HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

It’s a self-preservation thing. Israel’s attorney general has recommended that Netanyahu be charged with multiple offenses, including corruption and bribery. If he stays in power, he’ll have an easier time beating that rap — and is likely to cite the public vote as evidence of a mandate despite his legal troubles. He’s also expected to seek immunity in exchange for power for allies he brings into his coalition.

“Best friend” Trump can celebrate. Netanyahu’s expected return to power — with more seats than the 30 Likud held in the outgoing Knesset — will also strengthen the hands of U.S. President Donald Trump in his bid to ratchet up pressure on Iran. Without Bibi, Trump would have lost his biggest global ally in seeking to turn Iran into a pariah state, by undermining its economy and security apparatus. Now they can continue to tag-team toward that goal.

The other side won’t mind either. With Netanyahu’s expected return, the prospects of a two-state solution look dimmer than ever. Bibi has promised to begin annexations of West Bank territories. With hopes of a politically negotiated settlement acceptable to Palestinians dashed, the militant group Hamas could emerge as a major beneficiary. Its argument that peaceful talks lead nowhere with Israel will appear more credible to many young Palestinians.

The challenger. Gantz, a longtime Israeli army officer, formed a new political party just five months ago and managed to catch up to Likud — almost. Commentators agree it’s an impressive achievement for an electoral newcomer, and it signals a hunger for change on the part of a big chunk of the Israeli electorate. In an odd twist, Gantz won a majority in the city where Netanyahu lives, while Bibi looks likely to edge out Gantz in his working-class home base.

Helping hand. While Trump described both Netanyahu and Gantz as “good people,” his announcement Monday designating Iran’s Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization was only the latest move that probably helped burnish Netanyahu's right-wing bona fides and secure the win. Netanyahu openly took credit for Trump's move, thanking his “friend” for responding to his "important request" on the eve on the vote.

WHAT TO READ

The Potential Kingmaker in Israel: An Ultranationalist Who Wants to Legalize Pot, by Dov Lieber in The Wall Street Journal
“Mr. Feiglin’s rise shows how some Israelis are looking to the far ends of the political spectrum for alternative choices in an election where many voters see little difference between the security hawk Mr. Netanyahu and his former army chief of staff Mr. Gantz.”

How Israel’s Resurgent Right Wing Killed Politics, Silenced the Left, and Pushes Autocracy ... or Theocracy, by Hagar Shezaf in Haaretz
“Fear and depoliticization are two sides of the same coin in this round of Israeli elections.”

WHAT TO WATCH