Will USDA Cut Corn Yield in July WASDE Next Week?

Widespread rains finally swept across the Midwest this past week, but they didn’t put much of a dent in the overall U.S. drought picture. USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. corn-in-drought percentage was actually a little higher on Nov. 1, 2022, when 71% of the crop was considered to be in drought. But, he points out, that was after most of the crop had been harvested. Today, crop conditions are drawing comparisons to 1988, but the drought monitor is showing similarities to 2012 with a few key differences.

Jon Scheve shares his thoughts on future price projections, which range from $4.25 to $7.25 per bushel, based on various national corn yield averages. Right now, it seems the market is trading around a 175 bu. per acre yield, so any further reduction would likely spark a rally. However, a 2-billion-bushel carryout is too much. In the past 10 years when carryout exceeded 2 billion bushels at the end of season, futures fell below $4.

AgDay TV's national reporter Michelle Rook talks daily with industry analysts to break down crop and livestock commodity markets. Tune in when the markets open, at midday and again at close.