| | | | Monday, October 24, 2022 | | Week 7 was dominated by injuries, with Breece Hall's knee injury standing out as particularly devastating -- he was an ascending talent, carrying the Jets to a stunning 5-2 record, and might have been playing himself into contention for the No. 1 overall pick next season. Now? Well, we're awaiting the results of further testing, but he might be done for the year -- and might not be ready for Week 1 of next season either. | | We went over all of the injuries you need to know about in last night's newsletter, along with the top early waiver-wire targets for Week 8, but now we're going to take one last, deep look back at Sunday's action. Today's newsletter is all about breaking down every game, finding at least a few Fantasy relevant tidbits from each one. | | As always, if you've got any questions about what we saw Sunday or what to do for Week 8 and beyond, send them my way with the subject line "#AskFFT" to Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com to get help with trades, your lineup, and more. | | And now, he's my Week 7 recap, with my thoughts on every game from Sunday: | | | | Week 7 Recap | | | | Bengals 35-Falcons 17 | | Winner: Joe Burrow . The Bengals finally figured out how to get the deep ball going, as Burrow was 5 for 6 with all three of his passing touchdowns on passes at least 15 yards from the line of scrimmage. For context, Burrow was just 1 for 3 on such attempts last week, when he played quite well otherwise. That's been an issue for the Bengals offense all season, but if they can get the deep ball working consistently with the weapons they have, this offense is terrifying to try to match up with. The key might be that the Bengals have switched to basically a full-time shotgun offense. The Ringer's Ben Solak identified the disconnect between the Bengals' under-center running game and their shotgun pass attack as a potential explanation for their early struggles. Getting the latter going is much more important, and they seem to have figured it out. Loser: Drake London/Kyle Pitts. I'm sorry, but this Falcons offense is not serious. I know they've been one of the bigger surprises of the season, but they were trailing 21-0 with 14:55 left in the second quarter and still somehow managed just 13 passes to 29 rush attempts. Even taking out sacks and scrambles, they had 19 designed passes and 26 runs. Marcus Mariota isn't a great passer, but he shouldn't need to be hidden like this. Pitts and London deserve better than this, but if Arthur Smith is going to call runs on 58% of the time in a game where their non-Mariota options averaged 3.3 yards per carry in a game they trailed basically from the jump, there just isn't any room for them to succeed. It's a shame. One more thing: Ja'Marr Chase continued to play well, catching eight of 11 passes for 130 yards and a pair of scores, but it was notable that he left the game for a few snaps with what looked like a recurrence of the hip injury that kept him out of practice for a spell this week. It ultimately didn't cost him much playing time -- Chase played 61 of 66 snaps -- but it's something to watch moving forward. | | | | Cowboys 24-Lions 6 | Injuries: Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion) -- St. Brown got just one target before leaving the game, and he'll have to get through the concussion protocol to be cleared for Week 7. With Josh Reynolds catching just one pass Sunday, I'm not sure there's anyone I'd be interested in using in this offense if St. Brown isn't able to play. Winner: Ezekiel Elliott. The matchup against the Lions is one of the best in the league, and the return of Dak Prescott was expected to elevate the offense. It did just that, and Elliott found the end zone twice. He scored 12 times last season but had just two touchdowns in the first six games. Elliott did leave this game briefly with a knee injury, which will be worth watching, but he's probably going to be a solid RB2 with Prescott back.
Loser: Jared Goff. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Goff is very dependent on having good weapons around him, but it's worth acknowledging that reality again after it looks like he might be emerging as a viable starting option early in the season. Maybe when St. Brown and D'Andre Swift are healthy, Goff can go back to that, but it's impossible to trust him if he doesn't have those two at full speed. Especially not against a matchup like Dallas. One more thing: The Cowboys won pretty easily, but they had just 10 points entering the fourth quarter, which was a bit disappointing given the matchup. They had some near-misses, though. Tony Pollard got three straight carries from inside the 11-yard line on one first half drive that ended with a field goal; Noah Brown fumbled when he got upended inside of the 5-yard line on another drive; and Dalton Schultz drew a defensive pass interference in the end zone that turned into a 1-yard Elliott touchdown. Better days are ahead for Prescott, who had 207 yards and a touchdown on 25 pass attempts. | | | | Titans 19-Colts 10 | Winner: Parris Campbell. Campbell has 44.7 PPR points over the past two games, thanks in large part to a whopping 23 targets. He's actually averaging a pretty pedestrian 5.5 yards per target, as his role has largely come from a desire to get the ball out quickly and keep Matt Ryan safe from the pass rush. That's good news for Campbell, obviously, though I do wonder how sustainable it is -- are they going to keep drawing up these quick-hitting passes when Jonathan Taylor isn't on a pitch count (he played 55% of the snaps in his return from an ankle injury). I'm going to struggle with where to rank Campbell next week.
Loser: Alec Pierce . The good news is, Pierce's role continued to grow, as he played 97% of the snaps in Week 7, by far the highest mark of his career. Unfortunately, that didn't translate to production, as he was targeted just four times on 44 attempts for 37 yards on three catches. He's clearly a talented player, and the snap share rising is a good sign. But the Campbell- and Taylor-centric gameplan didn't leave much time for the more downfield-oriented routes Pierce is running. He's got potential, but I'm definitely not ready to trust Pierce yet. One more thing: Taylor ended up leading the team's running backs in snaps with 35, to 24 for Nyheim Hines, and while it wasn't a great game for him, I actually found his usage pretty promising. In a game where the Colts dropped back to pass on 75% of their snaps, Taylor ran more routes than Nyheim Hines even though he was clearly being worked back in slowly coming back from his injury. If we got anything like an 18% target share from Taylor moving forward, he'd probably be the No. 1 RB. | | Commanders 23-Packers 21 | | Injuries: Allen Lazard (shoulder) -- Lazard was unable to return to the game, so we'll have to keep an eye on this one heading into Week 8. The Packers don't have a bye until Week 14, so hopefully this isn't one that requires Lazard to miss time. Winner: Terry McLaurin. McLaurin was targeted eight times on Taylor Heinicke's 33 pass attempts, a 24% mark. With Carson Wentz this season, it had been just a 16% mark, so that's a significant improvement. He turned those eight targets into five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown, so it wasn't exactly a massive game from McLaurin. But it might be easier to trust McLaurin (as a WR3 still) with Heinicke than Wentz if the targets are going to be more concentrated here. Loser: Aaron Rodgers . It just doesn't look like Rodgers trusts the scheme or his teammates. He was hurt by five drops in this one, so I can't totally blame him for that lack of trust, but I still don't think Rodgers has played at an especially high level regardless. And, even if you think he has, the point still stands that this is the receiving corps he's got. He needs to make it work with these guys, and he just isn't right now. He's a fringe starting QB, but there isn't much apparent upside here. One more thing: Brian Robinson had 20 carries (for 73 yards, with two catches for 13 yards), while Antonio Gibson had 59 yards on 10 carries, with three catches for 18 yards and a touchdown; J.D. McKissic had one carry and two targets but still ran nearly as many routes (nine) as Gibson (12). I think Gibson's probably just a better runner than Robinson and a better pass-catcher than McKissic, but until the Commanders coaching staff agrees with me, this is going to be a frustrating three-way split, with none of the backs likely to be much more than an RB3 in any given week. At the very least, I'd like to see them consolidate and get McKissic's snaps to Gibson. McKissic's role is shrinking, so maybe that's the plan. | | Panthers 21-Buccaneers 3 | Winner: D.J. Moore. The Buccaneers had Carlton Davis III and Sean Murphy-Bunting out for this one and Antoine Winfield left with a concussion, but even if you had told me all of that before the game, I wouldn't have bet on Moore having his best game of the season -- especially if you'd also told me the Panthers would throw the ball just 22 times, too. Moore is going to get a ton of targets moving forward -- he had a 45% target share in this one -- and there was always going to be some regression, because this offense probably couldn't be as bad as it was to open the season. Still, I'm going to have a hard time trusting him moving forward without at least one more game like this. For what it's worth, he had one catch for 10 yards in the second half.
Loser: Tom Brady. Brady now has just one multi-touchdown game in seven to open the season, which is pretty hard to believe with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both healthy right now. For what it's worth, Evans dropped what would have been a 64-yard touchdown on the first drive of the game, though that would have still only given him one touchdown for the game, so that first stat would still be in play. Brady missed high and long on some deep passes, but his 7-for-13 mark on passes 10-plus yards down the field wasn't awful, so I'm not sure there's an obvious explanation there. Brady is still throwing 40-plus times every week and he still has awesome weapons, so I'm not too worried about this slow start, but it's possible that the offensive line injury issues and Brady's advancing age have combined to make him less effective. One more thing: If you saw the Panthers running backs accounting for 218 yards in the first game without Christian McCaffrey -- against the Buccaneers, no less -- well, maybe you should be writing this newsletter. I'm not sure I have a good explanation for the Panthers sudden discovery of offensive success, except to say that the Buccaneers' offensive struggles and injuries on the defensive side of the ball probably helped. I don't think they'll repeat this kind of performance again this season, but it was nice to see there's at least some upside here -- the 23% target share for Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Forman combined was a nice sign, too. | | Giants 23-Jaguars 17 | Winner: Travis Etienne. After the first few weeks, it looked like it might take an injury to James Robinson to get Etienne to the point where he'd be the clear top option for the Jaguars, but that's exactly what he is right now. He played 53 of 65 snaps and all but one of the RB touches for the Jaguars -- Jamycal Hasty got the other one, while James Robinson failed to catch his lone target. Etienne ran the ball well, rushing for his first 100-yard game, but it's the usage that really stands out. He has top-12 upside if he's going to get 70% of the RB touches moving forward.
Loser: Trevor Lawrence . Lawrence looked like he was taking a big leap forward after the first three games of the season, but after his second touchdown-less game in the past three, that looks like a distant memory. Lawrence was just 6 for 15 on passes 15-plus yards down the field, and his 63.1 passer rating on such passes this season ranks 24th in the league. The talent is there, but too often, he's putting too much on these passes, rendering them uncatchable and leaving points on the board. If he can figure that out, this offense could really take off. One more thing: I should talk about the Giants, seeing as they won, but there wasn't a ton interesting going on here. Saquon Barkley had 24 carries and four targets, and he continues to get a huge amount of opportunities because he's so far and away the best player in the offense. Daniel Jones ran the ball really well, with 107 yards on 11 carries, however, and has three games with 68 or more rushing yards. He's already rushed for 343 yards, the second-most of his career, and if he can manage to sustain a 600-yard rushing pace, he's going to be worth using for Fantasy even if the passing production isn't great. | | Ravens 23-Browns 20 | | Injuries: David Njoku left the game with an ankle injury and was spotted on crutches after the game, though he downplayed the injury after the game, tweeting, "Be back soon." Whether that means Week 8 is a different question, but Njoku is worth stashing in all leagues. Winner: Gus Edwards. Given how the Ravens used J.K. Dobbins in his return from his torn ACL, I expected Edwards to be worked in pretty slowly. But that wasn't the case at all Sunday. He got 50% of the Ravens RB touches, and the share was more lopsided early on, as he had 10 of 13 RB carries in the first half -- Justice Hill didn't really get involved until the Ravens were running out the clock. Edwards looks like the lead back in this offense moving forward, and while that probably means middling RB2 upside, that's still a solid starting option. Expect 50-60 rushing yards and hope for a touchdown. Loser: Mark Andrews . Andrews more or less played his typical role in this one, but it's fair to wonder if the knee injury that kept him out of Wednesday and Thursday's practice was a bigger issue than they wanted us to think. Andrews is the focal point of this offense typically, but he was targeted just two times. The fact that the Ravens threw just 16 passes obviously played a part in that, and Andrews had an end zone target he couldn't hang on to that would've salvaged his game. Chalk it up to a bad game where Andrews may have been less than 100% in a less than ideal game script. He's still one of the top two player at his position. One more thing: In addition to that Andrews end zone target, there were a couple of other almost-touchdowns from the prominent pass-catches in this game. Rashod Bateman was downed inside the 1-yard line on one of his four catches, which turned into a Gus Edwards goal-line touchdown on the next play. On the other side, Amari Cooper scored what would have been a go-ahead 34-yard touchdown late in the game, but it was nullified by an offensive pass interference. Cooper definitely pushed off, but he would have 100 yards for the third time this season. You're probably just starting him every week at this time. | | Jets 16-Broncos 9 | | Injuries: Breece Hall (knee) -- The Jets fear Hall suffered an ACL injury, with testing set to confirm that diagnosis Monday. We can hope it's wrong, but that hope usually doesn't come to fruition in these situations. This is so unfortunate, because I think Hall legitimately had a chance to play his way into contention for the No. 1 overall pick next year, and now he might not even be ready for Week 1. Michael Carter is the top target on waivers wherever he is available ... Corey Davis (knee) -- Davis and Denzel Mims were both forced to leave Sunday's game, and while I hope they're okay, I can't help but wonder if that might not be the path for Elijah Moore to return to the Jets in a way that can make everyone happy. Don't drop him just yet ... Mike Boone (ankle) -- Boone's absence would create some clarity in what has been a three-way split in Denver's backfield, but it still wouldn't be a situation you want much to do with at this point. Winner: Jerry Jeudy. Brett Rypien wasn't good Sunday, but what success he found came when he looked Jeudy's way. Jeudy caught seven of 11 passes thrown his way for 96 yards; Rypien was 17 for 35 for 129 yards when targeting anyone else on the team. Russell Wilson is expected to be back next week, but maybe he can parlay this into some success with Wilson. Loser: Latavius Murray. Murray bailed you out if you started him because he scored a touchdown, but the Broncos weren't lying about Melvin Gordon still being the starter. Gordon not only started but got 13 touches for 10 for Murray. That split probably makes neither worth using in this miserable offense, but it's a bigger hit for Murray coming out Week 6, when it looked like he might be the starter moving forward. If you have to start one of them, Gordon is the best option, but let's hope you don't have to start either. One more thing: Look, for be it for me to criticize the 5-2 Jets, because all that matters is winning, right? But the lack of confidence this coaching staff has in this offense is kind of stunning. There were two separate moments in the fourth quarter where the Jets had a chance to put the game away and settled for field goals deep in Broncos territory -- once from the 22 and once from the 16-yard line. Again, they won, and that's what matters, but without Hall, this offense could get really ugly unless they have some reason to trust the passing game. | | Raiders 38-Texans 20 | Winner: Josh Jacobs. Jacobs was a popular bust pick in the preseason, and I'll admit I was part of that contingent. But Jacobs is playing at the highest level of his career right now, becoming just the eighth player since the merger with three straight games of 140-plus rushing yards and a touchdown. In that three-game span, Jacobs also has 13 catches on 15 targets. We knew Josh McDaniels' offense could create a lot of production at running back, but historically, his Patriots teams used multiple backs, with little regard for seniority, salary, or draft capital. However, with the way Jacobs is running right now, they'd be foolish to use anyone else, and they aren't fools. At this point, it's not a question of whether Jacobs is an RB1 moving forward; it's simply a question of how many RBs you'd rather have. I'm not sure it's more than six.
Loser: Brandin Cooks. In a game where the Texans threw the ball 41 times, Cooks had just five targets, as the Texans made a point of spreading the ball around. Cooks played 58 of 65 offensive snaps, so it's not like he saw a diminished role overall. However, with the team's overall struggles, Cooks isn't going to have much appeal at all for Fantasy if he isn't getting funneled 25% or more of the targets. He was well short of that this week, and is at just 19% over the past four weeks. Cooks isn't going to be worth starting if that remains the case. One more thing: Damien Pierce's snap share fell to 52%, his lowest since Week 1, though it's hard to come up with a good explanation for why -- the Texans lost by 18, but were actually leading heading into the fourth quarter. It was in that fourth quarter where Pierce's playing time really took a hit, as he played just six of 24 snaps -- two fewer than Dare Ogunbowale , who had played just one snap on offense all season before that. I didn't see anything about an injury, so I'm assuming it was just the Texans throwing up the proverbial white flag. Pierce still got 20 carries and four targets. His workload is about as secure as any back's, seemingly. | | Seahawks 37-Chargers 23 | | Injuries: DK Metcalf (knee) -- Metcalf was carted to the locker room and ruled out almost immediately, which isn't a great sign. We haven't seen any official update beyond that X-rays came back negative, and we'll have to wait for MRI results before we know Metcalf's status. Any serious injury here would be a bummer, and it would make it tougher to trust Geno Smith, despite his two touchdowns to Marquise Goodwin this week. I don't think that was sustainable ... Mike Williams (ankle) -- Williams had to be carted to the locker room late in this one as well, though luckily the Chargers have a bye in Week 8, so he'll have some extra time to get healthy. Hopefully that's all he needs. Winner: Kenneth Walker . I generally don't love the kind of profile we're working with here, because Walker probably isn't going to catch many passes, so he's going to have to be extremely efficient and get a lot of carries to be a must-start Fantasy running back. Of course, that's exactly what he was in college, and he's proving to be a home run hitter at the NFL level, with another long touchdown, this one going for 74 yards. You can't count on him doing that every week, but he's clearly an explosive athlete in an offense that is going to give him a bunch of opportunities every week to break one. Walker is following the Jonathan Taylor rookie season path, except Taylor didn't have consecutive 20-carry games until Week 17 and the playoffs; Walker did it in his first two starts. He might just be a top-12 back the rest of the way. Loser: Justin Herbert. This wasn't a terrible game from a Fantasy perspective for Herbert, but 21.92 Fantasy points on 51 attempts is not what you signed up for. I don't think Herbert has just lost the ability to play, or anything, but I do think he may not be 100% -- and his supporting cast definitely isn't. The bye week should help Keenan Allen get healthy, and hopefully it'll be enough time for Williams to get over his ankle injury, but the issue of the offensive line is a tougher one. He was pressured on 30% of his dropbacks Sunday, against a middle-of-the-pack Seahawks pass rush, and I'm not sure his line is going to get better. Hopefully they can figure it out during the bye, because Herbert isn't playing well right now. One more thing: Allen played just 23 of 69 snaps in his return from the hamstring injury that had kept him out since Week 1. That was frustrating if you started him, but he seemed to get through the game without incident, and he should be back to his usual role in Week 9, coming out of the bye. This might be the perfect opportunity to buy low on Allen during the bye. | | Chiefs 44-49ers 23 | | Winner: JuJu Smith-Schuster. Last week, I called Smith-Schuster a "fake winner," so I suppose this is my chance to eat crow. He had just five targets on 40 pass attempts last week, so this week's 24% target share from Patrick Mahomes was a lot more in line with what you want to see. And, while Smith-Schuster turned a decent game into a great one with a long catch-and-run touchdown, this one a 45-yarder in the fourth quarter, his 73 air yards this week were his third-highest total of the season, more than double last week's. He has eight targets in five of seven games, and while his 8.5 average depth of target isn't huge, it's Smith-Schuster's highest mark since 2019. I don't think he'll keep putting up 100-plus yards every week, Smith-Schuster is finding room in the offense and taking advantage of the opportunity in front of him. That's all you can ask for. (For what it's worth, the real "fake winner" here is Mecole Hardman, who somehow managed three touchdowns on six touches. Do not chase that.)Loser: Deebo Samuel. One of the concern I had with the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey was that it would make it harder for the 49ers' incumbent stars to stand out, and that was the case for Samuel, who was third on the team with seven targets (15% target share). I don't think you can blame much of that on McCaffrey, of course, and despite having just one carry in this one, Samuel still lined up in the backfield nine times, so that part of his game doesn't seem to be going away. The 49ers have a lot of mouths to feed now, and it might be a situation where one of the stars has to take a back seat every week. Hopefully, it's not Samuel every week; I don't think it will be. One more thing: We got a report before the game indicating that McCaffrey was likely to play around 20 snaps in his 49ers debut, and he played 20. He had eight carries and two targets, and I expect we're going to see around double those numbers moving forward. The question, of course, is going to be the targets -- is it just four or so per game, or can we count on him the be used similarly to how he was in Carolina? I'd bet it's somewhere in the middle, but there's a math problem here that is going to be tough to solve every week. One other thing: We got another report prior to kickoff Sunday indicating that the Chiefs were planning to switch up their RB usage, with Isiah Pacheco sliding into the starting lineup, and that's what we saw Sunday. Of course, the other part of that report was that Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire would get most of the snaps, with a "sprinkling" of Jerick McKinnon, and that wasn't exactly what we got. McKinnon actually led the Chiefs backs with 23 snaps, while Edwards-Helaire played 17 and Pacheco logged 18 -- most of which came in the fourth quarter of the blowout win. Far from Pacheco emerging as the lead back, this looks like a true three-man split, and the three backs combined for just 16 carries and four targets in an easy win. This might just be a backfield to avoid. | | Dolphins 16-Steelers 10 | Winner: Raheem Mostert. This was a weirdly quiet game, so there aren't a lot of good options, but Mostert is a pretty good one. He remains the clear lead back for the Dolphins, with 16 carries and five targets to just seven and two for Chase Edmonds , and he turned them into over 100 total yards and a touchdown in this one. Mostert has over 100 yards and a touchdown in two of his past three games and should probably be viewed as a rock-solid RB2 moving forward.
Loser: Diontae Johnson. I'm really struggling with Johnson. He continues to draw targets at a high rate -- 23% in a game where the Steelers threw 44 passes this week -- and continues to do not very much with them. This was Johnson's fifth game with 10 or more targets this season, and he's averaging just 59.6 yards in those games, with Sunday's 42 yards his worst showing yet. I tend to chase volume, and I tend to buy underperformers, and Johnson's 5.2 yards per target and 0% touchdown rate are both shockingly low, even by his standards. I'm betting on regression and betting on the volume, but I also have to wonder why the Steelers don't try to funnel some of those targets to George Pickens. The rookie caught all six passes thrown his way for 51 yards and a touchdown, and probably deserves an extended look as a go-to option. Whether he'll get that is a different question, but I think, he's a buy. The talent is clear. Of course, I'm also trying to buy low on Johnson. I contain multitudes. One more thing: The Dolphins scored on their first three drives and four of their first five, albeit with three of them ending on field goals. The offense kind of fell apart in the second half, however, as they turned the ball over on downs on their first drive and then punted on five straight possessions, picking up just two first downs along the way. I don't think there's much to be concerned about there, but Tua Tagovailoa was not particularly impressive in his first game back from the concussion, and there were multiple times where a better secondary probably comes away with a pick. We'll give him a mulligan coming off the injury, and he should still be a top-12 QB for Week 8 against the Lions. One other thing: I was going to call Pat Freiermuth a "winner" for his eight-catch, 75-yard game, and hey, you'll take that from your tight end every single week. But I did think it was worth noting that he had a pretty quiet game until the fourth quarter, when Kenny Pickett suddenly started looking for him constantly, with six of his 21 passes going Freiermuth's way. The second-year tight end caught five of them for 57 yards, and I'd like to see them get him more involved earlier in the game next time around. He's probably a top-12 tight end right now either way. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports | | Destination Brooklyn | ✔Scores & Highlights
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