| Dear Reader, China won’t be backing down. I’ve had my suspicions for a while... but several things I saw and read recently have convinced me that any trade agreement will have to be taken with not just a grain but an entire bag of salt. I’ll tell you what has shifted my opinion. First, there was the expert panel on China at the sold-out Strategic Investment Conference (SIC 2019) in May. It featured five of the world’s foremost specialists on China: Simon Hunt, who wrote about the Chinese economy 30 years ago, long before other analysts did Felix Zulauf, a veteran investment banker and asset manager of the highest caliber—and one of the brightest macroeconomic minds I’ve ever seen Hayman founder Kyle Bass, who has become an expert in investing in Asia Gavekal’s Louis Gave, whose Hong Kong base allows him to monitor the Chinese markets in real time Panel moderator Leland Miller, CEO of the China Beige Book, a firm that has compiled more data about China’s businesses than anyone When you have a stage full of such heavy hitters, it would be foolish not to listen to what they say. Most of these guys’ outlooks weren’t exactly bright, to say the least... I turned bearish on China’s economic growth in late ‘17, because I saw the restructuring efforts they were undertaking and that squeezed the financial system. And when you squeeze the financial system, your growth declines. —Felix Zulauf You look at the returns of the Chinese stock market, they have been very pedestrian. In fact, for all the volatility you took on, the returns have been very mediocre. —Louis Gave Trump’s team of negotiators are all looking for something that is an agreement with a nation that has never lived up to any agreement that we've had with them. —Kyle Bass And these are just a few of the many strongly worded statements I heard from the panelists. The second thing that convinced me that this is a real crisis were the explosive insider reports I read (by some of the same people who were on the panel and other experts like them). After reading these reports, I have no doubt that it should be one of our highest priorities as investors to prepare for a new “cold war” between the United States and China. No matter how agreeable the Chinese may seem—or how beneficial a trade agreement Washington and Beijing will carve out—I think there’s a good chance that it will all be smoke and mirrors. You don’t have to take my word for it, though. I convinced my team to put a package deal together that will give you all the same materials that I have watched and read myself, so you can form your own opinion... and prepare for what’s coming. We call it the “Trade War Survival Kit.” And I must say, it exceeds my expectations. It’s a scary scenario, I admit—but there will also be ample opportunities to invest. For every bear market, there’s a bull market somewhere. I also told my team to keep the price low so that everyone gets a chance to see this extremely important information. They did a good job on that too. To see all the details on this limited-time offer, click here. I sure hope my friends the China bears are wrong... but I wouldn’t bet on it. Your let’s hope for the best but prepare for the worst analyst, John Mauldin
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