| Dear Friend, This is your final notice that our Over My Shoulder sale ends tonight at midnight. You still have a few hours left to get my one-of-a-kind research service for just $9.95 per month. The analysis of our astute contributors has personally helped me through the past few months. It shows that the situation—from a health as well as an economic standpoint—is dire but not hopeless. Before I go, I want to reiterate some recent conclusions on the COVID Crisis from my friends at Gavekal: 1. China is a good template for understanding Europe and the US. All three regions reacted late and were forced to impose massive social controls, at great economic cost. China imposed its controls on January 23. Full controls on Hubei stayed in force for two months. Many residual controls remain in place. By March 31, the economy was operating at ~75% of normal capacity. Social controls imposed in Europe and the US in mid/late-March are likely to stay largely in place until mid/late-May; though regions may vary. 2. There are no silver bullets. Viral infections are hard to treat; promising COVID-19 treatments (chloroquine, remdesivir) have yet to have large-scale clinical trials on live subjects. A vaccine is a minimum 12-18 months away. There is no convincing evidence that the virus weakens in warm weather. 3. Exit strategies will be designed with caution. In the next [few] weeks, cases and deaths will rise sharply, but leading indicators (jolts) will start falling. Countries will then have about a month to figure out how to relax social controls without reigniting the epidemic. No doubt, it will take an enormous effort from everyone to finally leave this crisis behind us. I also don’t doubt that the economic fallout will affect us for quite a while after the pandemic itself has subsided. But we will have made it through... and we will be stronger for it. Like our forefathers, we’ve seen humanity at its most vulnerable, its most foolish, and its most heroic. And I, for one, am proud to be part of it. And a final reminder before I sign off: Today is the last day to join Over My Shoulder at a 33% discount, so please take us up on our offer before it ends. Click here to join us now. Your grateful for all our blessings analyst, John Mauldin
Co-Founder
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