| |
|
| Thursday, May 8, 2025 |
| If you interact with me on X, you may have received a simple reply at some point along the way: |
| "YKB" |
| You know ball. It's a joy to meet fellow ball-knowers and an honor to receive the "YKB" reply out in the streets. It can be rough out there. The takes, they do be flying. Sometimes it ain't easy to keep a level head. But YKB, right? Don't let the nonsense out there seep into your glorious ball-knowing mind. YKB. |
| |
| Today's newsletter is here to serve as an affirmation. I prepared 10 questions for you to put your ball-knowing to the test. I believe in you. You're here reading the FFT Newsletter, after all. And if you come out the other side with a score that's not where you hoped it would be, let that be. It's all good. You're in the right place. We have a long summer ahead of us. It would be my honor to catch you up to speed. Everyone does not know ball at some point. We learn! |
| Ten questions. You'll find the grading rubric below. |
Five or fewer correct answers = We're here to learn (You're at your AD Mitchell stage)
Six correct answers = Flashes of elite ball-knowing potential (This is the Ladd McConkey stage)
Seven-eight correct answers = Confirmed ball knower with the credentials to prove it (Jalen Hurts stage of evolution)
Nine correct answers = Might just be a ball-knowing legend (Klint Kubiak stage of evolution. Perfect score feels possible with better circumstances)
10 correct answers = Supreme ball knower (You could definitely run the Dallas Cowboys) |
| Question 1 |
| |
| |
| The first question is one that I posed recently to a friend as we drove five and a half freaking hours to Oklahoma City to watch the Thunder choke away Game 1 of their playoff series vs. the Denver Nuggets: |
| Question 1 -- Which teams are you the most excited to watch in 2025? |
| My buddy's answer: The Minnesota Vikings |
| This surprised me! But it's definitely a ball-knower's answer. Kevin O'Connell commands fascination after what he did with Sam Darnold in 2024. What might the 2025 season bring us with J.J. McCarthy at QB? |
| And just to feather his ball-knower cap, my bud capped off his Vikings summary by saying, "I just love watching Aaron Jones, man." |
| YKB, Cody! There are 28 running backs with 600+ combined rush attempts across the 2020-24 seasons. The highest success rate among the group belongs to Aaron Jones. Only Nick Chubb has a higher yard per rush rate. Jones also has the fifth-most receiving yards among that group. He's an absolute joy to watch and might be one of the most underrated running backs of the past decade. Ball knowers know, though. |
| My answer was the Jacksonville Jaguars. Duuuuuuuvalllllll, baby, how can you not be fired up? Liam Coen with explosives in the form of Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Bhayshul Tuten at his disposal? Only four more months! |
| Correct answers for Question 1 include: |
Chicago Bears
Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers
Washington Commanders
Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans, if you've been stuck in a loop of screaming at your TV after every first and second-down run for -1 yards
Denver Broncos, if you're sick in the head and think about RJ Harvey every day
Arizona Cardinals, if you're a true sicko. I'm so curious about their defense!
|
| These answers are arbitrary, of course. I make the rules. I am a supreme ball-knower. I hope that you can have fun with it! Feel free to let me know if you think I was unfair with any of these questions or answers! |
| Question 2 |
| |
| Maybe the best current YKB litmus test is to let a person talk about Brock Purdy. Previously, we had Dak Prescott discourse as an easy way to weed out casuals, and before that, Tony Romo. |
| So, how do you feel about Brock Purdy? |
| Question 2 -- Is Brock Purdy a top-15 QB? |
| Brock Purdy, the YAC merchant? The system QB? Is that guy a top-15 QB? Surely not. |
| Guess how many quarterbacks saw a lower percentage of their passing yards come after the catch than Purdy in 2024. Four. Out of 31 qualifiers, Purdy ranked 27th. Only 42.7% of his yards came after the catch. He was pressured at the 10th highest rate. Only 17% of his pressures resulted in a sack, the sixth-lowest rate. |
| Circumstances weren't great in San Fran last year. And still, Purdy ranked eighth in catchable ball rate (76.5% - per Data.FantasyPoints.com). Purdy's catchable ball rate when not pressured (82%) was the seventh-highest. |
| Purdy has two seasons as a full-time starter under his belt, and he's ranked top-five in passing yards per game in each. |
| Correct answer for Question 2: Yes |
| Here's a list of who I would definitely take over Purdy to QB my team in 2025: |
Patrick Mahomes
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Joe Burrow
Jalen Hurts |
| Probably: |
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Dak Prescott
Baker Mayfield
Jayden Daniels
C.J. Stroud
|
| Five definitely, six probably. Beyond that, it's an interesting conversation that involves Jared Goff, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love . In my opinion, Purdy is clearly top 15 and has a case for top 10. He showed a new level of playmaking as a scrambler and downfield thrower in 2024 with most of his supporting cast missing. Many NFL fans will continue to disparage Purdy, but ball-knowers respect. |
| Question 3 |
| |
| |
| Question 3 -- Is Geno Smith a top-15 QB? |
| If you don't know this answer, please learn some ball. |
| Correct answer for Question 3: Yes |
| |
| Here's a simpler stat - passing yards per game rank: |
QB6 - 2024
QB12 - 2023 (with Shane Walrdon at OC)
QB10 - 2022 (Shane Waldron) |
| I think that Geno has a compelling case for top-10 status ahead of the likes of Stafford, Prescott, and Stroud. He brings underrated pocket navigation and escapability, and he can make any throw on the field. Only Joe Burrow delivered a higher catchable ball rate (88%) from a clean pocket than Geno (85%) in 2024. |
| Question 4 |
| This one is a fill-in-the-blank, not a yes/no. You have to name him because he is him. Do your best not to scroll ahead, for you might see an image that spoils the answer. |
| Question 4 -- Who is the most underrated RB in the NFL in the year 2025? |
| Hint: He's a multi-year starter |
| To be clear, I am asking you to name the most underrated RB right now, at this moment in time. Aaron Jones is not the answer, although he performed admirably in 2024. Tony Pollard is not the answer. He may have held that title at one point, and he was great in 2024. But the correct answer outshines him. |
| I am basing this answer off of 2024 film and data. As far as I can tell, we are talking about one of the best running backs in the NFL. He'd be in my top 10. |
| But he seems to go overlooked. For Fantasy, in real-life football discussions, almost anywhere that I hear football talked about, not much attention is given to this player. |
| |
| Correct answer for Question 4: James Conner |
| |
| According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, James Conner tied Derrick Henry with 68 avoided tackles in 2024. Bijan Robinson (60) was the only other back with 60+, and only three more joined the 50+ club -- Josh Jacobs (58), Jahmyr Gibbs (58), and Bucky Irving (54). Among that group, Conner's missed tackle forced per attempt rate ranked first. Who in their right mind would want to tackle this man? |
| Percentage of runs that gained 10+ yards in 2024: |
13.0% - Bucky Irving
13.3% - Saquon Barkley
13.8% - Derrick Henry
14.4% - James Conner
16.4% - Jahmyr Gibbs |
Yards per route run in 2024:
(minimum 250 routes) |
1.33 - Rachaad White
1.46 - De'Von Achane
1.55 - James Conner
1.67 - Jahmyr Gibbs
1.77 - Alvin Kamara |
| Conner tied Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs for yards per rush on runs where initial contact was met at or behind the line of scrimmage. Among backs with over 100 such runs, only Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, and Saquon Barkley ranked higher. On runs where initial contact was met beyond the line of scrimmage, Conner averaged 7.3 yards. For reference, that ranked sixth out of 31 qualifiers. |
| |
| I'd throw Tony Pollard and Chuba Hubbard in the ring with Conner for consideration as the most underrated backs in the NFL, but I do think Conner takes it easily. He's done it for longer and is still contributing at a high level in all facets of the game. Arizona's front office decided to load up on defense this offseason, mostly leaving the 2024 version of the offense intact to run it back in 2025. I expect the team's philosophy to center around bullying opponents on the ground, and Conner is just the man to do it. He again looks like a great Fantasy football value anywhere after the first three rounds. |
| Question 5 |
| This one's a bit tricky. You're going to have to earn your 10/10 score if you want to call yourself a Supreme Ball Knower. |
| Question 5 -- How would you rank these three young slot receivers: |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ladd McConkey
Josh Downs |
| Think about it for a moment before scrolling to see my answer! |
| |
| Correct answer for Question 5: |
1. McConkey
2. Downs
3. JSN |
| This one might not age well with the uncertainty in the Indianapolis QB room. It's a conviction call for me. And it's backed by both film and data. |
| If comparing Fantasy Points Data separation score, JSN is a distant third. Same result if comparing yards per route run. Here's a cool metric that I made up -- yards per catchable target vs. man coverage. Both McConkey and Downs ranked top-10 in 2024. JSN's rate rose in Year 2 and was even better than his teammate in DK Metcalf. But Downs has a higher rate than JSN in both 2023 and 2024. |
| JSN is extremely smooth as a route runner and may develop into the best player in this group. He has the potential to be something special, I really do believe that. He has a savvy to his game and a focus that shows up intermittently in press coverage reps, contested catch reps, and when working back towards the ball at the top of his route that is true premier-grade stuff. It only shows up intermittently, though. And he doesn't have the athleticism to win without consistent every-rep focus. That's where both McConkey and Downs have an advantage. Those two can be completely overwhelming as lightning-quick lateral movers. |
| More than any player, even more than my love Bucky Irving, McConkey's film blew my mind on a week-to-week basis in the early goings of the 2024 season. This tweet from Matt Harmon encapsulated what I saw. |
| |
| Defenses became obsessed with locating McConkey and being prepared to help his defender out in man-coverage situations. And he attracted multiple zone coverage eyes too. His start/stop suddenness is unfair. You can only hope to contain it. |
| Question 6 |
| |
| Question 6 -- Who has been the NFL's most efficient receiver over the past two seasons? |
| This one is a freebie, I gave you the picture before the punch line, as it doesn't feel fair to expect you to guess it. Some of you probably still did. Congrats, give yourself an extra half point if you'd like. YKB the most, wow! |
| In terms of securing catches, Khalil Shakir stands out as the best. Shakir (82%) and Rashee Rice (80%) are the only qualified receivers with a catch rate of 80% or better across the 2023-24 seasons. Shakir also edges Rice out in explosive reception rate and yards per target during that time. |
| Has he actually been the most efficient receiver, outside of catch rate? No. We're having fun here. I'm just taking a moment to highlight this awesome unexpected Round 5 breakout. |
| Over the past two seasons, only Brandon Aiyuk (11.3), Nico Collins (11.1), Justin Jefferson (10.3), Jameson Williams (10.2), and Alec Pierce (10.0 - you weren't expecting that name were you!) have a higher yard per target rate than Shakir. Collins has the lowest average depth of target of that group, at 10.9 yards. Shakir's aDOT is 6.6 yards. And yet Shakir (9.9 yards) has averaged nearly as many yards per target as Jefferson. He's ahead of Ja'Marr Chase (9.1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.1), and CeeDee Lamb (8.8) and tied with A.J. Brown. The dude is a stud! |
| In terms of the total package, Nico Collins takes the real title of most-efficient WR in the NFL over the past two seasons. He is the only WR to hit the pristine 3.00 yard per route run rate during that time. He creates massive separation, is a contested catch behemoth, and a yards after catch demon. I'm very much looking forward to what he might be capable of in a new offensive ecosystem that includes two dangerous and diverse weapons in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. |
| Question 7 |
| |
| Question 7 -- How many little buff boys do your Fantasy football benches boast? |
| If you have not seen 'I Think You Should Leave, with Tim Robinson,' then this joke is probably going to (coffin) flop. |
| For me, Jaylen Warren was the winner of the Little Buff Boy competition in 2024. He's on almost every Dynasty bench that I have. I won a Dynasty championship starting Warren last year! Nobody wants him after the Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson, but Warren remains one of the most tenacious and effective of runners in the NFL when healthy. |
| Jaylen Warren's ranks among 48 running backs with 300+ rushes (2022-24): |
RB6 - Yards per rush
RB1 - Avoided tackle rate |
| Warren has a better-than-league-average rushing success rate, even while playing in an often-dysfunctional offensive environment. That stat is heavily influenced by team success. It can be effective in comparing players within the same backfield, though. While Najee Harris ranks 35th out of 48 qualified backs with a 42.9% rate, Warren's 46% rate comes in just below Derrick Henry (46.2%) and James Conner (46.9%). |
| Guess who has the best rushing success rate among qualified backs over the past two seasons? Another little buff boy -- David Montgomery (53%) -- a staple of my approach to Dynasty Fantasy success is loading up at the premium positions and allocating minimal resources to the RB position. Montgomery has been a huge part of that and is the veteran LBB in the house. |
| So, back to our question, how many LBB do your Fantasy football benches boast? |
| Correct answer to question 7: No fewer than three! |
| Little buff kings (graduated from LBB bench depth): |
Alvin Kamara
Ashton Jeanty
Kyren Williams
Jonathan Taylor
Aaron Jones
Kenneth Walker
Chase Brown (a LBB who outweighs him by 20 pounds may vie for the throne in 2025!) |
| LBB bench stashes: |
David Montgomery
Jordan Mason
Jaylen Warren
Cam Skattebo
RJ Harvey (could quickly be anointed king of Mile High, there is a void left following the sad end of Javonte Williams ' reign)
Ray Davis
MarShawn Lloyd
Tahj Brooks
Jordan James
Jarquez Hunter
Tyler Allgeier
Khalil Herbert
Blake Corum
Sean Tucker
Sione Vaki
Woody Marks
Corey Kiner |
| These are the only LBB that I am holding onto outside of absurdly deep Dynasty benches. I had to let go of Kimani Vidal, Izzy Banikanda, and Julius Chestnut this offseason. Pour one out. |
| A winning strategy is to load up at least three LBB on the bench at all times. This does not include your starters. If a Jaylen Warren must rise to the occasion and start for you, his absence on the bench needs to be supplemented by a MarShawn Lloyd or a Jordan Mason. Feel free to find slim reapers who can put up massive point totals for your starter spots. The hope is to build juggernauts with such overwhelming resources at the premium positions so as to be able to eventually employ the help of elite RB options. Leave it to the LBB to hold it down until you arrive there, though. |
| Question 8 |
| If we drafted from the existing NFL minds, how many are you selecting ahead of Liam Coen to design your offense? |
| Think about it for a moment. |
| Question 8 -- How many coaches would you choose over Duval? |
| Do you have an answer? Scroll down to find mine, then! |
| |
| Correct answer for Question 8: |
| No more than six! |
| I did a similar exercise last year -- instead of specifically drafting offensive designers, I opened the discussion up to head coaches. I'd listen to anyone who chose five of the seven from the list below over Coen. Personally, I'd take Sean McVay, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, and KOC over him. |
| |
| Sean Payton probably has to go ahead of Coen. Beyond that, it's an extremely interesting discussion. |
| The Bucs ranked 17th in offensive EPA per play in 2023. Only the Ravens, Bills, and Lions ranked ahead of Tampa in 2024. The Bucs were eighth in rushing success rate (42.3%) in 2024 after ranking dead last (28.2%) in 2023. Adding Graham Barton on the interior helped, as did Bucky Irving's addition. But Coen's run designing cannot be overlooked. |
| Future newsletters will detail the importance of pre-snap motion among other offensive cheat codes, and I have a feeling we're going to spend some time focusing on Coen's 2024 film. It's extremely exciting to envision the life he may inject into a Jaguars offense that has felt in need of resuscitation for a long time. |
| Question 9 |
| |
| Question 9 -- Are you a "Coke-head?" |
| It's going to be very interesting to see how the target distribution shakes out in Carolina now that Bryce Young has two WR1s available to him! |
| |
| Jalen Coker averaged more yards per route run (1.73) than Marvin Harrison Jr. (1.64) as a rookie. He ranked top-10 in yards per target over expectation, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite (minimum 40 targets): |
| |
| I'm not sure what the role will look like for Carolina's UDFA diamond in the rough in Year 2, but his Year 1 was super fun and encouraging, and I am a fan. |
| Correct answer for Question 9: |
| I'm Coked-up, got Jalen Coker on every Dynasty bench, it's the only way to live! |
| Question 10 |
| |
| Question 10 -- Are you a Fannin fanatic? |
| Harold Fannin Jr.'s movement style is unorthodox, and so many don't know what to make of him. I think he's a stud. If you follow this link, you'll find him tearing up the Texas A&M secondary with his bizarre YAC magic. If you follow this link, you'll find more clips of Fannin creating separation, winning at the catch point, and creating yards after the catch. |
| Fannin's career yielded unprecedented receiving production. |
| |
| His production came at a smaller school, but the same can be said for Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid, and Fannin massively outproduced both. |
Fannin compared to McBride
Fannin compared to Kincaid |
| And his production only improved vs. better competition: |
| |
| I've been landing Fannin as late as Round 3 of rookie drafts, even in TE premium formats. That's so absurd. Maybe his skill set won't translate as a pro, but the cost associated with betting on him is so cheap. |
| His landing spot in Cleveland doesn't present an immediate clear path to playing time, but I don't view that as a bad thing. Fannin is still extremely young, and I feel good about him getting a low-pressure opportunity to develop and refine his game while sharing space with greats like Kevin Stefanski, Joe Flacco, and David Njoku. |
| Correct answer to question 10: |
| Indubitably |
| So, how did you do?! If you made it to this point in the quiz, go ahead and give yourself a bonus point for being a willing reader and learner. That's an important step along the way in ball-knowing! |
| Thanks for being here! I hope that this was a fun detour from the regularly scheduled programming, we'll be back to addressing serious football inquiries on Friday! |
| |
| | | | | Golazo Show | | Truist | Every goal of the UEFA Europa League Semifinals. All in one place. The Golazo Show is live today at 2 PM ET on the CBS Sports Golazo Network and streaming on Paramount+.
Watch Live
| | Rory McIlory shoots for his fifth win at the Truist Championsip this weekend. Watch live this Saturday and Sunday at 3 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+!
Watch Live
|
|
| |
| |
