller, Tee Higgins, Christian Kirk, Mike Williams and a few others. There's a fairly wide range of possible outcomes for each of those players, and some are clearly better than others, but you're starting all of them for the high weekly upside. That's the category Thielen is in now, and he's just at the low point of an ebb. | | Sports and Smack: What the heck do I do with Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. Feels like I can't start either one. May as well trade for Chris Godwin and get it over with. | | It's only been one game, and it was a weird one where the Buccaneers fell behind early and never really got a chance to get into their game plan. Tom Brady and Brown clearly weren't on the same page on at least a few plays, and Brady had to take more deep shots to try to get the Bucs back in it than they probably would've preferred. For a lot of reasons, you shouldn't overreact to this game … | | That being said, this looked a lot like what I was worried it would look like. Not necessarily the overall struggles, but more the overall shape of the offense. Getting Evans, Godwin and Brown to all be viable Fantasy starters in the same offense was always going to be tough, but especially with Brady, who rarely focuses on any one target and is happy to take whatever the best option is based on the defense. There already wasn't enough room for Evans to be a reliable starter even before Brown was added. Now? It seems like it could be a pretty big mess every week. The problem is, you can't really do anything about it: You missed your chance to sell high on Brown before his debut, and you missed the window to sell high on Evans every time Godwin was out. They're likely to be boom-or-bust No. 3 WR moving forward. | | | | MNF Recap: Patriots 30, Jets 27 | | | | If Joe Flacco is playing like it's 2014, that's a bad sign for your defense. Especially if your defense was supposed to be the strength of your team. | Injuries: Damien Harris (chest) -- Harris led the Patriots with 71 yards on 14 carries, but took a big hit on a late run and went to the locker room for evaluation. He was diagnosed with a chest injury and was unable to return to the game. Rex Burkhead led Patriots backs in snaps and had 56 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and added three catches for 11 yards on three targets and would be a low-end Fantasy starter for Week 10 against the Ravens if Harris has to sit.
Winner: Jakobi Meyers -- Meyers followed up his breakout Week 8 performance with an even better Week 9. He caught 12 of the 14 targets thrown his way for 169 yards, and there really wasn't any point when he wasn't Cam Newton's primary target. Meyers made some noise as an undrafted free agent in training camp in 2019, but was mostly a non-factor in the regular season. After Monday, we can't view him that way anymore. Not a bad way to spend your 24th birthday.
Loser: Patriots DST -- This unit hasn't been the same all season, but this has to be a new low point. Facing the worst offense in the league with a backup quarterback, the Patriots offered little resistance. Flacco had the second-highest passer rating for a half in his career in the first half and wasn't sacked or turned over until the very end of the game. The Patriots are no longer a defense you fear on the schedule; they might even be one you target. What you might have missed: Jamison Crowder didn't make much of an impact, and he was obviously limited by a groin injury. But his touchdown was a thing of beauty. Initially ruled an incompletion, the play was quickly overturned as he got both feet in bounds. That throw and catch had the lowest catch probability of any touchdown in 2020 so far, per NFL's Next Gen Stats. Crowder should be back to his usual role in Week 11 (they're on bye next week) and he's still a must-start Fantasy receiver, even with Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims playing better.
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