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| Monday, September 18, 2023 |
| Week 1 is fun because it's the first opportunity we get to test all those theories we spent all offseason touting. |
| Week 2 is fun because it's our first opportunity to test which of those theories we thought we got right or wrong in Week 1 will go in the opposite direction. Maybe the best example of that came in the form of Christian Kirk. |
| I was wary of Kirk coming into the season, especially after the preseason showed him playing a clear third in the Jaguars receiving hierarchy. Then he came out in Week 1 and had just one catch on three targets while playing 60% of the snaps, and it sure looked like that preseason skepticism was warranted. |
| And then Week 2 came around and Kirk was Trevor Lawrence's favorite target. He bounced back to an 81% snap share and caught 11 of 14 targets for 110 yards, each of which led the team. It was a massive game, one week after Kirk looked like he might end up being a Fantasy also-ran. |
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| Now comes the really fun part: Trying to figure out which one was real. In Kirk's case, it might be matchup dependent, as I pointed out in Sunday's winners and losers column. In some other cases, things might not be so clear cut; Drake London's up-and-down start to the season has done little to answer questions about his breakout potential, and might just end up being the rule moving forward, not the exception. |
| We're turning our attention to Week 3 in today's newsletter, as I've got my initial rankings ready to go for you. Of course, there's still a whole bunch we don't know about Week 3, not least of which being the status of Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Joe Burrow (calf). Reports indicate Barkley could miss three weeks, but an MRI taken Monday indicated no serious damage, so while I do think he'll miss this week's Thursday game, he might be back not long after that. In Burrow's case, Monday provided little more clarity than we had Sunday, as he looks legitimately up in the air for Week 3. |
| Today's rankings also have my thoughts on some of biggest questions for each position looking ahead to the upcoming week and beyond, and in tomorrow's newsletter, we'll have Jamey Eisenberg's full waiver-wire breakdown for you, plus some trade advice from myself and Dave Richard. |
| If you've got trade questions, send them my way at Chris.Towers@Paramount.com to be included – and you can send me waiver-wire, lineup, and any other questions you might have to be included later in the week, with the subject line "#AskFFT" so I can keep track of your questions and get those answers to you. |
| For now, here's your first look at the Week 3 rankings: |
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| Week 3 QB Rankings |
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| Biggest question |
| Is Jordan Love a viable starting option? |
| Credit to Love for making the plays that are there, and to the Packers coaching staff for scheming guys open the way they have, but I don't see much reason to view Love as a viable starting QB in 1QB leagues right now. He hasn't been bad, necessarily, but "six touchdowns to zero interceptions" definitely overstates how good he's been – he has a 55.8% completion percentage, and he's -10.8% on Completion Percentage Above Expected , per NFL Next Gen Stats, the third-lowest mark in the league. |
| I think Love has been fine, especially for not having Christian Watson in either game and Aaron Jones for Week 2. But I haven't seen much reason to think he's going to lead a high-volume, high-efficiency passing attack, and he's not showing a ton as a scrambler. He's getting what is there, and he's been especially good near the end zone, but I don't think there's much here for Fantasy. At least not yet. |
| For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. |
| Top-12 QBs for Week 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes vs. CHIJosh Allen @WAS Jalen Hurts @TBLamar Jackson vs. INDTua Tagovailoa vs. DEN Justin Herbert @MIN Trevor Lawrence vs. HOUJustin Fields @KCGeno Smith vs. CAR Kirk Cousins vs. LAC Daniel Jones @SFDak Prescott @ARI |
| Week 3 RB Rankings |
| Biggest questions |
| Is D'Andre Swift an RB1 moving forward? |
| How good was Swift in Week 2? He's now sixth in the league in NFL Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected despite getting just one carry in Week 1. He benefited from incredible blocking, to be sure, but it would be a mistake to just write his strong showing off as the product of good blocking. He got plenty on his own. |
| The case for Swift in Philly was always that he is an explosive playmaker who could make the most of elite blocking, and we absolutely saw that in Week 1. I'm tentatively ranking him as a top-12 RB for Week 3, but what we don't know is whether Swift did enough with that performance Thursday to supplant Kenneth Gainwell as the Eagles lead back. If it were up to me, it would have been, but I am unlikely to be hired as the Eagles head coach between now and Sunday, so I don't think that opinion carries much weight. |
| Still, my view of the Eagles backfield since the preseason has been that the Eagles gave Gainwell the incumbent edge, knowing he was a solid, dependable option they could trust. But they also have to know that Gainwell is not a particularly special player, so it should have taken a lot less than what Swift did in Week 2 to upend that hierarchy. If Gainwell is cleared to play for Week 3, Swift will probably be an RB2, but it'll be a ranking I make with a low degree of conviction until we have some evidence about how the Eagles plan to distribute RB touches. |
| Does James Cook have a goalline problem? |
| The Bills have played 133 snaps from 10 yards or further from the goal line, and Cook has been out there for 60% of them, and his workload has been very strong so far – he has 29 carries and 10 targets in two games and looks like a clear win for people who drafted him as an RB2 this season. That kind of workload gives Cook a real path to an RB1 season. |
| But it'd be even clearer if the Bills weren't pulling him out in the most valuable part of the field. They played 18 snaps in the Green Zone, from 10 yards and into the opponent's end zone, and Cook has been on the field for just four of them. Damien Harris has played eight of those snaps and Latavius Murray has logged six of them, with Cook getting just one Green Zone carry through two games. |
| That's going to make scoring touchdowns awfully tough for Cook, and that's going to make it tough to put together a truly difference-making season. The best comparison for Cook right now is either Aaron Jones or Rhamondre Stevenson , who scored seven and six touchdowns last season, but were still low-end RB1s thanks to efficient running and strong pass-catching skills. Cook is a must-start RB, but watching him come out of the game as soon as he gets the Bills near the goal line over and over is going to be frustrating, and I'm not sure it's changing. |
| For more on the state of the position for Week 2, head here. |
| Top-24 RBs for Week 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey vs. NYGNick Chubb vs. TEN Tony Pollard @ARIDerrick Henry @CLEJosh Jacobs vs. PIT Bijan Robinson @DET Jahmyr Gibbs vs. ATLMiles Sanders @SEAKenneth Walker vs. CAR Travis Etienne vs. HOUD'Andre Swift @TB Joe Mixon vs. LAR Rhamondre Stevenson @NYJJavonte Williams @MIA Rachaad White vs. PHI Kyren Williams @CINJames Conner vs. DAL James Cook @WAS Zack Moss @BALNajee Harris @LVAlexander Mattison vs. LAC Raheem Mostert vs. DENDameon Pierce @JAX Joshua Kelley @MIN |
| Week 3 WR Rankings |
| Biggest questions |
| How high should Puka Nacua be ranked? |
| The beginning of my rankings process every week involves a rudimentary projections process – I start at the team level, using historical data and Vegas lines to project snap and scoring data, and then work down to the player level to try to determine what share of the pie each player is going to get, and then I adjust from there. I say all that to note that, it would be really easy to project Nacua as a top-five wide receiver right now. The Rams have run the most plays in the NFL through two games, and they've dropped back to pass 98 times already, with Nacua earning a colossal 38% target share. Even bumping that down to a 30% target share on 37 pass attempts would slot Nacua in as my No. 3 projected WR for Week 3 against the Bengals. |
| I've got him ranked 14th. Now, that's a massive jump from where Nacua started the season, obviously, but it's a far cry from what he's accomplished as the No. 2 WR in Fantasy through two weeks. Nacua has shown the ability to win in the short areas of the field or down the field; he's winning vs. zone and man coverage; the Rams are even starting to dial up some run plays for him, like they've done for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in the past. His start looks legitimate, and I do think he could still be a WR2 even when Kupp is back; the Woods comp sticks in my mind here. |
| I really feel like even WR14 might be too low for him right now. Matthew Stafford is locked in on him, and it's led to historic production for the rookie wide receiver, and I don't necessarily think it's a fluke. The only hesitation comes from the fact that we're still dealing with a really small sample size, and it's just a little scary to rank a fifth-round rookie over the likes of Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and the rest after just two games. |
| The point is, you're starting him. Even in a league where I have Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Tee Higgins, I'm starting Nacua this week, and I would be doing so even if Joe Burrow played. I might be ranking him too low, but I'm not going to leave Nacua out of my lineup again. |
| How high should Nico Collins be ranked? |
| Collins is having an incredible start to the season, with 13 catches for 226 yards and one score so far. He's benefited from the massive pass volume in Houston, but he's also fifth in the NFL in air yards so far on just 20 targets, and those 20 targets come out to a 22% target share, a pretty solid mark for someone used primarily as a downfield option. I don't think he's a WR1 for Fantasy suddenly – the Texans probably won't have C.J. Stroud keep averaging 45-plus passes per game as a rookie, after all – but he's definitely moved into the WR3 discussion. The pace will slow down, and there will be some duds when Collins and Stroud inevitably struggle to hit on some of these downfield passes, but the usage is very strong in an offense that sure looks like it'll remain pass-heavy moving forward, and I've moved Collins into the WR2/3 range, with big weekly upside. I love what we're seeing so far. |
| For more on the state of the position for Week 3, head here. |
| Top-24 WRs for Week 3 |
| Justin Jefferson vs. LACTyreek Hill vs. DENStefon Diggs @WAS Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. ATLCeeDee Lamb @ARI Keenan Allen @MIN Calvin Ridley vs. HOUJaylen Waddle vs. DENA.J. Brown @TBJa'Marr Chase vs. LAR Chris Olave @GBDevonta Smith @TBDeebo Samuel vs. NYGPuka Nacua @CINDK Metcalf vs. CAR Tyler Lockett vs. CARMike Williams @MIN Brandon Aiyuk vs. NYG Amari Cooper vs. TENMichael Pittman @BAL Jerry Jeudy @MIATerry McLaurin vs. BUF DeAndre Hopkins @CLE Mike Evans vs. PHI |
| Week 3 TE Rankings |
| Biggest question |
| Where are all the breakouts? |
| Sam LaPorta has been pretty good, though even that's relative -- he had 10 catches on 11 targets for 102 yards, ranking as TE4 through 2 weeks mostly because the position has been kind of a disaster. 5.5 targets per game isn't great, but he's emerged quickly as a dependable option for Jared Goff, and his after-the-catch skills give him opportunities to break some big plays even when he isn't being targeted down the field. I feel very good about LaPorta as my starting TE right now if he needs to be. |
| Otherwise? Well, much ballyhooed rookie Dalton Kincade has been fine, with nine catches on 10 targets, though for only 69 yards, while teammate Dawson Knox has been more involved near the goal line. HE hasn't been bad, but he's just been fine, nothing more. And that's more than we can say for Luke Musgrave , who flashed a solid downfield role in Week 1 but was a non-factor in Week 2. Greg Dulcich had a limited role in Week 1 before going on IR with a hamstring injury, while Jake Ferguson has turned 11 targets into 22 yards, testing the limits of how bad a Cowboys TE can be while still having Dak Prescott's trust; Ferguson started ceding some routes and snaps to Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot in Week 2, and it wouldn't surprise me if that trend continued. |
| I would often joke in the offseason that, "Hey, maybe tight end won't be so bad this year" is the Fantasy Football equivalent of famous last words, and it sure looks like optimism was misplaced this season. And that's without even getting into disastrous showings from Dallas Goedert, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts in the first two weeks. |
| For more on the state of the position for Week 3, head here. |
| Top-12 TEs for Week 2 |
| Travis Kelce vs. CHITJ Hockenson vs. LAC Mark Andrews vs. INDDarren Waller @SFDallas Goedert @TBGeorge Kittle vs. NYG Sam LaPorta vs. ATLEvan Engram vs. HOU David Njoku vs. TEN Kyle Pitts @DETJuwan Johnson @GB Zach Ertz vs. DAL |
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