BUTTE, Mont. — Tim Combo arrived at the second-floor union hall of the Western States Carpenters here Wednesday covered in dust and grime from a day spent on the job. Combo, a 27-year union carpenter, feels deeply that the election will directly affect his life — and he has made his choice. “I came up here to vote for Jon Tester, and I am going to vote for Donald Trump, as well,” Combo said at the hall, where Tester was speaking. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to receive it weekdays. Combo represents the best hope for Tester, a Democrat, to win a fourth term in the Senate in deep-red Montana — and with it, the possibility that Democrats will maintain a slim majority in the chamber. But ticket-splitters like him are becoming less common with every passing election in a polarized U.S., giving Republicans a good chance of capturing the majority in the Senate this fall. Poll after poll indicates Tester is running behind Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, though by smaller margins than Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump at the top of the ticket. Tester, who has defied the odds before, said he believes union halls like the one he spoke at Wednesday night represent the deep connection he has with the people of his state. “Look, I’ve got my own brand here in the state, and it’s different than national Democrats,” he said in an interview. “I would have never been elected the first time or any other times if it had been the same as a national Democrat.” But Tester’s campaign is making an aggressive pitch to convince Montana's Trump voters that it’s worth keeping him around because of the specific issues he has worked on to benefit the state. In the Butte union hall, Tester touted his work to make sure billions of dollars for infrastructure projects appropriated in 2022 would create union jobs. The mostly male group packing the hall, many of whom Tester concedes will vote for Trump, cheered loudly. Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges, has promised he could work with Trump and even listed issues on which they agree. “We probably agree on the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there’s a number of things, yes, yeah,” he said. Read more from Ryan and Frank → Silver State dispatch: Staying out west, Nevada is hosting a Senate race that is a must-win for Democrats and could dictate the size of a potential majority for the GOP. Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas that some Republicans worry it may be too late for GOP candidate Sam Brown to close the polling gap with Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, even as the presidential race in the battleground state remains tight.
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