| Good morning Voornaam, Investec has released their latest No Ordinary Wednesday podcast and I think it does a great job of talking through the tariff situation and what investors should be thinking about. Hosted by Jeremy Maggs and featuring Investec Wealth & Investment International’s Chief Investment Strategist, Chris Holdsworth, and Investment Strategist, Osagyefo Mazwai, I highly recommend you give it a listen at this link>>>
Taking a look at local company news, I'm afraid that I was right about Murray & Roberts - it's a doughnut. A zero. A nasty thing in which the difference between "business rescue" and "shareholder rescue" is made clear.
At the other end of the news spectrum, we find great news for Renergen shareholders regarding the company's fight with Springbok Solar. I don't think that this story is completely over yet, but it looks as though Renergen has scored an early win in the process.
In mining news, Anglo American's disposal of its steelmaking coal business to Peabody Energy is suddenly in doubt due to a fire at one of the mines. Over at Tharisa, production has been impacted by the weather, with PGM prices as the year-on-year highlight and other metrics under pressure.
In earnings news, Life Healthcare released a complicated trading statement that needs a careful read due to the accounting adjustments in the system. Trematon also released results and I must say that I struggle to understand some of their recent capital allocation decisions. Finally, Choppies announced the disposal of Choppies Zimbabwe.
These details and the Nibbles are available in Ghost Bites at this link>>>
The latest Magic Markets podcast was particularly fun to record. I know volatility can be a wild thing to deal with, but it's actually really exciting when you've been doing this for a while. We talked about our approach to these markets, with Moe actively trading them and me finally buying a few dips that looked dire yesterday and then suddenly came right. Most of all, we reflected on the circus that the markets can be. Enjoy it here>>>
You know what Friday means - great resources from the corporate finance industry, courtesy of DealMakers. As usual, there are summaries of local M&A, local corporate finance and African deals. There are also articles on tax trends in South African M&A, as well as dealmaking in Zimbabwe.
Have a great day and we will see you on Sunday for Weekender. |
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| GHOST STORIES: Diversification - the way to survive market chaos |
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| | | With the markets in disarray in the aftermath of tariffs, it looks like the theme this year is more around risk management in a bear market rather than which growth stocks to buy.
This is where strategic asset allocation becomes key, as discussed with Kingsley Williams of Satrix in this podcast.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST STORIES: STADIO - a growth story on the JSE |
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| | | STADIO Holdings has a growth story to tell. That’s a rare thing on the South African market. The tertiary education space is booming and STADIO is addressing that demand through a combination of contact learning and distance learning offerings.
On this podcast, CEO Chris Vorster and CFO Ishak Kula joined me to talk through the strategy, the growth prospects, the capital allocation strategy and the risks that keep them up at night. If you want to really dig into the STADIO business model, you’re in the right place! Find it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Q1 winners on the JSE |
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| In considering how the first few months of the year have played out, some surprising winners have emerged. The performance in gold is simply a case of the sector carrying on where it left off in 2024, but what about platinum? And where did that telecoms rally come from? Also, have retail stocks continued their slide since the previous episode of Ghost Wrap that focused on that issue?
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | The latest on Anglo American's Peabody deal, Life Healthcare's numbers, Renergen's initial win against Springbok Solar and other important updates on Choppies, Life Healthcare, Murray & Roberts, Tharisa and Trematon. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| Unlock the Stock - Fortress Real Estate Investments |
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| In the 50th edition of Unlock the Stock, Fortress Real Estate Investments made its debut on the platform to talk about the recent performance and strategic focus areas for the group. The recording of the management presentation and interactive Q&A is available at this link>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Adolescence: why do some things go viral? |
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| | | There’s a temptation to treat virality like a shot in the dark. But virality isn’t an accident - it’s chemistry. And when it works, it works for a reason: a potent mix of psychology, social contagion, and cultural timing. Dominique Olivier uses Adolescence as a perfect example in this piece>>> |
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| INVESTEC PODCAST: Positioning for tariff turmoil |
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| | | In this special edition of Investec’s No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Chris Holdsworth and Osagyefo Mazwai to delve into the recent market turmoil following President Donald Trump's controversial tariff announcements. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| JP Morgan is due to release results today. This kicks off the banking earnings week in the US, where the most famous names on Wall Street tend to release earnings at roughly the same time.
You can therefore expect to see the markets latching onto every word said by the likes of Jamie Dimon, the doyen of banking. I'm long JP Morgan as well as Goldman Sachs, so I'll be keeping a close eye on both of them. These are strategic long-term plays for me. The concept of "US Exceptionalism" might be in question right now, but there's zero doubt about where you'll find the most talented bankers in the world and the deepest capital pools.
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on Berkshire Hathaway, the GOAT. Coming into 2025 with a more conservative positioning certainly seems to have been the right call. But how much do you really know about the iconic investment holding company that Warren and Charlie built? For our subscribers, we look at what you'll find on that balance sheet and why it's so interesting. |
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| Magic Markets: Consumer Conundrum |
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| | | Magic Markets: The first quarter of the year was an unhappy one for most consumer stocks. Tariffs are top of mind, as is the pressure that many brands have been facing in China. Inflation is a risk and consumer sentiment is weak. Against this backdrop, is there opportunity in this sector, or is it better to sit this one out and let the volatility do its thing?
And does it make a difference to look at discretionary vs. defensive stocks? To learn more, listen to this podcast>>> |
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| Macroeconomic indicators and IG Markets macro update |
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| Global financial markets are experiencing heightened volatility due to ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the US and China. This uncertainty has led to significant declines overnight once again in major stock indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
We are seeing a slight rebound this morning in global equity markets and could see a marginally positive start for the JSE All-Share Index today - the sustainability of which will come into question as the day progresses.
The escalating trade war has prompted investors to seek safer assets, causing currencies such as the Swiss franc and yen to strengthen. The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high, and the yen is at its strongest in six months. This shift towards safe-haven currencies indicates a growing concern among investors about the economic stability of major economies.
Gold prices have surged to new record highs above $3,200 per ounce as investors continue to flock to safe-haven assets. This trend shows no signs of slowing down, with gold remaining a preferred choice for those seeking to mitigate risks associated with the volatile market conditions.
Bond yields have seen significant increases. The 10-year US Treasury yield is experiencing its largest weekly gain since 2001, while the 30-year yield is set for its biggest jump since at least 1982. This rise in bond yields reflects a broader shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics.
Oil prices have fallen due to concerns over reduced crude consumption resulting from the prolonged trade dispute between the US and China. The fear of a sharp downturn in the global economy has led to decreased demand expectations, further impacting oil prices.
The economic environment remains challenging as investors navigate the impacts of trade tensions and seek some stability in safer assets.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R19.35/$ | US 10yr 4.42% | Gold $3,212/oz | Platinum $928/oz | Brent Crude $63.68
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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