Aussie Inflation Set to Cement RBA May Cut; Month-End Calm Prevails
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-29-25 |
Aussie Inflation Set to Cement RBA May Cut; Month-End Calm Prevails |
The forex markets are generally holding steady today, with all major pairs and crosses bounded within yesterday's range. While month-end lull is at play, caution is also dominating sentiment as traders prepare for a heavy barrage of economic data scheduled from Wednesday through Friday. Key reports include US GDP and non-farm payrolls, along with Eurozone GDP and CPI flash estimates. Also, in the upcoming Asian session, Australia’s Q1 inflation report will be a major highlight. Focus will be on whether the closely watched trimmed mean CPI falls back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since 2021. If realized, this would solidify expectations for a 25bps rate cut in May, a view that has become the base case for three of Australia’s big four banks. Some speculation persists about the possibility of a larger 50bps cut by RBA, especially given mounting trade risks. But many analysts argue that such a move would risk sending an unnecessary panic signal to markets. Still, any deep downside surprise in tomorrow's inflation data could quickly shift those odds..... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8159; (P) 0.8239; (R1) 0.8280; More…. No change in USD/CHF's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038 short term bottom. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr | -0.10% | -0.20% | -0.40% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment May | -20.6 | -26 | -24.5 | -24.3 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar | 3.60% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.90% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Apr | 93.6 | 94.5 | 95.2 | 95 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr | -11.2 | -10.7 | -10.6 | -10.7 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Apr | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr F | -16.7 | -16.7 | -16.7 | | 12:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Mar P | -162.0B | -146.3B | -147.9B | | 12:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Mar P | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.30% | | 13:00 | USD | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Y/Y Feb | 4.80% | 4.70% | | 13:00 | USD | Housing Price Index M/M Feb | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Apr | 87.1 | 92.9 |
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