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| Monday, December 16, 2024 |
| 101 days until Opening Day … |
| So, one note before we start: Over the past few weeks, I've been doing this "X days until Opening Day" countdown at the top of this newsletter, and I'm realizing I've been peddling some mild misinformation there. There are 101 days until Opening Day, sure, but it's actually technically 92 days until the first MLB game of the season, between the Dodgers and Cubs in Tokyo. They are playing a two-game series March 18 and 19, and while that isn't likely to change how Fantasy leagues approach things, I did want to acknowledge that technically, Opening Day is slightly sooner than I've been saying. |
| But I'm going to stick with the date (almost) every other team starts their season, which is March 27. Those two games will count for the standings whenever you draft, but they won't change how your Fantasy league should approach the season, so it won't affect how I approach Opening Day, either. |
| With that out of the way, let's get back to your previously scheduled programming, and today, that means cleaning up from another slew of big moves. Free agency took a backseat to the trade market this week, with the biggest signing this weekend probably coming with Yimi Garcia's return to the Blue Jays . That could certainly matter for Fantasy if Garcia works his way into the closer job, but I don't think you'll disagree when I say that pales in comparison to the trades that went down. |
| We'll get to those trades shortly, but before we do, how about a brief roundup of some of the big trade rumors swirling around, since it feels like those might be the next dominos to go down: |
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| Cubs in on Jesus Luzardo – There's been a lot of smoke around this one, with the Cubs looking to deal from a surplus of either outfield or infield prospects. James Triantos and Owen Caissie are names that have come up in reports, and speaking as a Marlins fan: If they could get a bat like Caissie for Luzardo coming off a lost season, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Which suggests the Cubs might be the hold-up on this one. |
| Cubs still looking to move Cody Bellinger – Speaking of the Cubs' outfield surplus, Bellinger remains on the block, with the Yankees consistently linked to him. However, Bellinger is due $27.5 million for 2025, with a player option for $25 million in 2026, and the Yankees are apparently balking at paying the full price for that. Bellinger would be an excellent fit for the Yankees, providing a defensive upgrade in center field (allowing Aaron Judge to slide to right field) while his bat should fit better in Yankee Stadium. Jon Heyman reports the Yankees could move on to Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, or one of the other first basemen on the trade market if the cost for Bellinger is prohibitive. |
| Nolan Arenado open to the Astros? – This one feels too obvious if the Astros don't want to pay the price for Alex Bregman in free agency. They are still open to that reunion, apparently, but Arenado would represent a similar skill set with a shorter contract. Arenado's swing doesn't generate enough consistent power to be a superstar anymore, but Houston's short right field porch could help him maximize what he is able to generate these days. It's probably not enough to get him back to the 30-homer mark, but Arenado still makes a lot of contact and remains an elite defender, so I think there's a decent chance he could revive his career and do a reasonable facsimile of what Alex Bregman has done the past few years. I'm actually pulling for this one. |
| Framber Valdez still on the block? – I kind of assumed it was a "one or the other" situation with Kyle Tucker and Valdez, but the Astros are still apparently "willing to listen" to offers for Valdez, per GM Dana Brown. It doesn't mean they will – and, frankly, they shouldn't – but that they are open to it is interesting. The Astros are in a weird spot – too good to punt on 2025, but apparently not good enough to go all-in. So we're seeing this awkward half-in, half-out approach as they try to bridge the gap between this era and the next one for the franchise. |
| Mariners are open to moving Luis Castillo – Castillo has a no-trade clause, and the Mariners have maintained they will only move him if it makes their big-league roster better for 2025 . The rotation is a strength for the Mariners, and moving an arm for a bat or two always made sense, but I will say this: The Mariners are not a team with an overabundance of rotation options. They've got their very strong starting five, but the dropoff to Emerson Hancock looks like a pretty big one given his struggles in the majors to date. Which is to say, this may not be the fait accompli it seems like. |
| Alright, now let's get to the fallout from the trades that have actually happened. And we'll be back in your inbox later this week with whatever other moves go down, plus a look at way-too-early ADP, identifying the best and worst values among both hitters and pitchers so far: |
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| Trade winners and losers |
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| Kyle Tucker to the Cubs; Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith, Hayden Wesneski to the Astros |
| Kyl Tucker: No value change |
| Tucker is the headline of the deal, but for exactly that reason, it doesn't really matter where he plays. This is probably a mild downgrade in his home park, but unless Tucker suffers an unexpected drop in skill in his age-28 season, I have no real reason to think he won't continue to be one of the handful of best players in Fantasy. I don't necessarily expect him to sustain last year's .289/.408/.585 line no matter where he's playing, his underlying stats were better than ever in 2024, so it wouldn't be shocking. Tucker was in the No. 6 spot in my overall rankings before this trade, and that's where he's staying. |
| Isaac Paredes: The biggest winner |
| The trade to Chicago was always a bad one for Paredes. Paredes is a power hitter with little power – he was in the third percentile in average exit velocity last season – but he has a terrific approach at the plate, spitting on pitches he can't do anything with and focusing on those he can hit in the air to left field. That's a tough thing to pull off consistently at Wrigley Field, which is 355 feet to the left field corner; it's going to be much easier in Houston, where the Crawford Boxes give him a 315-foot target down the line. |
| According to BaseballSavant's expected home runs, Paredes would have just 56 homers playing all of his career games at Wrigley; it would be 79 in Houston the highest of any park in the majors. This is the perfect landing spot for Houston, and makes the Astros one of the few team where he could realistically be worth accepting as the centerpiece in a trade for a superstar like Tucker. You can question how valuable a guy can be when his bat is so tied to his home park, but Paredes should go back to being a four-win player in Houston, and he's got a good chance to get back to challenging for 30 homers. In a lineup where he'll likely be hitting in close proximity to Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, it was enough to move him from around 250 in my overall Roto rankings to around 160, as the No. 13 third baseman. |
| Cam Smith and Hayden Wesneski: The path is a little clearer |
| Smith was the No. 13 pick in last year's draft and is already Scott White's No. 4 third base prospect for Fantasy. But, if you click over to that article, you'll notice a hiccup: The No. 1 3B prospect was also on the Cubs. The Cubs have a long-term hole at third and could open up space at second base easily enough, but it's just true that Smith has a clearer path to playing time in Houston. It probably won't happen in 2025, as he has played just five games above High-A (and only 12 games at that level), but he might just be the kind of bat that blazes through the minors. |
| The Cubs didn't exactly have the deepest rotation in the majors, so it does say something that he struggled to consistently crack the rotation there. A chance of scenery could benefit him, and he should at least have a path to the rotation for the Astros, especially if they move Framber Valdez, as rumored. He could be a SPaRP to target in the later rounds of H2H points leagues if so. |
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| Devin Williams to the Yankees; Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin to the Brewers |
| Devin Williams: Trevor Megill, you are a top-20 closer! |
| We can't just assume the Yankees will win more games than the Brewers in 2025 – after all, they won just one more last season and lost that Juan Soto guy, which has to be worth a few wins. The Brewers' 93 wins felt flukier than the Yankees' 94 a year ago, given the gap in star-level talent across the two rosters, but dig this: The Brewers actually underperformed their run differential last season. So, it's probably a lateral move for Williams, who is arguably the best closer in baseball when healthy. He doesn't move up in the rankings at all, because he is the No. 3 closer in Fantasy for me. |
| Trevor Megill isn't anywhere near as good as Williams, but he proved last season he's good enough for a high-leverage role, filling in for Williams and racking up 21 saves over the course of the season. He's not as secure in that role, so Joel Payamps could still be relevant at some point in 2025, but Megill should open the season as the closer and is worth targeting as a borderline top-15 closer in the middle rounds. |
| Nestor Cortes: Hey, a rotation spot! |
| With the signing of Max Fried, the Yankees suddenly have a very crowded rotation. Even after trading Cortes, there isn't an obvious spot for Clarke Schmidt, who was a big-time breakout for them last season – Marcus Stroman, keep your bags packed. Cortes was probably always going to start somewhere , but at least now we know with certainty where it'll be. I don't think he's likely to ever get back to his sub-3.00 ERA days like in 2021 and 2022 – I do think the league has figured him out to a certain extent, and his high-3.00s ERA in 2024 is probably more of what we should expect. The Brewers have had some success coaxing a bit more out of these mid-rotation types, so if he ends up on the good side of 3.50, I wouldn't really be surprised. But his draftability may ultimately come down to what the early-season schedule looks like. |
| Caleb Durbin: Lost in the crowd |
| Because the Brewers went out and traded for Durbin, I think many people are just assuming he'll be penciled into a starting spot for 2025. And maybe that's the case. But Durbin goes from having very little in-house competition for second base in New York to being one of seemingly a half-dozen very similar players in the Brewers organization. Durbin is a little guy who does a good job pulling the ball in the air, generating 10 homers in 82 games last season. He makes a ton of contact and has a good eye at the plate, which has led to very strong production in the minors. But he's old for a prospect – he turns 25 in February – and joins a team with plenty of similar players – Tyler Black, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick all have pretty similar profiles and minor-league track records, and Durbin certainly isn't the most highly regard of that group. He could be a starter on Opening Day and a good source of steals and batting average, but he also could get lost in the shuffle fairly quickly if he struggles this spring. |
| Jeffrey Springs to the Athletics; Joe Boyle, Jacob Watters, Will Simpson, and a compensatory draft pick |
| This is a surprising one until you realize Springs will make $10.5 million in each of the next two seasons. That's far too much for the Rays to pay anyone who isn't an absolute sure thing, but it's a decent salary for the A's to take on – since they're trying to avoid an MLBPA grievance, reportedly. It's a trade that should probably make us mildly less interested in Springs, both because it's a park downgrade and because the team that knows him best was willing to dump his salary like this. The return wasn't nothing, but it wasn't huge, either – the biggest draw is probably the pick. The players the Rays got back could all be major-leaguers, but the two pitchers look like bullpen arms, and Simpson may not hit enough for his power to play up as a full-time starter. |
| Springs has shown upside, and was solid enough in 33 innings coming back from Tommy John surgery last year that it's a reasonable gamble for the A's. But the fact that his season came to a close early due to soreness in his surgically repaired left elbow is a pretty big warning sign for the 32-year-old. He certainly could matter for Fantasy in the A's rotation, but given the park downgrade and injury risk, he isn't worth much more than a late-round flier at this point. |
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