Markets Lifted by US-China Trade Thaw Hopes, But All Eyes on US Jobs Report
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-2-25 |
Markets Lifted by US-China Trade Thaw Hopes, But All Eyes on US Jobs Report |
Markets trade on a cautiously optimistic in Asian session, supported by fresh signs that US-China trade tensions may be starting to thaw. China's Commerce Ministry said the US has repeatedly expressed interest in reopening negotiations, adding that Beijing is "evaluating" these overtures. This marks the most constructive public tone from Beijing since the US enacted sweeping tariffs in April, raising hopes that some form of de-escalation could follow. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House adviser Kevin Hassett both echoed this optimism. Hassett told CNBC there have been informal discussions across both governments, and China’s recent move to ease duties on select US goods was interpreted as a possible opening gesture. Despite the improving geopolitical mood, FX markets remain directionless outside of continued weakness in Yen following BoJ’s dovish posture and downgraded growth forecasts. Kiwi and Euro are also under mild pressure, while commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie are faring better, alongside Sterling. Dollar and Swiss Franc are mixed in the middle. This price action hints at budding risk-on sentiment, but conviction is still lacking ahead of today’s key US jobs report.... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3804; (P) 1.3834; (R1) 1.3883; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.3903 resistance holds. Below 1.3768 temporary low will resume the decline from 1.4791 to 1.3727 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.3903 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.4086). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Mar | 9.60% | 0.70% | 0.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Apr | -4.80% | -2.00% | -3.10% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Mar | 2.50% | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 0.80% | 0.80% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Y/Y Q1 | 3.70% | 3.70% | | 07:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Apr | 48.7 | 48.9 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48.2 | 48.2 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48 | 48 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr F | 48.7 | 48.7 | | 08:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar | 6.10% | 6.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr P | 2.10% | 2.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr P | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Apr | 130K | 228K | | 12:30 | USD | Average Weekly Hours Apr | 34.2 | 34.2 | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Apr | 4.20% | 4.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Mar | 4.20% | 0.60% |
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