Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-28-25 |
Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound |
The overall mood in the forex markets remains one of indecision, with major currencies largely range-bound. Yen is attempting a mild rebound after Tokyo's CPI figures came in stronger than expected, with core-core inflation rising to 2.2% yoy. However, the Japanese currency is still the worst performer of the week, reflecting the broader uncertainty over BoJ’s next move. Domestically, the sharp surge in rice prices—up 92.4% yoy—will likely be dismissed by BoJ as a temporary shock stemming from supply issues. What will matter more for policy direction is whether the uptick in rents and service-sector inflation, driven by rising wages, proves to be more persistent. At the same time, BoJ Summary of Opinions revealed a clear concern among board members over downside risks from US tariffs and global economic instability. Even though BoJ remains on a path toward further rate hikes, the timing of the next move is now more uncertain. The central bank may opt to delay any action to better assess the economic fallout from global trade policies..... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.35; (P) 150.75; (R1) 151.45; More... No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance is still expected from 150.92 to complete the corrective recovery from 146.52. On the downside break of 149.53 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. However, firm break of 150.92 will argue that fall from 158.86 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar | 2.20% | 1.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Apr | -22.2 | -24.7 | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Feb | -0.30% | 1.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan | -16.8B | -17.4B | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q4 F | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q4 | -16.7B | -18.1B | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Mar | 102.6 | 101.7 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Feb | 10K | 5K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Feb | 6.20% | 6.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Mar | 97 | 96.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar | -10.5 | -11.4 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Mar | 6.8 | 6.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F | -14.5 | -14.5 | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income Feb | 0.40% | 0.90% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Feb | 0.50% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Feb | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Feb | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb | 2.70% | 2.60% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Mar F | 57.9 | 57.9 |
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