| | Hello and welcome to Macro Notes, your go-to source for the latest macroeconomic trends, market-moving news, and key indicators to watch. We cut through the noise to bring you actionable insights in just a few minutes. | If you’re not looking for more emails from us, just click here to unsubscribe! | Today, we’ll look into the impact of Trump tariffs on the overall economy and which sectors appear to be shaken up the most. Keep reading to find out more. |
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| | 🌍 The Big Picture | Commodities | Copper Prices Soar as U.S. Tariff Strategy Spurs Global Supply Shift | | Copper prices moved closer to record highs as U.S. trade policy developments reshaped global commodity flows and sparked a new wave of short-term demand. Futures on the London Metal Exchange and New York's Comex continued their ascent, with U.S. contracts hovering near all-time highs. | Recent signals from the Trump administration indicated that the upcoming reciprocal tariffs may be narrower in scope than initially feared. That clarity helped ease investor concerns about a broader economic slowdown and lifted confidence in industrial metal markets. | The United States has become a central focus of copper shipments, with estimates pointing to between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons expected to land in the country in the coming weeks. Price gaps between U.S. and international markets encourage exporters to reroute cargo to American ports. | The rally aligns with Washington’s strategic initiatives to secure domestic supply chains. Earlier this year, the administration declared copper a critical vulnerability in national security, citing reliance on imports for mined and refined metal. The Department of Commerce investigated the impact of copper imports, marking a turning point in U.S. industrial policy. | Copper’s surge underscores broader economic trends. As a metal used across defense, electronics, and renewable energy, copper prices often act as a proxy for growth expectations. In addition to U.S. policy, China's stimulus push and improving economic indicators have added upward pressure on global demand. | With tariffs looming and geopolitical trade shifts accelerating, copper is becoming a real-time barometer for how economic policy reshapes industrial supply chains. |
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| | Trade Policy | India Considers Sweeping Tariff Cuts to Shield $66B in U.S. Exports | | The United States may secure one of the largest tariff concessions in recent trade history, as India signals willingness to reduce duties on over $23 billion worth of American imports. | The move follows a wave of reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S., set to begin in April, to correct longstanding trade imbalances. In internal estimates, India projected that nearly 87% of its $66 billion in exports to the U.S. could be hit by these tariffs, spurring urgency for relief through negotiation. | American officials, led by Assistant U.S. Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, are now in talks with Indian counterparts to finalize a trade agreement. Holding firm on reciprocal trade action, the Biden administration has increased pressure on nations with high tariff walls, placing India in a difficult position, given its average tariff rate of 12% compared to the U.S. average of just 2.2%. | Negotiators from New Delhi are reportedly open to reducing or eliminating tariffs on more than half of the current U.S. goods subject to import duties. While final decisions remain pending, sectors including high-end agricultural goods, select electronics, and processed food items appear to be under review. | Meanwhile, India has ruled out tariff reductions on politically sensitive goods such as meat, wheat, and dairy products but may allow phased relief in the auto sector. American officials continue to push for broader access, citing the $45.6 billion trade deficit as unsustainable. | The outcome of the ongoing talks may reshape the direction of U.S.- India trade, especially under intensifying global protectionist trends. |
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| | | | Food Supply Chain | U.S. Doubles Egg Imports from Brazil to Combat Soaring Prices | | In a direct move to stabilize grocery costs, the Trump administration has sharply increased U.S. egg imports from Brazil. The decision follows a devastating bird flu outbreak that wiped out millions of egg-laying hens, triggering a domestic supply crunch and pushing prices higher across supermarkets. | Brazil, already one of the world’s top agricultural exporters, has become a key supplier. The shipment surge marks one of the largest U.S. egg import spikes in recent years. Officials confirmed that the latest wave of imports aims to flood the U.S. market with supply and ease pressure on American consumers facing sticker shock at checkout lines. | Egg prices have remained volatile as producers continue battling containment and repopulation efforts. Retailers have scrambled to adjust shelf supply, while food service providers from bakeries to fast-food chains report sourcing challenges due to inconsistent availability. | While this import boost is not a long-term fix, it signals a rapid federal response to grocery inflation. Analysts say it may take months for domestic supply to recover fully, but temporary relief is already trickling down. Import volumes are expected to stay elevated as government agencies monitor the market and look to keep grocery staples within reach for American families. |
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| | 📊 Metrics to Watch | GDP Expectations: The Fed is projecting a 1.8% drop in GDP, a slight improvement over the prior -2.1% forecast. Inflation Rate: Analysts expect next week’s inflation report to remain steady at 2.5%. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence dropped substantially this week, marking its lowest point in years. S&P 500 Earnings Growth: Forecasts point to a 7.7% earnings growth in Q1 2025, or about half of 2024’s fourth-quarter growth rate.
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| | 🚀 Market Movers | 🏛️Real Estate: New home sales jumped in February after a steep 7% January drop, but higher mortgage rates and increased building material prices mean that real estate markets aren’t celebrating yet. 💍 Precious Metals: Gold prices remain near record highs, partly due to increased gold-backed ETF inflows as traders flock to precious metals’ (relative) stability. 💵 Consumer Spending: Banking giant Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF) released a report detailing curbed consumer spending and increased household credit card debt this week. After a surprisingly robust holiday sales season, consumers are pinching pennies again - which could dampen US economic growth prospects and equities markets. 📊 Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed’s Atlanta President Raphael Bostick anticipates just one interest rate cut this year instead of the previously-anticipated two. He generally sees increased inflation bumpiness preventing the central bank from hitting its 2% target, maintaining the need for elevated rates.
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| | | | ⚡ Market Impacts | 📈 Equities: First-quarter earnings are on the horizon, and corporate analysts caution that a trade war could impact US-based manufacturers relying on global supply chains like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Ford (NYSE:F), and even Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). 💵 Bonds: 10-Year Treasury Note yields spiked this week as fixed-income traders dropped bond pricing. President Trump said he “may give a lot of countries breaks” in trade relations in the coming months, reducing fear across bond markets. 💱 Currencies: Volatility is falling across global currency markets, particularly among “safe haven” pairings like the Dollar/Yen and Euro/Swiss Franc. The volatility drop comes, in part, from Trump’s (somewhat) softening tariff stance. 🌽 Commodities: Trump’s “secondary tariff” threats, a new tool in his economic arsenal, could disrupt global commodity trade as he threatens nations buying oil and gas from Venezuela with a 25% US trade tax.
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| | 🗓️ Key Indicators to Watch | 📅 Initial Jobless Claims – March 27th: Week-over-week, new jobless claims are expected to rise slightly. 📅 Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) GDP Growth – March 27th: Most expect QoQ GDP growth to remain steady at 2.3% between 2024’s Q4 and 2025’s Q1 as the Trump administration begins rolling out planned trade policies. 📅 PCE Index – March 28th: February’s inflation report comes in at the end of the week, with most expecting a 2.5% year-over-year increase.
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| | 🧩 Everything Else | Corporate Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) are calling for a recession, with a CNBC survey claiming most polled CFOs are “generally pessimistic” about US economic prospects and stock market forecasts. Today is Equal Pay Day, a reminder that corporate America still has a promotion and pay gap between men and women, even amid long-term increases in women’s education levels and senior leadership representation. Economists say blowback from Trump’s proposed tariffs could lead to stagflation, but not nearly as bad as we saw in the 1970s. Debt ceiling concerns are back on the men, with some claiming the US could default on its $36 trillion debt by July if Congress doesn’t act quickly.
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| | That’s it for today’s edition—thanks for reading! Reply to this email with any feedback or let me know which macro trends or markets you’d like me to cover next. | Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Macro Notes |
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