Wild Ride For Rates After Stunning Jobs Report

Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly more weight than others. If put to a vote, the perennial top dog would be The Employment Situation (aka "the jobs report"). Over the years it is responsible for more volume and volatility in rates than any other data. The most recent installment came out this morning and it was a doozy. The headline number of the jobs report is a tally of new job creation reported by employers: nonfarm payrolls (NFP). That's just a fancy name for "jobs." Today's data reported the new jobs added in January, and there were quite a bit more than expected. NFP can be fairly volatile. It's not uncommon to see the number deviate from forecasts by more than 100k a few times a year. Those big deviations usually result in big reactions in rates. Forecasts called for just shy of 200k jobs. Today's actual NFP number came in at a staggering 517k, thus edging out March 2022 to stand as the biggest deviation since August 2021. To some extent, the massive gains may be attributed to a seasonal adjustment process that still struggles to understand new seasonal patterns that emerged after the pandemic. But even if we forego seasonal adjustments, the economy added more than 400k jobs per month on average over the past 12 months and the employment rate has fallen to the lowest level since the 1960s.

February 3, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Wild Ride For Rates After Stunning Jobs Report Interest rates take cues from several places. Regularly scheduled economic data is always a consideration because a stronger economy implies more growth and tighter Fed policy, both of which are bad for rates. Certain reports carry significantly mor... (read more) MBS Commentary Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact Perfect Storm Leaves Rate Range Perfectly Intact Coming into the week, yields were near the top of a narrow range (3.4-3.56 give or take). With both ISM reports, the jobs report, and policy announc... (read more) Rob Chrisman Enterprise Sales; Staffing, Compliance, Tools; Angel Oak Security; Events and Training; Surprise Jobs Number Fun with numbers! 1: the number of Chinese surveillance balloons over Montana. (That we know of.) Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? (You heard it here first!) While we’re on random numbers, Atlanta has almost 25 thousand surveillance ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.19% +0.20% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% +0.20 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.30% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.62% +0.26 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.75% +0.10 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.38% +0.26 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.65% +0.28 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.30% +0.13% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.09% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.14% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/2 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.01 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.04 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.99% +0.07 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/1 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.23 -0.53 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 100.23 -0.53 UMBS 5.5 101.33 -0.42 GNMA 5.0 100.63 -0.41 GNMA 5.5 101.44 -0.23 Pricing as of: 2/3 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.5265 +0.1245 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.291 +0.191 5 YR Treasury 3.661 +0.170 7 YR Treasury 3.599 +0.152 10 YR Treasury 3.527 +0.125 30 YR Treasury 3.616 +0.063 Pricing as of: 2/3 5:31PM EST Latest Video Fed has a couple more rate hikes left in 2023, says former Dallas Fed presi... Wieting: The underlying situation for labor demand is weakening Central banks appear close to 'end of the hiking cycle, says Goldman Sachs'... U.S. bond yields jump on strong jobs report Around the Web CNBC U.S. credit card debt jumps 18.5% and hits a record $930.6 billion CNBC Heres where the jobs are for January 2023 in one chart CNBC Ron Insana says even with the big jobs report, there are signs of disinflation CNBC Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September CNBC Payrolls increased by 517,000 in January, much better than 187,000 expected The Basis Point Whats the best home equity strategy for homeowners and lenders in the 2023 rate & housing market? Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.6% Below Peak Calculated Risk Blog January Employment Preview CNBC Treasury yields mixed as investors await key labor market data CNBC Bank of England chief tempers talk of a pause or pivot in rate hikes Reuters Bank of England Raises Borrowing Costs to 4%, Hints Rates Near Peak CNBC European Central Bank raises rates by 50 basis points, pledges further hike in March CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors digest Fed rate decision

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