| | | | Thursday, April 3, 2025 | | If I may, I'm going to borrow an aphorism to kick off today's newsletter. Okay, here goes: | | If you want to make God laugh, draw a strong conclusion from the first week of the MLB season. | | I know it's not quite as catchy as the original, but it works! Just think about the biggest narrative in baseball so far this season: Those dastardly Yankees and the unfair advantage offered by their early adoption of the torpedo bats. That narrative ran headlong into another one a lot of Fantasy players bought into this spring: Zac Gallen is finished! His struggles last season were just the start, they said, and his four-runs-in-four-innings showing on Opening Day was proof. | | Or not. | | Gallen utterly dominated the Yankees Wednesday, putting together one of the best starts of his impressive career in striking out 13 over 6.2 innings of work. He allowed just three hits and no walks, blanking an offense that was averaging 10-plus runs per game. And he did it with his entire arsenal, throwing four pitches at least 11% of the time and generating multiple whiffs on each of those four pitches – led, of course, by 13 with the curveball – en route to a huge 24-whiff showing. | | | | And those weren't the only early-season narratives that run into trouble Wednesday. With most pitchers making their second start of the season, it seemed like pretty much everyone did the opposite of their first start. Mackenzie Gore struggled after a brilliant debut; Luis Castillo quieted the doubters for at least one night himself; Carlos Rodon, Ryan Pepiot, and Jeffrey Springs all followed up impressive first outings with pretty mediocre ones Wednesday. The only real consistency came from the Dodgers, who extended their winning streak to eight games to open the season with a win over the Braves, whose winless streak extended to seven games. | | This game will humble you. The players know that, and Fantasy analysts and players need to understand it, too. They play 162 games for a reason, after all, and very little that we've seen so far should really change your opinion on most players. I originally typed "shouldn't really change your opinion on anyone," but that's not really how I feel – on Wednesday, I wrote about five early-season narratives that might matter, while Scott White highlighted the players who have moved up or down in his first rankings update of the season, and you should check those out to see what we've seen so far that we think does matter. Or might, at least. | | But know this: Whatever opinions you find changing right now, you should make sure you stay open-minded. As I write later in today's newsletter, Rafael Devers' early-season struggles are one obvious thing that has me pretty concerned, but he also gave us real signs of life Wednesday, which is why I don't want to draw too many strong conclusions right now. | | It can make you look dumb if you change your opinion drastically after a week, and I don't like looking dumb. Let's get to the rest of Wednesday's action, starting with the top waiver-wire targets from around the league: | | | | Thursday's top waiver-wire targets | | | | Here's who we're looking to add coming out of Wednesday's action: | | Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers (68%) – Given that we saw a few other starts Wednesday ruined by pitchers staying in just a bit too long, it's possible Leiter's early hook due to a blister was a blessing in disguise. But it was a really impressive start before the injury, as Leiter touched 99 mph and sat at 98 with his four-seamer while throwing five different pitches at least 10% of the time. He generated 11 whiffs on 70 pitches and did a good job working in the zone without surrendering much damage. Leiter's track record makes this a pretty inherently volatile profile, but just one walk in 10 innings of work so far is exactly what we wanted to see from a guy with the kind of stuff Leiter has. It might all fall apart on him, but I think he's shown enough here in the early going to be more or less a must-roster pitcher right now. | | Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals (53%) – In the preseason, I said Herrera was the Plan A for my No. 2 catcher spot and a very good Plan B, and I feel very good about that one right now. I mean, of course, I feel that way after a three-homer game, but this isn't just about Wednesday's performance, impressive as it was. Herrera is now hitting .467/.529/1.200 through his first five games, with a good approach at the plate and solid quality of contact metrics, just like he had last season. I wish he were playing even more – Pedro Pages has started a few games and has replaced Herrera late for defensive purposes in a few more – but that just doesn't matter all that much at this position. He might just be a must-roster catcher, too. | | Dennis Santana, RP, Pirates (16%) – So, yesterday I said I didn't have much interest in chasing the Pirates closer spot and I would let Derek Shelton tell me who to go add. Well, we didn't have to wait long for Shelton to do just that, as the Pirates turned to Santana in the ninth to close out a 4-2 win over the Rays. He walked one and needed 24 pitches to get through the outing, and I think it's fair to say that Santana isn't going to be a lights-out closer. But he does appear to be the closer right now, and if you need saves, take him. | | Hunter Goodman, C, Rockies (36%) – If Herrera isn't available in your league and you don't have an absolute must-start catcher, you need to go add Goodman right now. He was one of the biggest risers in Scott's rankings update this week , and he's certainly been one of the most pleasant surprises at a position typically short on them. He has started all five games for the Rockies so far and has homered off Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler so far, representing the only two runs those two have given up in their starts. That's pretty impressive! Goodman has legit power for any position, and if he's going to keep playing every day for the Rockies, it might not take long for him to be a top-12 catcher. | | | | Wednesday's standouts | | Tarik Skubal, Tigers @SEA: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Well, that's kinda disappointing. I don't think there's anything to take from it, you just expect a lot more from Skubal in Seattle. On the other hand, 23 swinging strikes on 93 pitches is pretty bonkers, so again, there's nothing to take from this. Stuff happens. | | Garrett Crochet, Red Sox @BAL: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – It has not been a soft landing for Crochet, but he held his own against the Rangers in his Red Sox debut and then dominated the Orioles Wednesday. That's the deepest he's ever gone in a start, and he held his velocity well enough deep into the start, hitting 96.3 mph on his final sinker of the night. I still have some minor lingering questions about how Crochet's stuff (and arm, frankly) is going to hold up to six months of being asked to go deep into games for the first time ever, but he looks awesome right now, and we can't do anything about the future yet. | | Cole Ragans, Royals @MIL: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – Yeah, you'd prefer a bit more efficiency, but you knew coming in that command is a relative weak point for Ragans. But he was overwhelming in this one and looks like he's going to remain one of the best pitchers in baseball. We'll get a quality start out of him sooner or later. | | Dylan Cease, Padres vs. CLE: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – 10 whiffs is a little disappointing, but then you remember it's a very contact-heavy Guardians lineup and it looks a little better. Cease wasn't at his absolute best in this one, but he was still pretty good, at least good enough to get that line. His velocity was down a bit in this one, but that comes after it was up in his first outing, so I don't really think it's worth noting. His new changeup gives hitting another look, though it's clear he isn't commanding it super-well yet, so it's not quite a weapon yet. If he can get it there, that would be fun. | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. SF: 5 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 9 K – Valdez didn't seem to have the feel for his sinker, and against a lineup stacked with righties, that's going to be a problem. He turned to his curveball for a 40% usage rate, and it helped him generate a bunch of whiffs, at least. Not the outcome you're looking for from a top starting pitcher, but the strikeouts help make up for it at least a little bit. | | Hunter Greene, Reds vs. TEX: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Coming off a breakout season, Greene looks even better than ever, somehow. His fastball velocity is up yet again, as he averaged 100 mph with the pitch in this one – and it wasn't even his most dominant offering, as he generated a ridiculous 12 swinging strikes on 27 sliders. He generated weak contact with all three of his pitches, and that was the key to his breakout last season. If he's doing that again consistently, anyone who bought in is going to look pretty smart for as long as he stays healthy. | | Blake Snell , Dodgers vs. ATL: 4 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – I try to rank my standouts in roughly the order I rank them for the rest of the season (with certain exceptions to highlight truly exceptional performances), and I really wrestled with Greene vs. Snell. Both have huge upside and plenty of risk, both of the performance and injury kind. I've always been a bit of a Snell skeptic, so I settled on putting Greene above him, but that doesn't necessarily reflect concern about Snell. Though that is mostly because I expect these kinds of frustrating outings to be a regular occurrence with Snell. Because I have a long memory and access to his history as a pitcher. | | Freddy Peralta, Brewers vs. KC: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – Peralta identified and solved a mechanical problem that limited his fastball effectiveness last season, and the early returns are pretty terrific so far. He had seven whiffs on that fastball in this one and 19 overall, adding another seven – on seven swings! – with his curveball, which has been phenomenal for him through two starts. It's only two starts, but Peralta looks exceptionally good right, and I'm glad I started to talk myself into him as spring went on. | | Luis Castillo, Mariners vs. DET: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – His velocity remains down and may never come back, but I don't think Castillo is just fully finished as a must-start Fantasy option. You just have to recalibrate your expectations, and as long as you don't expect him to be an ace, he won't disappoint you. He looked solid in this one – not great, but solid – and I expect that's what he'll be moving forward more often than not. | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals vs. LAA: 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Our friend Nick Pollack over at PitcherList.com has a saying for this kind of start: "Careful, Icarus." Gray was cruising through six innings, with nine strikeouts and only one run allowed on just 75 pitches, so of course they brought him back out for the seventh. He gave up a couple of hits, hit Nolan Schanuel , and then gave up a first-pitch grand slam to Logan O'Hoppe to end his start. The line won't reflect it, obviously, but this was an outstanding performance from Gray and a generally pretty promising showing. His velocity was even back to 2024 levels after being down this spring and in his first start. There might even be a buy-low opportunity here. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees vs. ARI: 6 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K – Rodon looked more like last year's version with his pitch mix, as he leaned much more heavily on his four-seamer than in his first start. And that probably isn't a great thing seeing as he was sitting at 93 mph in this one, down 2.4 mph. Of course, his newer pitches just weren't working in this one, so the return to his old ways makes some sense. I still like the fact that he has the expanded arsenal to rely on if he needs it, but his command needs to be a lot better than it was here to make it all work. | | Mackenzie Gore, Nationals @TOR: 5 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – "Fooled you!" That was kind of the theme of Wednesday's action, as every pitcher who was great in their first start was terrible, and vice versa, seemingly. Of course, that's the thing with pitchers like Gore: The problem has never been a lack of talent, it's always been a lack of consistency. The Blue Jays stacked their lineup with righties, who Gore has actually handled better in his career, and it didn't matter – they had nine batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph, and had two outs on batted balls with an expected batting average of at least .670, so this could have been even worse. There's plenty of upside here still, but Gore has been teasing us for years, and it looks like 2025 could be another example of it. | | Yusei Kikuchi, Angels @STL: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 6 K – That's two quality starts in a row to kick off the season for Kikuchi, though neither was especially impressive. He danced around poor control in this one and ended up being pretty useful, which is hardly a worst-case scenario for Kikuchi. He's still prioritizing his slider like he did after the trade to the Astros last season, and while he didn't generate many swings and misses with it today, I tend to think the process will work out for him. | | Ryan Pepiot, Rays vs. PIT: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Pepiot was dominant in his first start, and much less so this time around. He wasn't bad, but if you were hoping the first start was the sign of Pepiot making the leap, this was a little disappointing, to be certain. His changeup probably spent a bit too much time in the strike zone, leading to eight balls in play with a 91.1 mph average exit velocity and just four swinging strikes, which isn't what you're looking for. Doing a better job keeping that pitch down and out of the strike zone would probably have led to better results, and that should be a pretty small adjustment. The problem is, like with Gore, consistency has been an issue for Pepiot, so you can't exactly bet on him fixing it the next time out. But I'll probably start him against the Angels, at least. | | Jeffrey Springs, Athletics vs. CHC: 3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – Continuing with our theme for the day, Springs dominated in his first start and then was completely pedestrian this time around. There was a little bit of bad luck in this one, as the Cubs got hits on four separate batted balls with an exit velocity below 80 mph, though all four were of the "soft line drive" variety that typically land in for hits. But Springs also wasn't locating well, so I don't want to make it seem like this was just about the BABIP Gods forsaking him. The truth is, if Springs doesn't have his best changeup working, he doesn't have a lot else going on for him, and that might be the answer here. | | Clay Holmes, Mets @MIA: 4.2, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – This wasn't a bad start, but after all that hype this spring, you were hoping for at least five innings against the lowly Marlins , right? Holmes hasn't been especially impressive in his first couple of starts, though he did at least showcase his expanded arsenal this time, with his cutter and changeup accounting for 45% of his pitches. But only six whiffs against a lefty-heavy lineup kind of highlights my concerns about Holmes' transition to the rotation and how his relative struggles against lefties might limit him. It's too early to write him off, and this start was an improvement. But it still wasn't very good. | | Landen Roupp, Giants @HOU: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 8 K – There was a little bit of hype around Roupp when he made the rotation, and we saw flashes of why in this one, as he generated 11 whiffs with his curveball to help lead to a strong strikeout rate. And his sinker and changeup have similar enough movement profiles that you could see that being an effective combo for him. But his command was all over the place, and while that hasn't historically held him back too much, there wasn't enough here to recommend him as a "run-out-and-grab-him" target for waivers. | | Jameson Taillon, Cubs @ATH: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Now that's a pretty good start – and it fits with our theme because Taillon was terrible in his debut. That's just kind of how things work for Taillon, who combines middling upside with frustrating inconsistency. He'll be useful at times, but I don't think I want to use him for an upcoming gauntlet that has the Rangers, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Phillies if he stays on turn. No thank you! | | Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers – I want to say that, of course, nobody was worried about Chourio's slow start. But I know that's not true, so I'll just say nobody should have been worried about Chourio's slow start. He hit his first homer Wednesday as part of a three-hit game and is suddenly hitting .286 with a .500 slugging percentage. Small sample-size theater! | | Oneil Cruz, SS, Pirates – Cruz looks pretty awesome right now, as he homered and stole another base Wednesday, giving him six on the season. He had three hard-hit balls, too, including two over 108 mph, and he's been making plenty of contact too, with just a 23% strikeout rate. It's too early to say anything for sure (he says for the 40th time this week), but if Cruz were breaking out, this is what it would look like. | | Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox – In my piece Wednesday, on Week 1 developments that might matter, I cited Devers' much-diminished bat speed as something that, again, might matter. Entering play Wednesday, his average swing speed was down to 70.6 mph from 72.5 last season, and given his spring shoulder issues, that's pretty alarming. If it remains the case, of course. But Devers had two batted balls of 109.5 mph and another at 96.6 Wednesday, with three of his four swings on balls in play coming in over 70.6 mph. Just like the slow start wasn't proof that Devers is toast, this too isn't proof that he's bad. But I won't need much to believe, given the track record. | | Anthony Volpe, SS, Yankees – Volpe absolutely loves getting off to a start to the season that I have absolutely no faith in being real. He homered for the fourth time in six games Wednesday, a majestic 337-foot blast that would only have been a homer in Yankee Stadium and George M. Steinbrenner Field. I know you don't get style points for hitting longer homers, but … c'mon. He still doesn't hit the ball hard and still doesn't make enough contact to overcome it. If someone wants to buy into Volpe's hot start, I'd be happy to trade him right now. | | Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals – Another name from that early-season column, Arenado has been a notable bat speed riser so far, and we're seeing it show up in his production. He had two more hits Wednesday against the Angels, bringing his average to .391 with a 1.109 OPS. It's too early to say Arenado is back, but he's showing us what we would need to see if he was. | | News and notes | | The Orioles might wait until the weekend to activate Gunnar Henderson instead of Thursday. He's coming back from that intercostal strain, but they might prefer to give him an extra day off since the O's play a day game Thursday. No concerns here. | | Freddie Freeman was out for a third straight game, as expected. He's hoping to return Friday against the Phillies. | | Trea Turner returned to the lineup Wednesday. He missed a few games with lower back spasms, but looked no worse for the wear, going 3 for 5 with an RBI. | | Corey Seager is still dealing with some lingering calf soreness. | | Bryan Reynolds has been dealing with right triceps soreness that impacts his throwing. That's why he's been limited to DH duties lately. | | Tomoyuki Sugano has been cleared to make his next start this weekend in Kansas City. He left his debut after experiencing cramping in both of his hands. | | The Dodgers acquired Esteury Ruiz in exchange for right-hander Carlos Duran. He had some serious hype a few years back, but I don't think we need to worry about him until he actually finds some playing time. | | | | | | | | Final Four® Coverage | | USL | CBS Sports HQ is your final stop for Final Four® coverage all week long! Stay up to date with the latest news, analysis and game previews leading up to that one shining moment.
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