Don Kaufman here.

Look, let me tell you something about options trading - it's not rocket science, but man, do people make it complicated. 

After watching thousands of traders over the years, I can tell you exactly why most of them crash and burn. And it's not what you think.

First off, everybody wants to be a hero. 

They see Tesla or Nvidia running hot (like we're seeing today with tech leading the charge), and they think they're going to make a fortune buying out-of-the-money calls. 

That's mistake number one, people. 

The market isn't a slot machine.

Here's what actually works:

Understanding Expected Move 📈

Look, let me break this down in a way that'll actually make sense. When I'm looking at expected move - and I do this every single morning before the market opens - I'm essentially looking at what the options market is pricing in for movement.

Here's the thing about expected move that most traders just don't get: It's not some magical crystal ball, but it's probably the closest thing we've got in trading. 

Think about it - you've got millions of dollars of institutional money pricing these options. These aren't rookies throwing darts at a board.

Let me give you a real example from what we're seeing right now in the SPX. 

Today we're trading well outside our expected move - we're talking about a move that's statistically supposed to happen maybe 1 out of 3 times. 

But here's where traders mess up - they see this and think, "Oh, we're outside expected move, time to fade this!" 

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

What you need to understand is this:

Here's how I use it:

The biggest mistake I see traders make? 

They use expected move like it's the Ten Commandments carved in stone. It's not. 

It's more like a weather forecast - usually right, but when it's wrong, it can be REALLY wrong.

And let me tell you something else - expected move changes. 

It's dynamic. 

What was expected yesterday might not be what's expected today. 

Just look at what happened after the Fed announcement - the whole playing field shifted.

Position Sizing 🐷

You know what kills most traders? It's not their strategy - it's their size. They treat every trade like it's 1999 in the banking sector (yeah, I went there). 

You need to trade small enough to be wrong and live to trade another day.

Order Flow Matters  💵

Look, let me tell you something about liquidity that most people just don't want to hear. 

You know what I see every single day?

Traders getting absolutely crushed trading options on some small-cap stock they heard about on social media. 

Meanwhile, the SPX is sitting there with millions in daily volume, basically begging to be traded.

Here's the reality check:

When you're trading illiquid options, you're not really trading the market - you're trading the market maker. 

And guess what? 

They're a lot better at this game than you are.

Let me break this down with some real-world examples:

Here's what happens in illiquid names - and I see this literally every day:

It's like checking into the Hotel California - you can get in, but good luck getting out.

Here's my rule of thumb:

And please, for the love of everything holy, use limit orders. Market orders in illiquid options?

That's like handing your wallet to a stranger and asking them to take what they think is fair.

The Volatility Trap  💰

I see this all day long - traders getting crushed because they don't understand volatility. When the VIX is screaming, everyone wants to be a buyer. When it's low, nobody cares. That's exactly backward, people.

Listen, I'm going to tell you something that might hurt your feelings: 

Most traders fail because they're trading their ego instead of trading the market. 

They want home runs when they should be hitting singles and doubles.

The successful traders?

They're the ones who:

And most importantly - they know when to sit on their hands

Just like today - with the Fed announcement, smart money isn't jumping in with both feet. They're waiting, watching, and planning their next move carefully.

Bottom line: 

This business isn't about being right - it's about being profitable. And that means playing the long game, understanding your mechanics, and leaving your ego at the door.

Remember, folks - the market will be here tomorrow. 

Make sure your trading account is too

After spending years at thinkorswim analyzing BILLIONS in options order flow, I've identified exactly how institutional traders use expected move to:

• Predict potential breakouts 24 hours before they happen

• Spot the highest-probability setups using liquidity signals

• Identify the perfect entry points using a simple 3-minute checklist

• Trade alongside institutional flow (instead of fighting it)

Right now, with markets at critical technical levels, these exact setups are appearing across major indices and liquid names.

Don't wait - Learn the Expected Move Pattern → Watch The Free Training Now

To your success,

Don Kaufman