Yen Slides as BoJ Slashes Growth Outlook; Investor Resilience Faces ISM Test
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-1-25 |
Yen Slides as BoJ Slashes Growth Outlook; Investor Resilience Faces ISM Test |
Yen weakened broadly today following the BoJ’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, while significantly downgrading its growth projections for the current fiscal year. Inflation outlook was also softened, with risks of undershooting the 2% target increased, albeit slightly. This backdrop suggests that while BoJ remains on a slow tightening path, policymakers may take a more cautious approach in the near term. The prospect of a rate hike in June now appears less likely unless global trade negotiations between the US and its partners make meaningful progress. Elsewhere, Wall Street showed surprising resilience overnight. After initially tumbling on the back of an unexpected Q1 contraction in US GDP, DOW and S&P 500 managed to close in positive territory, while NASDAQ was little changed. Fed rate expectations were also little changed, with markets still pricing in a 97% chance of a hold in May and a 66% chance of a rate cut in June. Investor sentiment, while shaken, has not broken—at least not yet. Attention now shifts to the upcoming ISM manufacturing survey today and tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll report.... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.42; (P) 142.81; (R1) 143.45; More... USD/JPY's rebound from 139.87 short term bottom resumed by breaking through 144.02 today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 139.87 to 144.02 from 141.96 at 146.11. But still, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds. On the downside, firm break of 141.96 will argue that the rebound has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48.7 | 48.5 | 48.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 | 3.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Mar | 6.90B | 3.10B | 2.97B | 2.85B | | 03:03 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Index Apr | 31.2 | 34 | 34.1 | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Mar | 1.90% | 1.60% | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Mar | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Mar | 65K | 65K | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 44 | 44 | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr | 204.80% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25) | 221K | 222K | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Apr | 46.3 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 50.7 | 50.7 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr | 47.9 | 49 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Apr | 70.2 | 69.4 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Apr | 44.7 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.70% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B | 88B |
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